Sunday, 26 February 2012

Scotland (3) v France (4/11)


When is it all going to fall in place for Scotland? That’s the question that must drive Andy Robinson silly at night and he’ll have to work dam hard to find an answer against France, who suddenly have the challenge of reasserting their claims for the 6 Nations Title following the impressive exploits of Wales. 

Les Bleus did little to dispel the tag of tournament favourites against Italy in week 1, giving up 60% of the ball and 66% of territory but still making the most of the chances they had, running in four tries from their best four breaks and winning by a comfortable 18 points.

Given that they lacked training time before the Italy match, Saint Andre should be perfect happy with the performance as a springboard, although both he and Captain Theirry Dusatoir said that more was needed to beat Ireland – who they would have played but for postponement – on Week 2.  

The postponement of their game in Paris against Ireland would have been seen as a hindrance to many but in hindsight it should allow for more coaching time between Saint Andre and his players – they have now had four weeks at Marcoussis together.

It’ll be interesting to see what effect that has on the French, with Saint Andre’s appointment generally expected to improve the team as a whole – and it’ll be interesting to see whether he opts once again for a more pragmatic approach like at times against Italy, or whether Les Bleus take the game to the Scots.

With the home side starting in receipt of upto 8 points one would have this as a gimme for France and it will be disappointing if they can’t be winning here but it would be unwise to assume that Scotland’s recent scorelines are a true reflection of their performances.

They dominated the stats against England - 238 passes completed compared to 72; 62 tackles made compared to 142; 123 rucks and mauls won compared to 51; 33 attacks in the opposition 22 compared to eight; and more than 35 minutes in possession compared to 24 – while they held Wales to just 3 points during the first half at the Millenium Stadium before capitulating once again late on.

France “should” win, but taking 4/11 is a dangerous ploy and much more value lies in a win by 1-12 points, which has been the case on two of the last three matches between the two sides.

Advice

4 pts France to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)

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