England are
the only team that Italy hasn’t beaten in the 6 Nations -There have been 17
Test matches involving the nations since 1991 with the Azzurri yet to taste
success - but current circumstances will lead quite a few to believe that Italy
will never get a better chance to take down Stuart Lancaster’s side.
Italy were
beaten 30-12 by France in the opening weekend, but limited the hosts to fewer
chances than many expected and once again impressed with the power of their
forward pack against a large French scrum, and had plenty of territory in
France’s own backyard, no mean feat considering their record at the Stade De
France (they’re unbeaten in nine matches there now).
The last
meeting between the two saw Nick Malett’s side humiliated at Twickenham but as
one would expect from the newest side in the tournament – After all, they’ve
played just 12 tournaments – they struggled away from home and being back on
home turf should even things up in their favour.
The huge
changes that have occurred throughought England’s national team have been well
documented, so it was just pleasing to see them come away from Scotland with a
win, although it would be folly to assume that things will get any easier for
them here.
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| David Denton attempts to break through the Scottish |
It’s not
hard to argue that they played at least as well as Scotland did in defeat
against Stuart Lancaster’s side, which may still be finding its feet despite
that win, which did have a good deal of fortune given to it thanks to the error
made by Dan Parks in the opening of the second half. The hosts will also feel
aggrieved not to have gotten a TMO for Greig Ladlaw’s try, although that was
small change compared to the chance that Ross Rennie blew late on with two
either side of him.
Jacques
Brunel is trying to get Italy to play a more expansive style of Rugby and it
showed last week with their 12 offloads in the tackle than France last week, equal
to Ireland, Wales and England put together, while they had 60% of possession
and 66% of territory. The same performance against England will see a mighty
close battle.
With a
vastly more experienced team - Italy will field a total of 698 caps, with
another 116 caps on the bench, compared to the 248 in England’s starting XV –
it will be yet another baptism of fire for Lancaster’s men, and all seems set
for a massive push.
It seems
easy to pick on this new England side but things were never going to be quite
so easy for them at Murrayfield and one couldn’t fault their commitment to
defending their lead – however unfairly gained – during the second, half which
continued a strong record that they’ve developed after the break. It should be
remembered that it’s this kind of industry which the great England sides were
built on though and another weekend should see them gel a little bit more.
With Italy
generally being, a) Handicap kings (in their last 10 home games they’ve covered
the handicap eight times), b) Extremely disciplined (they gave away only 6
penalties to France last week) & c) Improving all the time (they had more of
the ball than France last week), a start of eight points makes a great amount
of appeal - England's last two visits to Rome have resulted in two narrow
victories by four and five points.
Those who
believe that England won’t crumble to the Azzuri should be looking in the
winning margin market, where Betfred will give you 8/5 that Stuart Lancaster’s
side can win by 1-12 points. It’s a sign of Italy’s improvement that it’s no
longer a banker, but it gives by far the most value on the three Lions.
Advice
3 pts
England to win by 1-12 points (8/5 Betfred)
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