Scotland (3) v France (4/11)

When is it all going to fall in place for Scotland? That’s the question that must drive Andy Robinson silly at night and he’ll have to work dam hard to find an answer against France, who suddenly have the challenge of reasserting their claims for the 6 Nations Title following the impressive exploits of Wales. 

Les Bleus did little to dispel the tag of tournament favourites against Italy in week 1, giving up 60% of the ball and 66% of territory but still making the most of the chances they had, running in four tries from their best four breaks and winning by a comfortable 18 points.

Given that they lacked training time before the Italy match, Saint Andre should be perfect happy with the performance as a springboard, although both he and Captain Theirry Dusatoir said that more was needed to beat Ireland – who they would have played but for postponement – on Week 2.  

The postponement of their game in Paris against Ireland would have been seen as a hindrance to many but in hindsight it should allow for more coaching time between Saint Andre and his players – they have now had four weeks at Marcoussis together.

It’ll be interesting to see what effect that has on the French, with Saint Andre’s appointment generally expected to improve the team as a whole – and it’ll be interesting to see whether he opts once again for a more pragmatic approach like at times against Italy, or whether Les Bleus take the game to the Scots.

With the home side starting in receipt of upto 8 points one would have this as a gimme for France and it will be disappointing if they can’t be winning here but it would be unwise to assume that Scotland’s recent scorelines are a true reflection of their performances.

They dominated the stats against England - 238 passes completed compared to 72; 62 tackles made compared to 142; 123 rucks and mauls won compared to 51; 33 attacks in the opposition 22 compared to eight; and more than 35 minutes in possession compared to 24 – while they held Wales to just 3 points during the first half at the Millenium Stadium before capitulating once again late on.

France “should” win, but taking 4/11 is a dangerous ploy and much more value lies in a win by 1-12 points, which has been the case on two of the last three matches between the two sides.

Advice

4 pts France to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)

6 Nations 2012 - Ireland (1/12) v Italy (12)

With all of the hullabaloo on what’s seen by many as an early Grand Slam decider between England and Wales later on today, it would be easy to forget that Ireland are playing Italy today but Declan Kidney’s side get a chance to put the first points on the board in the 6 Nations.

Both sides will possibly feel aggrieved not to have won their openers – Declan Kidney’s side were well backed for success in this tournament and to beat what was seen my many (including yours truly) as a weakened Wales on Sunday but a costly late error from Stephen Ferris, whose tip tackle prevented Leigh Halfpenny with the winning penalty, threw away victory for them at the last moment, while Tobias Botes missed two kicks to win the game for Italy with awful efforts.

While the manner of defeat was very hard on Ireland, it has to be remembered that victory wasn’t undeserved for the Welsh, who travelled to Dublin missing Gethin Jenkins (knee), Luke Charteris (wrist), Alun Wyn Jones (toe), Matthew Rees (calf strain) and Lloyd Burns (neck), and flanker Dan Lydiate.

That said their level of play should be too high for even this Italy side, which has looked improved on recent outfits. They should have beaten England (as said above) while they had more possession than they’d previously had for a long while against France and came close to the tryline while never looked overly likely to get there.

Jacuqes Brunel is trying to get Italy to play a more expansive style of Rugby and it showed with their 12 offloads in the tackle than France last week, equal to Ireland, Wales and England put together, while they had 60% of possession and 66% of territory.

Wheter that means they’ll actually be now a tougher team to beat at home as well as on the road is to be seen, but this is another acid test and it’s pretty impossible to see them taking a win from Dublin. When looking at this game from a betting perspective, two trends become clear.

Italy are very strong in the first half - Italy have scored the first try of the match in six of their last 12 matches and their 12-6 lead against England was the fourth time in their last 6 matches they’ve not lost at the break – but also tend to be much weaker in the second half, having been obliterated in the second half against Ireland, Australia, Scotland, and England in recent months.

That makes the 8/11 on Ireland giving away 8 points on the second half handicap more than good enough for this game, while a wager on them making 29 or more points could also come in.

Advice

2 pts Ireland -7.5 on 2^nd half handicap (8/11 Bet365)

2 pts Ireland to score 28 points or more (5/6 Stan James) 

6 Nations 2012 - England (8/5) v Wales (4/6)

Wales’s last win at Twickenham was in 2008 but Warren Gatland’s side have improved a large amount since then and look to have an excellent chance of claiming their 20^th Triple Crown there today.

This is the first time in years that Wales travel to Twickenham as favourites but it’s for good reason – they seem to be the better side going into this game. Over the past five months Wales have been steadily climbing through the ranks in World Rugby, with several impressive performances in the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand seeing them gain a new army of admirers.

The most significant wins during this time both came against Ireland, and both were hugely impressive, the extra fitness showing during the second half of their World Cup quarter final in Wellington, while composure and nerve took them to a 23-21 win in Dublin with several key figures out of the side.

They may have lost to South Africa, France and Australia in the World Cup but all three teams could claims to be a fair bit stronger than England in their current state and they had valid excuses for all three defeats.

A wrongly missed James Hook penalty, along with a failed Rhys Priestland drop-goal attempt from in front of the posts, snatched victory away from them, while that infamous red card for captain Sam Warburton and an injury to prop Adam Jones hampered them when they were so unlucky to go down by a point to France.

Both games against Australia saw them go down valiantly in defeat while they missed key players on both occasions – injury saw them bereft of Jonathan Davies, props Adam Jones and Paul James and lock Alun Wyn-Jones, while James Hook and Mike Phillips had club commitment’s – and they’ve since bounced right back with wins over Ireland and Scotland, who they both had to break down the hard way after long sticky spells.

That composure will be needed to beat England but one couldn’t failed to be impressed with their 13 minute burst of 3 tries against a Scotland side that robbed themselves of victory against the English in Week one.

With the side now coming close to full strength – captain Sam Warbuton looks set to start, although even he may be upstaged by the return of Alyn Wyn Jones in the lineout against a side that lost the ball three times against Italy, and the fact that George North has shrugged off an ankle knock suffered against Scotland.

The 4/6 on offer is just a little short but still well worth taking, with the 1-12 point winning option looking like a great addition to the portofilio given that New Zealand and South Africa are the only visiting teams to have scored more than 20 points at Twickenham since 2009 – a pointer towards unders in the match points if you’re so inclined.

England are unbeaten in two and many recent sides have been pragmatic but the two wins were especially unconvincing and much improvement is needed. They’ve had two games to gel together, although this is still a hugely inexperienced new side  - seven of the starting XV boast three caps or fewer – and we still don’t know if they were any better than Martin Johnston’s side – recent evidence could not conclusively say that they were. One can never underestimate the factor of Twickenham in this encounter but it has to be taken into perspective with the teams playing.

They could well have lost against both Scotland and Italy – it’s not hard to argue that they should have lost both – with Scotland having a try disallowed and blowing a whole load of chances, while Italy’s Tobais Botes missed two kickable penalties to win the game for the Azzuri.

They’ll be a harder team to beat today with Owen Farell (who has been one of the stars of the past year for Saracens and England) wisely trusted with kicking duties, along with the starting places of Manu Tuilangi and Ben Morgan hopefully enlisted to help in midfield – England made only one linebreak against Italy.

While those improvements should see a close game, it’s hard not to think that this is the visitors best chance of winning at Twickenham since 2008 and they can take it with both hands on their way to a 21^st triple crown.

Advice

5 pts Wales (4/6 general)

2 pts Wales to win by 1-12 (13/8 Ladbrokes) 

Champions League 2011 - 12 - Ante Post Update (Last 16)

Barcelona have won the Champions League in three of the last 6 seasons and will have their army of backers at 6/4 to make it four out of the last 7, in a season that some have claimed lacks depth. Manchester United, Porto, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax and Valencia have all failed to make it through, while Manchester City were widely expected to make it through off the back of encouraging Premier League progress and a summer spending splurge.

Given that the top three in England and France are now absent. It’s hard not to see why some are levelling the above accusation, but the tournament will still take plenty of winning and it’s much more a case of things having opened up. It should be remembered that of the above, United failed to beat Basle, Porto were in a tough section anyway while disappointing, and Borussia Dortmund couldn’t hack it away, Ajax blew many decent chances in a double header against Lyon, and Valencia were against Leverkusen and Chelsea, a section that was always going to be hard to pass.

Winning the Champions League was never going to be easy anyway, with not only Barcelona, but now Real Madrid bossing European football, and many will see Barcelona as the team to beat, which is no surprise given their hugely impressive dominance last season and a frankly astonishing home record which has seen them avoid defeat at the Camp Nou since October 2009, and that’s not a position I’d be arguing with.

However, given that we’ve only just entered the last 16, a best price of 7/5 makes little appeal as an outright betting proposition despite the fact that their 3-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen in Germany means that they’re practically in the Quarter finals. In any case, the Messi top scorer double we have seems just as likely and at 6’s, that can be left to ride.

In any case, tougher tests still await for them – Leverkusen were missing many first team players and had won just 1 in six – while no team’s retained the title since AC Milan in 1990. That may be more of a statistical anomaly than not but the various circumstances involved in making it so can de rail even the best of teams which is why followers of Guardiola’s side would be better off backing on a game by game basis.

Arch rivals Real Madrid have been beaten by Barcelona 5 times under Jose Mourinho’s but steadily the gap has been closing to the point that one cannot be sure of victory for Pep Guardiola’s side are probably fairly priced at 11/4 given that they’re 10 points clear in La Liga.

A goal difference of +17 indicates not only a serious attack but a rock hard defence, and while no team wants to visit the Bernabeu, a record of three wins on the road says a lot for Jose Mourniho’s all starts.

Christiano Ronaldo has reached yet another level this season, breaking the clasico hoodoo while topping La Liga’s scoring charts, although he has several other scoring options that he can turn to if needed, with the likes of Karim Benezema, Angel Di Mari and Gonzalo Higuain all capable of breaking the tightest of situations, while they’ve won their last 26 outside the El Clasico.

Barcelona held them to just a goal in the semi-final last year but they’ve clearly closed the gap right up since then and they still may not have to meet the holders, in which case few in Europe can hope to match up to them. A trip to CSKA Moscow isn’t going to be a walk in the park but they’ve got the class to do it and the Russians were beaten by Lille and Inter at home.

Next we have Bayern Munich, cut into 13/2 after the exodus of many familiar names from the completion. They’ve arguably been the most impressive qualifiers so far, having beaten Manchester City and Napoli when they needed to, while strolling past the hapless Villarreal.

While they didn’t have the glittering records that either of the big two had, it should be remembered that a second string team was sent to Eastlands with the team already through and qualified -  Manuel Neuer, Philipp Lahm, Mario Gomez, Franck Ribery and Thomas Mueller all didn’t make the trip while it was clear the team were in second gear,  and they should have won in Naples but for missing plenty of chances, including a penalty save, and as we’ll come to later, there’s lots to like about Napoli.

The drawback? The wheels have stuttered since then, if not quite come off. Now 4 points of the summit of the Bundesliga after a 0-0 draw against Freiburg, having more worryingly lost all of their matches against fellow title contenders, a worrying statistic considering the quality of opposition they’ll have to face assuming they get past Basle (Milan and Barcelona are already into the quarters for example, while neither of Benfica or Zenit will be an easy tie).

That said, they could have had worse ties than Basel – who are a difficult team themselves to face but also one that have drawn their last three matches – and their general quality is right up there with the best. 6 wins, two draws and a defeat is hardly awful form, and the 20/1 we have outright on them can be left to ride in the hope they make the home final at the Allianz Arena.

AC Milan are through to the quarter finals already thanks to their destrcution of Arsenal at the San Siro, which was admittedly very impressive. Infact it’s hard to fault their claims at 12/1, given how well they performed in two games against Barcelona in the group stages and their frontline – Pato, Ibrahimovic, and Robiniho – should scare even the best of defences, although tougher tasks surely await than Arsenal, who are flattered by 4^th in the Premier League.

Chelsea make no appeal at 14/1 though. Out of form since beating Valencia and Manchester City twice in the space of a week, Andre Villas Boas’s men have failed to win 6 of their last 10, scoring just 13 goals in that time.

They face a very tough task on their travels next week, with a first leg against Napoli, and the fact that they were held by Genk and beaten by Leverkusen after going 1 up does not bode at all well for them in the red hot atmosphere at Naples.

Of course they could well raise their game for the competition – it’s one of two trophies they have a realistic chance of winning – but the same can be said of their last 16 opponents and at 14/1 other teams have better claims.

One of those teams could well be Chelsea’s opponents Napoli (right), who look big at 40/1, a price almost certainly based on their disappointing League season which sees them sit sixth in the Serie A table, a full 13 points of leaders AC Milan.

The basis to that has probably been the 5 home draws along with the dropped points against Siena (only 1 from home and away), Cesna and Catania, but they’ve been excellent against the bigger teams this season and it’s hard not to forget how they took 4 points off City (vastly superior overall to Chelsea despite the 2-1 defeat they suffered at Stamford Bridge) in the Group stages, while they gave Bayern two big scares home and away.

Their recent form has improved a fair bit – They have just 2 defeats in their last 10 matches and a comprehensive win against Fiorentina is a big improvement on their away results compared to the disappointing losses beforehand – and their style of play (they averaged just 40% of possession during the group stages) means that they can in theory operate just as well away from home as they do in Naples, which spells trouble for their opponents.

Lyon hold a 1-0 advantage in their tie against APOEL but have hardly been settling Ligue 1 alight and still have the much more daunting proposition of going to Cyprus to negotiate – Zenit and Porto have been beaten there this year – before we can even start talking about winning the competition. Whatever happens, they’re likely to find at least one team too strong this year, and the same can probably be said about the Cypriots despite their admirable efforts.

Nobody will want to take either of Benfica or Zenit, and 125/1 might seem big for a team going to Portugal with a 1 goal lead, but the Portugese leaders too will feel confident about overturning the tie and with a price of 40/1 likely to be on offer about whoever gets through, it might be better to wait and see out the tie.

Marsellie and Inter are still to play but neither looks good enough this year – Inter’s ageing side are on the brink of slipping out of the top ranks of Italian football, which makes it 5 games in Serie A without a win, and Marsellie were held enough in their group to think there are a good few teams better than them.

Advice

1 pt each/way Napoli (40/1 general)

1 pt Napoli to reach final (16/1 Bwin)

1 pt Napoli to reach Semi Finals (5.2 Betfair)

Sunday Portfolio - 19th Febuary

3 pts Stoke, FA Cup Fifth Round (21/20 Paddy Power)

Stoke have been left with a mountain to climb in the Europa League after a 1-0 defeat at home against Valencia but they can enhance their trophy prospects with a win at Crawley Town to go through to the Quarter finals of the FA Cup.

The first non-league club to reach the fifth round of the FA Cup in almost 20 years when they played at Old Trafford last season, Crawley have done nothing but progress since and they now currently sit fifth in League Two, one point behind leaders Southend with two games in hand and have already left their mark on this completion by beating Bristol and Hull City.

Neither will present the same test that Stoke provide, and even though they’re on a pretty dreadful run of form it should be remembered that the last game they won in any completion was a similar assignment at Derby.

They may have lost 5 of their last 6 but they’ve hardly been porus – conceding one goal or fewer in six of their last nine away games – while Sunderland and Manchester United were very tough games for different reasons.

Having won five of their last six games at home in all competitions, there’s no reason that Crawley shouldn’t be very hard to beat as well, but Pulis’s side have plenty of strength in depth – Asmir Begovic is a solid goalkeeping option, while he can call upon Cameron Jerome and Kenwyne Jones- and can get back to winning ways here.

1 pt Treble, Liverpool, Stoke, Tottenham (3.41 Ladbrokes)

All 3 Premiership teams have what could be described as potentially tricky FA Cup ties but all 3 will have their eyes set on going close to winning the competition and odds of about 3/1 for the treble are certainly tempting.

Harry Redknapp’s Spurs have been thoroughly rejuvenated this season and gave one of their best Premier League performances for 2 or three years when beating up Newcastle 5-0, with Emmanuel Adebayor giving one of his best performances since joining the club.

Their defensive organization is also a major strongpoint, with two clean sheet wins on the way to making it here and wins to nil against Aston Villa, Bolton, Everton, Norwich and Sunderland in the Premier League for example.

They’ll probably need to be on their mettle to beat Stevenage, who have lost just one of their last 21 games, and the consistent promotion chasers (they come off the back of two promotions) will be fired up but Tottenham have plenty of nerve, guile and strength in depth (the likes of Kranjar, Saha, Nelsen and Sandro could start) which should see them through.

Liverpool have a potentially tricky tie with Brighton but are unbeaten at home in all competitions this season (won six, drawn nine) and should have enough to come through. Kenny Daglish’s enterprise has been rewarded in the Carling Cup with a run to the final and he can call upon the much maligned but sadly talented Luiz Saurez, Charlie Adam, Steven Gerrard, and Craig Bellamy, which should give the reds enough firepower to make it through to the quarter finals.

1 pt Draw/AC Milan, Serie A, (7/2 general)

AC Milan are one of two clubs realistically fighting for the Scudetto this season and the charge should be kept up with victory at Cesna but the 4/7 on them winning doesn’t look like great value.

It’s been close to a season defining week for Massimo Allegri’s side after what could only be described as a poor patch, with a come from behind 2-1 win at Udinese followed by a 4-0 romp against a dreadful Arsenal  at the San Siro in midweek that all but puts them into the quarter finals of the Champions League.

They should have more than enough to get past Cesna, who are relegation threatened having taken one point from the last 12, but an interesting statistic to note is that AC Milan have drawn 6 away at half time, while Cesna have drawn at the break, before going onto win just 2 of those games, which makes the 7/2 on the double rest very interesting.

2 pts Barcelona to win to Nil, La Liga (11/10 Ladbrokes)

It’s common belief that Barcelona seem to have lost the title race – even a number of the players and coach have accepted that Madrid’s galatcios seem to be too far infront to give up the points needed for a turnaround but they’ve still got 8 points in hand of Valencia, and should be well upto beating Unai Emery’s side once again to make it 30 unbeaten at home in La Liga.

Pep Guardiola’s side a little on the road this season, having been held against Villarreal, Espanyol and Valencia in recent weeks, along with a 3-2 defeat at Osasuna, but they were right back to their old self when impressively winning 3-1 at Leverkusen, and their home form remains probably the hardest to best in Europe.

Valencia – determined and classy in disproving the myth that good footballing teams could not win in a cold night at Stoke during midweek – tradionally have their struggles on the road, with only 4 wins away from the Mestalla this season, so a record of no wins in 11 against the Catalans isn’t likely to bettered at the Camp Nou.

Quotes of ¼ reflect how obvious many think the win will be, so getting the value out of the game is the tricky task. Barcelona have an outstanding double result record at home, with the champions ahead in 18 of their last 19 wins. A quick look through recent fixtures indicates that might not be the safest option, with Barcelona having been either held or behind in three of the last 5 meetings between the two.

What’s interesting to note aboue League meetings at the Nou Camp is that Barcelona have won three of the last 5 meetings to nil, while also letting in just 3 goals at the Nou Camp all season, which makes the 11/10 with Ladbrokes that they win to nil the recommended suggestion. 

Guest Post - Sun begins to rise on new F1 Season

Many who read this page look to March for only one thing – The Cheltenham Festival – and you’d be right to think so. But it also signals the start of the F1 season and a chance to not only look forward to new challenges, but also to reminisce about previous seasons gone by, as our guest blogger Sebastian Ampofo explains.

The sun rises at 8am in the Jerez track, the much-maligned F1 track which was to never host a race again following the debacle of the ’97 European Grand Prix and the podium celebrations. Instead, a new dawn on F1 occurs as there are new regulations, new drivers and a new look to the cars for this, the 2012 season.

First on track for the first test of the 2012 season in Jerez was the Caterham, the first car to be launched, with a new ‘platypus’ front wing. New regulations for this year means that the front end of the car and specifically the front wing, has to be lowered, so that accidents like Mark Webber’s in Valencia 2010 don’t happen frequently, where he went scarily airborne. Quite frankly, the front wing looks utterly horrible – Martin Brundle said, when referring to the over-zealous and over-complicated 2009 front wings (following the biggest rule changes to hit the sport in years at that time) that they’ll “need to be covered with brown bags” because they look so bad, and I suspect he’ll be saying the same thing this year. Even Adrian Newey, the Red Bull designer, has resorted to the stepped front wing. The only team which hasn’t resorted to his horrific wing, which looks like it’s been designed with Lego quite frankly, is McLaren. McLaren have decided to lower the whole of the front end of the chassis and their front wing takes a more natural curved contour, which in theory, should make air flow more consistent. But naturally, there will be less grip than last year due to the fact that the area under the front wing isn’t so high, so air is being channelled as much through the front of the car. But a bigger cause for concern for several of the teams, has to be the rear end.

Being the sport that it is, with every million spent in search of the next magic trick to find a winning half second, it’s no surprise that F1 isn’t a stranger to banned aids. For example, there was the banning of ABS, active suspension and traction control for 1994. There was the banning of traction control once more for 2008. And the banning of those mass dampers that Renault pioneered. This year, it’s the blown diffusers, which blow gases over the diffuser to maximise grip. It was a system that Red Bull pioneered, and since the ’10 European Grand Prix, most of the teams have tried to incorporate this blown diffuser. So it’s perhaps no surprise that Red Bull is alleged to be the team most affected by these rule changes as their whole car was built around the blown diffuser mechanism. So without the blown diffusers for this year, what will now be the pecking order for this year?

One may turn to last year’s British Grand Prix. The teams that weekend had to resort to cold-blowing of the diffuser, as off-throttle blowing was banned. Ferrari took the reigns that Alonso won their only race of the season. Any coincidence? Not really – as Ferrari has several updates that weekend, but Red Bull were still in the mix, despite Alonso’s dominant win; and as for McLaren – they had a weekend to forget with Button’s retirement and Hamilton starting to drift further from the pace, partly due to being in fuel management, and the fact that they weren’t extremely fast in the dry either. But we can’t say it is a definitive barometer of the performance for this year. Or can we?

Ted Kravitz from Sky Sports F1 tweeted a few days ago, reporting that Lewis Hamilton (see above left) said that McLaren were missing high speed downforce and Red Bull and Lotus looked quick. Of course what we don’t know is whether the loss of high speed downforce is relative, compared to the other teams, or whether in general, he’s saying the regulations have meant in reduction in rear-end grip. Frankly, the blown diffuser being banned is a change for the better. The cars were too grippy, Vettel was often opening his DRS mid-corner and the exhaust sounds sounded like a bag of rattling nails, especially Lotus Renault’s forward-facing, experimental but failed exhaust. But there’s no guarantee to say that the banning of the blown diffuser will mean a more equal field. Evidence suggests that in times of rule changes, Adrian Newey often triumphs (perhaps excluding the 1994 and 95 rule changes where they [Williams Renault] failed to win the Drivers’ Championship). For example, in 1998 with the narrower car width and grooved tyres, McLaren were exceedingly quick and despite the banning of their brake-steer system, were still reasonably faster than the advancing Ferraris; 2005 with the lower-capacity V10 engines and the more acute rear wing angles, and McLaren had a very quick car if unreliable, and Kimi Raikkonen had several stunning victories in that car including one at Monaco and one at one of the best races, in Suzuka, Japan. 

Adrian Newey is now at Red Bull. McLaren need to return to winning ways, and so do Ferrari, who have designed a functional and radical car to try and secure the title this year, and Mercedes, who must be feeling pressure to deliver a car that supplements the talent of both Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg.  They topped the timesheets in Jerez, but that has often proved to be a false guide, and it remains to be seen if this is a mirage, with the Germans running last year’s car albeit with new-spec tyres.

Other teams who need a revival this year are Lotus, who had a satisfactory year this year and slid down the table after having a podium in the first two races last year, courtesy of Petrov and Heidfeld, due to their failed forward-facing exhaust. And in particular, Williams. The last time they won a race was 2004 in the hands of Montoya, and since then, it has been a steady and gradual decline for a team who last won a Constructors’ Championship in 1997. They’ve got Maldonado and ironically, Senna, on onboard – here’s hoping that he can prove his talent and quality and drive this team which has a lot of potential onboard, after a period of creative renewal. For sure, the sun has risen in Jerez for a new season. But it’s a long hard slog to go until the sun sets for the 2012 season in Abu Dhabi.

6 Nations 2012 - Wales (1/6) v Scotland (6)

World Cup semi-finalists Wales defied a long injury list to gain a deserved, if not rather fortunate win in Dublin against hot favourites Ireland and suddenly talk of a Grand Slam is back again, with today’s game against Scotland expected to be a breeze by many.

Much of this stems from the Scots increasingly frustrating failure to score tries – Andy Robinson’s side have scored only four tries in their last five matches, drawing a blank against England (twice) and Argentina – results that arguably cost them their place in the quarter finals of the World Cup (the group if one wants to be more harsh) and then the Calcutta Cup against England at Murrayfield.

George North was outstanding against Ireland in Week 1

It’s not lost on many who watched the game how much possession the Scots had against the English, with Ross Rennie’s failed pass practically a sitter in football terms, Richie Gray’s offload going array, and then Greig Laidlaw missing my inches, with the TMO unable to determine whether or not he had made the touchdown and the referee failing to bring play back to the advantage point beforehand.

If that hasn’t convinced you of their dominance, let the Guardian’s Paul Rees have a go; 238 passes completed compared to 72; 62 tackles made compared to 142; 123 rucks and mauls won compared to 51; 33 attacks in the opposition 22 compared to eight; and more than 35 minutes in possession compared to 24. Wasteful isn’t the word.

With Wales generally assumed to be a better side than England – They gave France much more of a game than Martin Johnson’s side did at the World Cup, and Stuart Lancaster’s team, for all they’ve won their opening two games, are still in transition to an extent – this looks to be a hopeless task for the Scots away from home.

Wales were a little fortunate against Ireland – their win did come from Stephen Ferris’s moment of madness in front of the posts with 51 seconds left on the clock – but in no way undeserving, with their 60%+ share of possession and territory not complimented by a half fit Rhys Priestland  missing two penalties and a conversion, while goalkicking hero Lee Halfpenny missed the conversion on George North’s try.

Nevertheless, that win was no more than they deserved and on home solid it’s simple a question of whether they can pull away enough to cover the biggest handicap start ever given to Scotland in a 6 Nations match between the two – between 11 and 13 points.

With the Scots failing to score tries and the Welsh generally rampant, gut instinct says yes, especially with them having won by more than 12 in three of their last 5 meetings at Cardiff. However that’s a big handicap to pass and more value might be found in backing Wales to score 27 points or more.

Gatland’s men have scored 30, 26, 31, and 24 points in their four most recent wins against Scotland and they seem to be hitting a real peak in performance right now, with their win against Ireland just one of a few excellent attacking performances from their towering but surprisingly mobile backline, with George North and Jonathan Davies being two shining examples.

The return of Gethin Jenkins and Dan Lydiate could find another level in a side that’s already proven too strong for Ireland, and while Scotland should put up a strong show, this will be harder than being at Murrayfield against a team full of debutants and inexperienced players.

With Wales having an excellent second half scored – 23 of their last 31 have been scored in the last 40 – the second half handicap of 6 appeals more than the total equivalent and also the 8/11 on Gatland’s side winning both halves.

Advice

3.5 pts Wales to score 27 points or more (5/6 Ladbrokes)

2 pts Wales -6 on 2^nd half handicap (evs Ladbrokes) 

6 Nations 2012 - France (3/10) v Ireland (7/2)

Philippe Saint Andre faces his first real test as France coach when Ireland come to Paris on Saturday night, although it’s one he’s expected to pass by a best price of just 2/7 for his side to go and make it 14 wins in 15 meetings with the Irish.

Les Bleus did little to dispel the tag of tournament favourites against Italy in week 1, giving up 60% of the ball and 66% of territory but still making the most of the chances they had, running in four tries from their best four breaks and winning by a comfortable 18 points.

Wesley Fofana puts in a big hit

Given that they lacked training time before the Italy match, Saint Andre should be perfect happy with the performance as a springboard, although both he and Captain Theirry Dusatoir have said that they expect more this week – as will probably be needed – to beat Ireland.

The ominous fact may well be that they could still improve more on it if you take into account an extra week with the coach (as reffered to above), and more chance of the ball against an Ireland side who gave up 60% of possession against Wales – something Declan Kidney was very quick to use as a scapegoat afterwards – along with the all-important home advantage.

Declan Kidney’s side were well backed for success in this tournament and to beat what was seen my many – including yours truly – as  a weakened Wales on Sunday but a costly late error from Stephen Ferris, whose tip tackle prevented Leigh Halfpenny with the winning penalty, threw away victory for them at the last moment.

While the manner of defeat was very hard on Ireland, it has to be remembered that victory wasn’t undeserved for the Welsh, who travelled to Dublin missing Gethin Jenkins (knee), Luke Charteris (wrist), Alun Wyn Jones (toe), Matthew Rees (calf strain) and Lloyd Burns (neck), and flanker Dan Lydiate.

This is going to be at least as tough a test in Paris, where France haven’t tasted defeat for 9 whole games, although the Irish have bounced back from nine of their last 10 defeats in the 6 Nations with a win and also have 6 of their last eight wins on the road.

It could be said that Ireland are closing the gap between the two sides on recent performances – Les Bleus have won by three and four points on their last two visits to Dublin and Declan Kidney’s side won by only 7 in their World Cup warm ups, where it was to be assumed that Kidney’s side performed a long way below their best.

Other factors to consider would be the return of Keith Earls – Ireland’s top Tryscorer at the World Cup with 5 scores – to the thirteen, while Dimitri Yachvilli’s absence thanks to a back problem isn’t going to be helpful, for all that Morgan Parra scored 47 points during last year’s tournament and his partnership with Trinh Duc led to France’s Grand Slam in 2010.

With temperatures expected to be 6 below freezing, the pitch may also have a big point to play – indeed Vincent Clerc has already spoken of his fears – so this might be harder game than expected for both sides.  France should have the edge in Paris but a tight clash could be in the offing so look to either Ireland receiving 10 points or France to edge is by 1-12.

Advice

3 pts France to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Stan James)

6 Nations 2012 - Italy (10/3) v England (3/10)

England are the only team that Italy hasn’t beaten in the 6 Nations -There have been 17 Test matches involving the nations since 1991 with the Azzurri yet to taste success - but current circumstances will lead quite a few to believe that Italy will never get a better chance to take down Stuart Lancaster’s side.

The last meeting between the two saw Nick Malett’s side humiliated at Twickenham but as one would expect from the newest side in the tournament – After all, they’ve played just 12 tournaments – they struggled away from home and being back on home turf should even things up in their favour.

The huge changes that have occurred throughought England’s national team have been well documented, so it was just pleasing to see them come away from Scotland with a win, although it would be folly to assume that things will get any easier for them here.

David Denton attempts to break through the Scottish

Italy were beaten 30-12 by France in the opening weekend, but limited the hosts to fewer chances than many expected and once again impressed with the power of their forward pack against a large French scrum, and had plenty of territory in France’s own backyard, no mean feat considering their record at the Stade De France (they’re unbeaten in nine matches there now).

It’s not hard to argue that they played at least as well as Scotland did in defeat against Stuart Lancaster’s side, which may still be finding its feet despite that win, which did have a good deal of fortune given to it thanks to the error made by Dan Parks in the opening of the second half. The hosts will also feel aggrieved not to have gotten a TMO for Greig Ladlaw’s try, although that was small change compared to the chance that Ross Rennie blew late on with two either side of him.

Jacques Brunel is trying to get Italy to play a more expansive style of Rugby and it showed last week with their 12 offloads in the tackle than France last week, equal to Ireland, Wales and England put together, while they had 60% of possession and 66% of territory. The same performance against England will see a mighty close battle.

With a vastly more experienced team - Italy will field a total of 698 caps, with another 116 caps on the bench, compared to the 248 in England’s starting XV – it will be yet another baptism of fire for Lancaster’s men, and all seems set for a massive push.

It seems easy to pick on this new England side but things were never going to be quite so easy for them at Murrayfield and one couldn’t fault their commitment to defending their lead – however unfairly gained – during the second, half which continued a strong record that they’ve developed after the break. It should be remembered that it’s this kind of industry which the great England sides were built on though and another weekend should see them gel a little bit more.

With Italy generally being, a) Handicap kings (in their last 10 home games they’ve covered the handicap eight times), b) Extremely disciplined (they gave away only 6 penalties to France last week) & c) Improving all the time (they had more of the ball than France last week), a start of eight points makes a great amount of appeal - England's last two visits to Rome have resulted in two narrow victories by four and five points.

Those who believe that England won’t crumble to the Azzuri should be looking in the winning margin market, where Betfred will give you 8/5 that Stuart Lancaster’s side can win by 1-12 points. It’s a sign of Italy’s improvement that it’s no longer a banker, but it gives by far the most value on the three Lions.

Advice

3 pts England to win by 1-12 points (8/5 Betfred)

Superbowl XLVI - Preview

Many casual observers like yours truly will tune in tonight to watch one of the biggest events of the year anywhere - the 46th Superbowl - and for those who follow the sport more closely, some nostalgia trips might be on their way as in a repeat of 2008, the New England Patriots will be out to avenge their late 17-14 defeat to the New York Giants.

Eli Manning and Tom Brady, roundly expected to be the stars today, decided the last meeting. The extraordinary pass known as the Helmet Catch – blessed with its own Wikipedia article – during which included Manning escaping from the grasp of three Patriots defensive players, followed by Tyree making a leaping catch by pressing the ball against his helmet, denying a New England Patriots team who stood on the verge of completing the first unbeaten season since the Miami Dolphins in 1972.

Neither team has been perfectionists during this campaign, with the Patriots going a quite impressive 13-3 during the regular season, but they may be disappointed once again and 5/4 on the Giants taking the Vince Lombardi Trophy again might be the best bet for interest seekers.

At 9-7, they had an even worse regular season than four years ago but regular season form has been bucked on quite a few occasions coming to this occasion and it’s arguable that the Giants have actually been more impressive in the playoffs than 2008 if you consider their performances.

They’re only the second team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl after beating three opponents with better record in the regular season than them, most impressively when beating the Green Bay Packers and overturning an earlier defeat by a team who were 16-1 at that stage.

Indeed, their whole schedule in getting here was against high class teams New Orleans, New England, NY Jets, Atlanta, Dallas twice, San Francisco twice and Green Bay twice – and they lost just two of those games, underlining their penchant for going strongly against big teams.

Some will question the defence of the side which gave up 4,000 passing yards but the defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora perfmed admirably, with the former making 86 combined tackles and ranked fourth in the NFL with 16.5 sacks, earning him the only Pro Bowl selection on the Giants defence, while Umenyiora recorded 9 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.

Early season struggles saw them lose several games but opponents actually only scored 6 more points than them, while they tied in third for sacks - when the quarterback is tackled behind the line of scrimmage before he can throw a forward pass – and they can now boast a much more inform and fitter team.

5 of the last 6 superbowls have been won by the team with the weaker win rate over the duration of the campaign and they’ve gone from the sixth worst to the second best defensive unit, so there’s every reason to think that they’ll hold their own here.

With the underdogs having 12 wins in 45 Superbowls and three successful covers in the last 4, it’s a tricky dilemma about whether to go outright or just for the Giants +3, but either seems a good option, while a tight winning margin of 1-6 points is surely a runner. In addition to that, I don’t see either team making a huge amount of points – the hype over the defences has gone into overdrive- and a line of 53/5 points can be taken on.

The Patriots – led by the superb Tom Brady – blitzed their regular season opponents by more than 150 points (their final total to be infront of other teams was actually 171) and have the stats in their favour for this meeting, although whether they’re the certainties that the media think they are is a different question altogether.

Undoubtedly stopped by the pass rush which saw Bready sacked 5 times and hit 9 more back in 2008, they are in the same position of favourites, and pundits pick this time around, although the exact reasons seem fairly unclear.

One may be the fitness of Tom Brady – sidelined with an ankle injury for two weeks four years ago – although he was present for the 24-20 defeat, having been ahead with just a minute and a half to go, while several will point to the contrasts between the offence and defence, although with the Giants far improved since then that may be a false basis to work upon.

Much more relevant is the fact that only one sack has been allowed by the Patriots in the post season, which hints at lot of protection for Tom Brady, a potentially game changing factor for many. Should the Patriots win the game then he’d be odds on for the award and 13/10 that he does so isn’t a bad hedge at all.

Their tight ends - Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez – have all been excellent throughought the season and there’s always the decoy plan to save Gronowsky if a late ankle strain suffered at Baltimore has indeed taken its toll.

An average of 67 offensive plays per, game, with 26 runs during said period each time, may be part of the reason behind the form of players such as Jake Ballard. The tactical dilemma posted by ESPN’S John Clayton about from how much the Patriots will run is also a key pointer, with the Giants allowing 4.5 yards per run this year, but they can hold out for another Vince Lombardi trophy.

On another note, the second half outscores the first half on points by 275 to 195, so 20/23 about that eventuality happening tonight seems very reasonable as a special bet.

Advice

7.5 pts New York Giants (5/4 general)

1 pt Giants to win by 1-6 points (4/1 general)

Other

4 pts 2^nd half to be highest scoring half (20/21 general)

2.5 pts under 53 points (10/11 general) 

Sunday Portfolio - 5th Febuary

2 pts Manchester United, (9/5 Hills), Premier League (4PM Sky Sports 1 & SS1 HD), 1 pt 2-1 Manchester United (11/1 general)

Roberto Mancini may have been quietly hopeful of opening up a 2 or even three point gap through his side’s easy win over Fulham on Saturday but he may be quite disappointed if Manchester United can find a way through Chelsea on Sunday.

It can’t be forgotten that Chelsea beat Manchester City here but they’ve won just two of eight since and have lost as many times in their last seven league games (3) as they had in the previous 53 matches at Stamford Bridge (courtesy Opta).

Meanwhile Manchester United, despite a poor run of performances by the high standards set earlier in the season, have won their last three in the league and slowly acquired the best away record in the League, ahead of even rivals City.

It all sounds easy from there but the main problem will be overturning the home record that Chelsea have (they’re unbeaten in their last 9 against United here), but little separates the sides and times have changed.

More pertinent is the absence of Ashley Cole, suspended after his red card at Swansea. His opposite number Antonio Valencia destroyed Arsenal at times and has often been a) a handful in this fixture & b) Crucial to the form of Wayne Rooney on many occasions.

That’s also supplemented by the fact that as Michael Cox of Zonal Marking fame explains here, it’s the first time for a good while that Chelsea will be playing another left back, and they’ll have to shift someone else along into that position.

The Blues are also missing Didier Drogba, centre back John Terry and Ramires (who had a large part to play in Chelsea’s chances at the Bridge) , which leaves them in a weak position. United, beaten at Liverpool in the FA Cup, now have Nani and Wayne Rooney in the side, which gives them a crucial outlet for attacking options.

6 Nations 2012 - Ireland (8/15) v Wales (2)

If France are to fall short of expectations placed on them in this year’s 6 Nations, then the two teams that look best placed to take them on are Wales and France, who meet in one of the games that could well decide the tournament.

You’d imagine that all eyes would be on Wales after a sensational World Cup, where they defied the negative feeling that many had harboured with their inclusion in the “Group of Death” with a run that saw them come within a missed penalty of the final after several second half tries – indeed a major feature of their campaign was the fitness they gained from training in Ice Chambers before the tournament.

Ireland, so unlucky to suffer a defeat thanks to slack officiating when the two met in Cardiff last year, can once again count upon the form of their provinces to offer a solid title challenge and could have the possible edge here. Leinster look just as strong as last year when winning the title, while Munster and Ulster have put in fearsome performances not only at home but on the road too.

The loss of Brian O’Discoll will be a blow for general fans everywhere but there’s enough quality to replace him in the side all over and Ronan O’Gara’a agelessness has been one of the highlights of the Heineken Cup so far, while the same pack that destroyed Tri – Nations Champions Australia still remains. Annoyances for Ireland include the tragic loss of Keith Earls due to family illness, but there are few changes to the side that impressed at the World Cup.

Gatland’s side have been given a huge fillip by the return of  Rhys Priestland and Jamie Roberts but they are still missing Gethin Jenkins (knee), Luke Charteris (wrist), Alun Wyn Jones (toe), Matthew Rees (calf strain) and Lloyd Burns (neck), while flanker Dan Lydiate is still sidelined by an injury problem, his ankle providing the strain.

VERDICT: In what could be one of the championship deciding games, Ireland get the call. Outlcassed by Wales at the World Cup, they have had the scales tipped in their favour since by injuries to Wales in key positions, and the return of the match to Irish turf should see the 12 point gap close just about enough for Declan Kidney’s side to win. Gatland’s side should be shorter than 2/1 in the match market but travel here missing 6 of the team which carried them to the semis, and it’s worth remembering that Ireland had the vast majority of the ball throughought the game.

Advice

2 pts Ireland to win by 1-12 points (8/5 Betfred) 

6 Nations - France (1/25) v Italy (18)

One of the most intriguing 6 Nations in years starts with what should be a routine victory for France over Italy in Paris, despite the one point win for the Azzuri last year in Rome. During those crazy days of Marc Lievremont madness, there was no telling what team would turn up and having lost to England previously – Their first defeat in eight games – probably took the urgency out of proceedings.

Both teams had contrasting World Cups; Despite losing three times France made the final and lost by just one point, while Italy went out at the group stages after being unable to cope with Australia and Ireland. The Azzuri since have changed Nick Malett for Jacques Brunel in the hope of improving into realistic contenders and playing more expansive rugby, and we should learn a lot about both teams here given the new coaches and slight changes in personnel.

Saint Andre may well look towards pragmatic forward power more than flowing movement from his talented backline, while Brunel has promised more expansion. After a string of consistent performances for Toulouse Louis Picamoles has kept Imanol Harinordoquy out of the side, while no one has beaten more defenders in the Top 14, or scored more tries, than centre Wesley Fofana, who will get to link up with his centre Rougerie on his International debut.

While we all know about the senior Italy forwards, new wingers in the team have been added and it will be fascinating to see if they can break down the side that conceded just 16 points in the semi and World Cup final – they scored 20 points the last time they were here in defeat.

With only a week to prepare properly Les Bleus might not be at top form and it’s worth remembering that France have covered only four of the last 20 handicap lines given to them in the 6 Nations, and for that matter Italy +20 gets the vote.  France to win by 11-20 should also have it’s merits at a fairly large 13-5 if a tight game materialises.

Advice

2 pts Italy +21 (Bet Victor)

6 Nations - Scotland (11/8) v England (5/6)

Recent clashes between the Auld Enemy have been tight and exciting affairs, and this Saturday should be nothing less once again, and it’s possibly one of the most important in quite a few years for England certainly, while Scotland have no reason not to see this as a tone setter for the tournament.

Since a disastrous World Cup (internally at the least, if not to ignore the fact that one poor half of Rugby cost them their place at the tournament) huge changes have been made. After the overhaul of Martin Johnson in comes Stuart Lancaster – albeit on an interim basis - and out went most of the team that won last year’s title, meaning that there are eight new caps in the 22 man squad.

With 10 changes from the side that beat Scotland in the Rugby World Cup last October and nine from the RWC quarter-final defeat to France, the new outfit have no easy task heading up to Murrayfield, where England haven’t won since 2004, although Scotland are still struggling to score the tries and while they have an advantage in experience, eight changes have been made to the team which went down to England 12-16 at Eden Park; Hardly the most encouraging sign, especially with injury or old age having forced a few of the changes.

Much depends on the performances of Dan Parks, Richie Gray, Nick De Luca and debutant Lee Jones, as Scotland aim to start turning brave performances into solid results. Success for Edinburgh in the Heineken Cup is promising for the form of the players, and it did probably lend its part in David Denton’s selection, while lending another pointer to the strong home record that the Scots have here.

As far as making a choice is concerned, things are very hard.  No win at Murrayfield since 2004 suggests that England will struggle to grab a win over the border, so it’s easy to oppose them on their first major task. Scotland’s lack of tries does not make things easy though, and the fact they’ve made so many changes since that World Cup defeat casts some doubt over how solid their chances are.

With the match prices about right, the value may be in the points and tries markets. Since 2006 only 2 games have seen more than three tries score – indeed two have been blanks – and that maybe the best call once again.

Advice

2 pts Under 2.5 tries (10/11 general) 

6 Nations 2012 - Specials

During last year’s 6 Nations, there were a total of 51 tries scored, so the 5.6 being offered about less than 55 being scored with Paddy Power makes a lot of appeal. Taking a look through last year’s results, an astonishing eight tried were scored by Martin Johnston’s resurgent England side against Italy, with Chris Ashton scoring a 4 timer.

Fast forward a year, and England have a new coach and tons of new personnel, while they now must travel to Italy on the second weekend, which should be a much tougher task than the reverse fixture. That swing alone could be enough to push the Try count under even in anticipation of strong performances from other sides in the tournament. Favourites France could be more pragmatic than ususal under new coach Saint Andre, which could take a couple of tries off their total of 10, Scotland could get stuck in attritional battles with Italy and England – who are an unkown at least until the first two games are past - and that makes a mark of 56 (passed three years ago during Ireland’s Grand Slam year) high enough in the market. I’d also go unders if pushed on total points, although the mark of 600 is going to be very tight either way.  

I don’t have many interests in the other overall specials, although Ireland without France could be worth a tickle if you’re willing to take 15/8 before they meet their main rivals in that market – Wales – on Sunday. Better value however, lies in them to take the Triple Crown at 10/3 with William Hill given their strong records against all the teams involved.

The top Tryscorer market is fascinating given such a potentially tight tournament and it’s no surprise to see Vincent Clerc heading the market given his World Cup exploits – he scored 6 – and his three last year when France weren’t firing on all cylinders.

He should go close again but has plenty of competition from his own ranks (lets not forget the excellent scoring record of France’s forwards) and has been pipped for top spot twice, so an each/way bet would be advised given most firms are laying ¼ the odds for four places.

England’s Chris Ashton (left) got a little lucky to be in a team which was going so well when he bagged  against Italy but his other scores against Wales, form he took into the World Cup, suggests that he’s worth each/way support at the least to small stakes. He’s sure to be the total focus of England’s attack, unlike all of the other teams who may well share between the forwards or the backs, so back him to be England’s top Tryscorer too.

The changes made since last year could make things much tougher for Ashton and Co, so maybe backing under 10 tries could be value at odds against. 8 of their 13 tries last year came against Italy, but at face value the team is weaker now and the reverse fixture will take far more winning than at Twickenham, and if they lose to Ireland, France and Wales – they have to go away on two occasions and Ireland have a fair record at Twickenham – then backing them to come fourth could be a smart play at 10/3.

As far as the top tournament pointscorer is concerned, Dimitiri Yachvilli’s selection as the French kicker makes him the pick over England’s Farrell (who may not get that many opportunities), Jonathan Sexton (unproven in this market) & and Italy’s Bergamasco (team may not carry him to 47 points like last year).

Advice

5.5 pts Under 54.5 tries (5/6 Paddy Power)

2 pts under 9.5 England tries (5/6 Boylesports)

1 pt Chris Ashton top Tryscorer (11/1 Hills, Bet Victor)

2 pts Chris Ashton top England Tryscorer (9/4 general)

1 pt England to finish 4^th (10/3 general)

1 pt Ireland to win Triple Crown (10/3 Hills)

1 pt  Dimitri Yachvili top tournament points scorer (4/1 Blue Sq) 

6 Nations Preview 2012

Will Philippe Saint Andre get France to be consistent? How will Wales cope with injuries? Will Ireland carry their provincial form into the tournament? Will Scotland finally start scoring tries? Can Italy avoid the wooden spoon?

These are the questions for the first post-World Cup 6 Nations, which hopefully will go some way to being answered below.

England (9/2 Stan James)

Defending champions, although at a giant crossroads following an abysmal World Cup quarter final defeat to France. To say that much water has passed through the bridge since is an understatement. Out came the revelations, out went Martin Johnson, and out went several of the “elite” players that performed so poorly during the World Cup debacle, with the likes of Lewis’s Deacon and Moody, Nick Easter, Mark Cueto & Louis Deacon, with the living legend Johnny Wilkinson retired from the International game.

In came Stuart Lancaster, and masses and masses of new faces, headed by Saracen’s inside centre Owen Farrell, who has risen steadily throughought the last 12 months to a Premiership final win and Heineken Cup Quarter finals. His starting at inside centre is surely going to be a big help, while his goalkicking is a massive reassurance.

The problem as far as they’re concerned from a tournament perspective is transition. Saracens pair Farrell and Barritt will become England's first uncapped centre pairing since 2002 while Phil Dowson makes his debut at 8 in the cauldron that is Murrayfield, while the most experienced player (Charlie Hodgson) last played at this level 4 years ago and has just 46 caps.

The likes of new Captain Chris Robshaw has been exceptional for Harlequins this year, although he’s just one of many that must prove themselves in the cauldron of test rugby, and they would be much more appealing without injuries to key personnel in Toby Flood, Courtney Lawes, Manu Tuilagi and Tom Wood. A win against Scotland at Murrayfield would do wonders for the new regime, but tough tasks against Wales and Ireland are arriving at Twickenham, while a trip to Paris could be fearful.

France (13/8 Hills)

The great enigma of Test Rugby but not without a huge deal of class, as shown by their wins in 2002, 2004, 2006, 2010, and their second place last year despite an aberrational defeat by Italy. The best European side at the World Cup despite a practical player mutiny against madman and constant tinkerman Marc Liveremont, despite losing twice in the Pool stages and holding on by the skin of their teeth against Wales, who some will argue where unfairly deprived of Sam Warburton.

What was most impressive about France at the World Cup was the solidity of the team in the latter stages after conceding 96 points in the Pool Stage. Despite being thoroughly outplayed for long periods, they kept Wales and New Zealand to single figures in the semi final and final, while you couldn’t fail to be impressed by how deeply impressive they were in the first half against England before holding out for a 12-19 win.

World Cups usually aren’t a good guide to 6 Nations performances but the crucial ingredient here is the potential for them to improve on their New Zealand performance. New coach Phillipe Saint Andre, a well-respected coach who has 11 years at Gloucester and Sale, knows exactly what he wants from the squad and having a united France – and we all know what France can do when at their best – will prove a huge help to the tougher games.

As always, there’s plenty of good talent to pick from and a new headline grabber could be Clermont centre Wesley Fofana, who has beaten the most defenders and scored the most tries this season in the Top 14 for Clermont, will get to play in midfield with Aulien Rougerie, while the rest of the squad just oozes quality.

Having the mobile pairing of Louis Picamoles and Imanol Hrarinordoquy at 8 should provide some sort of reassurance in their player while a back three which includes Theirry Dusatoir and Julien Bonnaire should provide a more than solid enough basis for success.

Having backs such as Parra, Yachvilli, Beauxis, Trunh Duc, Mermoz, Malzieu. Medad and Poitrenaud just underlines their pace and it’s really hard to get away for a squad of such obvious quality. A possible negative is the lack of preparation but Italy at home first up should go a long way to quashing that and allowing Saint Andre to find a healthy mix early on, after which home advantage could make all he different.

Ireland (9/2 Skybet)

Third last year, when they destroyed England to prevent a Grand Slam, before letting everything tick in time for the wild ride that was the World Cup, where their powerpacked win against Australia set the template for a renaissance which ended late on against Wales in Wellington.

12 points separated them on that day, but there’s good reason to think the gap between them will close. Their chance for revenge takes place on Sunday in their own backyard of Croke Park, with Wales not as strong as they were for the World Cup clash.

It’s easy to forget just how poor they were before New Zealand. Four test defeats in succession – 2 to favourites France – had left many predicting failure for Kidney’s side but in the end they played their part in one of the games of the tournament and many could forsee them going a lot further.

They’re better fancied now thanks to more versatile play – they destroyed Australia’s scrum through their tight 5 and then managed to destroy Italy in the second half through sheer pace – while their provincial success is stunning, Leinster, Munster and Ulster have all qualified for the Heineken Cup quarter-finals for the first time, trashing prominent English sides on two occasions.

A trip to Paris to take on a France side they haven’t beaten in 12 matches is the major spanner in the works, but turn that result around and anything is possible. There aren’t words strong enough to describe the loss of Brian O’Driscoll, although he should be replaced easily by the likes of Cian Heally and Sean O’Brien to smash up the scrum, while it’s to be hoped that the club from Simon Zebo’s shown is continued into the tests.

Italy (200/1 general)

Fourth in 2007 but occupiers of the Wooden spoon since, last year losing but to Scotland in points difference despite overturning France at home. It’s a credit to them that they keep making steps – last year was the first time that they’d ever beaten France, although every other side (Ireland apart) had them roundly held before the end of the Championship.

The World Cup seemed to be a regression on that – they were soundly beaten by Ireland and Australia in New Zealand – and the loss of Nick Mallard is a massive blow. Yes, Jacques Burnel’s successes with Catalans in 2009 was based on the same forward dominated play that Italy specialise in, but Nick Malett had overseen the previous progress and it remains to be seen just how he fits in straight away given his quotes about adopting a more expansive approach.

The four new faces - Aironi pair Alberto de Marchi and Giovanbattista Venditti, the 21-year-old centre Luca Morisi and 18-year-old winger Angelo Esposito –all lack experience at the highest level which will not help in the grand scheme of things (away games against France first up, Ireland and Wales).

Scotland (25/1 Betfred)

A side which was very unlucky not to make the Quarter finals of the World Cup, but still one blighted by the main problem of tryscoring - they have drawn a blank in 13 of Andy Robinson's 24 Tests. They scored 6 in last year’s tournament although half of them came against a French side which was home and hosed in Paris after outclassing them, and they could manage only four at the World Cup too.

It’s becoming a serious problem for the Scots, with their performances often outstripping the results. Argentina were outplayed for long periods but needed just one to do the Scots over, while England’s later charge thanks to Chris Ashton was enough to see them home at Eden Park.

Has Andy Robinson actually improved the side? Their peformances would say yes, despite being 10^th in the world still two years after his appointment. Edinburgh’s Heineken Cup progression is a promising sign at least for their home form, although the fixture list doesn’t help their chances one bit and they’ll do well to have an impact.

Wales (10/3 Paddy Power)

The side that left everyone with egg on their faces during the World Cup after all but winning a group which included holders South Africa along with powerhouses Samoa and Fiji – previously responsible for their Group stage exit at the second last World Cup.

What saw them do that from finishing just a slowly fourth in last year’s competition? Results would hint at the cryotherapy chambers that Wales utilised before last year’s World Cup, which turned them into one of the fittest sides at the tournament based on stats; They scored 21 of their 29 tries in New Zealand during the second half.

They can also feel unlucky not to have beaten France in the semi-final having been deprived of the inform Sam Warburton for 60 minutes following what many see as an unfair red card – is it just coincidence that Alain Rolland isn’t reffing a Welsh game?

That level of performance will obviously see them being mightily hard to beat once again, although injuries threaten their progress and it’s unlikely that France will play as badly as they did during that World Cup. That said, having them on home turf is likely to prove a massive help if the title’s still up for grabs on the final day (nearly always been the case) and nobody is going to enjoy having Wales up at Twickenham.

VERDICT: World Cup form isn’t often the most reliable guide to a 6 Nations campaign but France are worthy favourites after surpassing all of their own expectations to reach the World Cup Final, and a favourable set of fixtures – the exception being Wales away – could see them to the title. An excellent defence was the foundation of their World Cup progress to the last eight and a solid head to head record against Ireland (just one of two important games they get in Paris) should prove helpful to building momentum, while starting with Italy at home gives the team an excellent opportunity to get the ball rolling and also helps overcome the major problem of their short preparation time, which sets them up perfectly for a blockbuster clash with Ireland in Paris. Declan Kidney’s side were brushed aside by Wales at the last World Cup but several injuries for Gatland’s men evens the balance and getting the game back onto home turf could be crucial, as they’ve won 5 of the last 6 fixtures in the Emerald Isle. With that in mind, backing them to finish second to France at 5/1 makes plenty of appeal to small stakes. This in no way dismisses Wales, although the first game against Ireland could see them on the backfoot if they lost and it might be worth taking a shorter price after the game about either side. England are defending champions but they now have to travel to the Stade De France while Murrayfield today is no given for them seeing as they’ve lost the last two in Edinbrugh. The new squad is promising, although patience may be needed during this period of possible transition. Scotland don’t seem to score enough tries still, while Italy have been handed a terrible set of fixtures.

Advice

6.5 pts France (6/4 general)

1 pt France – Ireland (5/1 general)