Superbowl XLVI - Preview

Many casual observers like yours truly will tune in tonight to watch one of the biggest events of the year anywhere - the 46th Superbowl - and for those who follow the sport more closely, some nostalgia trips might be on their way as in a repeat of 2008, the New England Patriots will be out to avenge their late 17-14 defeat to the New York Giants.

Eli Manning and Tom Brady, roundly expected to be the stars today, decided the last meeting. The extraordinary pass known as the Helmet Catch – blessed with its own Wikipedia article – during which included Manning escaping from the grasp of three Patriots defensive players, followed by Tyree making a leaping catch by pressing the ball against his helmet, denying a New England Patriots team who stood on the verge of completing the first unbeaten season since the Miami Dolphins in 1972.

Neither team has been perfectionists during this campaign, with the Patriots going a quite impressive 13-3 during the regular season, but they may be disappointed once again and 5/4 on the Giants taking the Vince Lombardi Trophy again might be the best bet for interest seekers.

At 9-7, they had an even worse regular season than four years ago but regular season form has been bucked on quite a few occasions coming to this occasion and it’s arguable that the Giants have actually been more impressive in the playoffs than 2008 if you consider their performances.

They’re only the second team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl after beating three opponents with better record in the regular season than them, most impressively when beating the Green Bay Packers and overturning an earlier defeat by a team who were 16-1 at that stage.

Indeed, their whole schedule in getting here was against high class teams New Orleans, New England, NY Jets, Atlanta, Dallas twice, San Francisco twice and Green Bay twice – and they lost just two of those games, underlining their penchant for going strongly against big teams.

Some will question the defence of the side which gave up 4,000 passing yards but the defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora perfmed admirably, with the former making 86 combined tackles and ranked fourth in the NFL with 16.5 sacks, earning him the only Pro Bowl selection on the Giants defence, while Umenyiora recorded 9 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.

Early season struggles saw them lose several games but opponents actually only scored 6 more points than them, while they tied in third for sacks - when the quarterback is tackled behind the line of scrimmage before he can throw a forward pass – and they can now boast a much more inform and fitter team.

5 of the last 6 superbowls have been won by the team with the weaker win rate over the duration of the campaign and they’ve gone from the sixth worst to the second best defensive unit, so there’s every reason to think that they’ll hold their own here.

With the underdogs having 12 wins in 45 Superbowls and three successful covers in the last 4, it’s a tricky dilemma about whether to go outright or just for the Giants +3, but either seems a good option, while a tight winning margin of 1-6 points is surely a runner. In addition to that, I don’t see either team making a huge amount of points – the hype over the defences has gone into overdrive- and a line of 53/5 points can be taken on.

The Patriots – led by the superb Tom Brady – blitzed their regular season opponents by more than 150 points (their final total to be infront of other teams was actually 171) and have the stats in their favour for this meeting, although whether they’re the certainties that the media think they are is a different question altogether.

Undoubtedly stopped by the pass rush which saw Bready sacked 5 times and hit 9 more back in 2008, they are in the same position of favourites, and pundits pick this time around, although the exact reasons seem fairly unclear.

One may be the fitness of Tom Brady – sidelined with an ankle injury for two weeks four years ago – although he was present for the 24-20 defeat, having been ahead with just a minute and a half to go, while several will point to the contrasts between the offence and defence, although with the Giants far improved since then that may be a false basis to work upon.

Much more relevant is the fact that only one sack has been allowed by the Patriots in the post season, which hints at lot of protection for Tom Brady, a potentially game changing factor for many. Should the Patriots win the game then he’d be odds on for the award and 13/10 that he does so isn’t a bad hedge at all.

Their tight ends - Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez – have all been excellent throughought the season and there’s always the decoy plan to save Gronowsky if a late ankle strain suffered at Baltimore has indeed taken its toll.

An average of 67 offensive plays per, game, with 26 runs during said period each time, may be part of the reason behind the form of players such as Jake Ballard. The tactical dilemma posted by ESPN’S John Clayton about from how much the Patriots will run is also a key pointer, with the Giants allowing 4.5 yards per run this year, but they can hold out for another Vince Lombardi trophy.

On another note, the second half outscores the first half on points by 275 to 195, so 20/23 about that eventuality happening tonight seems very reasonable as a special bet.

Advice

7.5 pts New York Giants (5/4 general)

1 pt Giants to win by 1-6 points (4/1 general)

Other

4 pts 2^nd half to be highest scoring half (20/21 general)

2.5 pts under 53 points (10/11 general)