Championship 2011/12 - Season Preview and Specials

Of all the divisions it’s widely regarded that the Championship is the most difficult to win so why on earth people are smashing into West Ham and Leicester on the basis of signings, I don’t know.

Transfer-busy Leicester have already strengthened their squad with the signatures of Dave Nugent, Republic of Ireland international Sean St.Ledger, Michael Johnson, Matt Mills and Paul Konchesky all seem shrewd, trying to buy your way out of the Championship doesn’t necessarily work – See Middlesbrough last year, who went off 7/1 and came no better than 12^th.

No favourite has won the Championship since Manchester City in 2001/02 and only two have come second since, the majority disappointing in the campaign. While the claims of Leicester are obvious with a bolstered fence, there’s still a long way to go and at the prices (best of just 5/1) I can swerve them.

I’m much more wary of West Ham, who seem to have made all the right moves over the summer. Sam Allardayce is a shrewd managerial pick, while Kevin Nolan’s signing from Newcastle is the coup of the season for some.

The real attraction for West Ham backers and fans would be that they’ve retained their best players - Rob Green, Scott Parker, Carlton Cole and Matthew Upson – While adding to that with Abdouaye Faye, and Matt Taylor means plenty of experience.  The likes of Carlton Cole, Freddie Sears and especially Federic Piquionne should notch enough goals to see the Hammers launch a serious charge for the top and it’s only the price that puts me off.

The rest all have claims of some sort and there are some big prices to be had, particularly on some teams who have been written off rather soon. Many see the loss of Charlie Adam to Liverpool and DJ Campbell too as reasons for Blackpool to struggle big – time this season but there are plenty of reasons to thin that those are pre – meditated reasons for  failure that haven’t been explored properly.

Ian Holloway has added Kevin Philips and Barry Ferguson to his squad, while Gary Taylor Fletcher scored against Manchester United, Arsenal, Man City and Manchester United. The likes of Luke Varney, Mark Harewood, and Jason Puncheon all have a chance to fill the gaps while there’s no question their gung – ho style will reward them here if they stick closely to it.  All thing summed up, they’re too big at 22/1 and at 18/1 +16 for the handicap, along with the 11/10 about them to beat Newcomers Brighton over the season.

While I’m confident in Blackpool, I just can’t let Reading go unnoticed. Should they recover from defeat in last season’s play-off final then they’re big title contenders and a top 3 berth is not beyond them at all.

Only Danny Graham bagged more goals than Irishman Shane Long last season and he appears set to stay at the Madejski, while Brian McDermott has one of the largest squads in the division at his disposal with no less than 43 players – So they’re equipped for what may come in the season.

Players like Ian Harte, Andy Griffin, Jobi McAnuff, Jimmy Kebe, Brian Howard should ensure a decent amount of goals and they should make a bold bid both on the handicaps and for the title.

Others that make considerable appeal are Ipswich, who have the plus that is Paul Jewell along with the shrewd arrivals of Lee Bowyer, Michael Chopra, Nathan Ellington and highly-regarded Arsenal academy product Jay Emmanuel-Thomas, so it’s safe to assume they can do better than 13^th this year.

It wouldn’t take much for Leeds to get into the play –offs this season and whether or not they splash the cash they should have a successful year. Injures to Luciano Beechiano and Davide Somma, along with the departures of Kasper Schmeichel and Bradley Johnson have put a dampener on their chances.

Nottingham Forest have made the play-offs in each of the past two seasons under Billy Davis and another push is inevitable this time round.  Very little is wrong with Forest, barring the fact that they are liable to making a slow start and finish, which sees them fall short of promotion, and therefore the title.  Middlesbrough may have disappointed in 2010/11 but actually finished like a steam train last year. Marvin Emnes resisted Premier League interest to remain at the club while Barry Robson, Scott McDonald and Nicky Bailey will all hold their own under Tony Mowbray. That said, they still have something to prove.

As do Birmingham City, who have lost Ben Foster, Roger Johnson and a host of others, although likes of Adam Rooney, Chris Burke and Marlon King are all exciting players at this level, although none quite give the assurance that manager Chris Houghton can hopefully provide for them this season.

There seems to be a wealth of confidence about Brighton this term, who bear many resemblances to Norwich City, who achieved back-to-back promotions from the Championship last year. The Racing Post’s Dan Childs made a persuasive case for them in md – week and it’s not hard to see them doing well, for all that this could be a big step up just a season too soon for them to be promoted.

The same is said of Southampton, who will be praying that Ricky Lambert makes a seamless transition. Their momentum form the last season (52 points from 23 second half games) will be a big encouragement and their defence was the best in League 1 last term, but like Brighton it could be just a case of too soon for Promotion.

Very few make any appeal for Relegation on the basis that nobody is safe in this division – Any one of 5 could go down and more could get sucked into the battle as the season goes on.

Advice

Outright

1 pt each/way Blackpool (22/1 Hills)

1 pt each/way Reading (20/1 Hills)

Handicap

1 pt each/way Blackpool (22/1 Hills)

1 pt each/way Reading (20/1 Hills)

Match Bets

2 pts Millwall to beat Derby (10/11 Bet365)

4 pts Leeds to beat Burnley (8/11 Blue Sq)

Group Bets

1 pt Reading to beat Middlesbrough, Cardiff, & Ipswich (11-5 Betfred)

Golden Boot

2 pts each/way Frederic Piquionne (16/1 Paddy Power, 1,2,3,4)