6 Nations 2012 - Ireland (1/12) v Italy (12)

With all of the hullabaloo on what’s seen by many as an early Grand Slam decider between England and Wales later on today, it would be easy to forget that Ireland are playing Italy today but Declan Kidney’s side get a chance to put the first points on the board in the 6 Nations.

Both sides will possibly feel aggrieved not to have won their openers – Declan Kidney’s side were well backed for success in this tournament and to beat what was seen my many (including yours truly) as a weakened Wales on Sunday but a costly late error from Stephen Ferris, whose tip tackle prevented Leigh Halfpenny with the winning penalty, threw away victory for them at the last moment, while Tobias Botes missed two kicks to win the game for Italy with awful efforts.

While the manner of defeat was very hard on Ireland, it has to be remembered that victory wasn’t undeserved for the Welsh, who travelled to Dublin missing Gethin Jenkins (knee), Luke Charteris (wrist), Alun Wyn Jones (toe), Matthew Rees (calf strain) and Lloyd Burns (neck), and flanker Dan Lydiate.

That said their level of play should be too high for even this Italy side, which has looked improved on recent outfits. They should have beaten England (as said above) while they had more possession than they’d previously had for a long while against France and came close to the tryline while never looked overly likely to get there.

Jacuqes Brunel is trying to get Italy to play a more expansive style of Rugby and it showed with their 12 offloads in the tackle than France last week, equal to Ireland, Wales and England put together, while they had 60% of possession and 66% of territory.

Wheter that means they’ll actually be now a tougher team to beat at home as well as on the road is to be seen, but this is another acid test and it’s pretty impossible to see them taking a win from Dublin. When looking at this game from a betting perspective, two trends become clear.

Italy are very strong in the first half - Italy have scored the first try of the match in six of their last 12 matches and their 12-6 lead against England was the fourth time in their last 6 matches they’ve not lost at the break – but also tend to be much weaker in the second half, having been obliterated in the second half against Ireland, Australia, Scotland, and England in recent months.

That makes the 8/11 on Ireland giving away 8 points on the second half handicap more than good enough for this game, while a wager on them making 29 or more points could also come in.

Advice

2 pts Ireland -7.5 on 2^nd half handicap (8/11 Bet365)

2 pts Ireland to score 28 points or more (5/6 Stan James)