England (9/2 Stan James)
Defending champions, although at a giant crossroads following an abysmal World Cup quarter final defeat to France. To say that much water has passed through the bridge since is an understatement. Out came the revelations, out went Martin Johnson, and out went several of the “elite” players that performed so poorly during the World Cup debacle, with the likes of Lewis’s Deacon and Moody, Nick Easter, Mark Cueto & Louis Deacon, with the living legend Johnny Wilkinson retired from the International game.
In came Stuart Lancaster, and masses and masses of new faces, headed by Saracen’s inside centre Owen Farrell, who has risen steadily throughought the last 12 months to a Premiership final win and Heineken Cup Quarter finals. His starting at inside centre is surely going to be a big help, while his goalkicking is a massive reassurance.
The problem as far as they’re concerned from a tournament perspective is transition. Saracens pair Farrell and Barritt will become England's first uncapped centre pairing since 2002 while Phil Dowson makes his debut at 8 in the cauldron that is Murrayfield, while the most experienced player (Charlie Hodgson) last played at this level 4 years ago and has just 46 caps.
The likes of new Captain Chris Robshaw has been exceptional for Harlequins this year, although he’s just one of many that must prove themselves in the cauldron of test rugby, and they would be much more appealing without injuries to key personnel in Toby Flood, Courtney Lawes, Manu Tuilagi and Tom Wood. A win against Scotland at Murrayfield would do wonders for the new regime, but tough tasks against Wales and Ireland are arriving at Twickenham, while a trip to Paris could be fearful.
France (13/8 Hills)
The great enigma of Test Rugby but not without a huge deal of class, as shown by their wins in 2002, 2004, 2006, 2010, and their second place last year despite an aberrational defeat by Italy. The best European side at the World Cup despite a practical player mutiny against madman and constant tinkerman Marc Liveremont, despite losing twice in the Pool stages and holding on by the skin of their teeth against Wales, who some will argue where unfairly deprived of Sam Warburton.
What was most impressive about France at the World Cup was the solidity of the team in the latter stages after conceding 96 points in the Pool Stage. Despite being thoroughly outplayed for long periods, they kept Wales and New Zealand to single figures in the semi final and final, while you couldn’t fail to be impressed by how deeply impressive they were in the first half against England before holding out for a 12-19 win.
World Cups usually aren’t a good guide to 6 Nations performances but the crucial ingredient here is the potential for them to improve on their New Zealand performance. New coach Phillipe Saint Andre, a well-respected coach who has 11 years at Gloucester and Sale, knows exactly what he wants from the squad and having a united France – and we all know what France can do when at their best – will prove a huge help to the tougher games.
As always, there’s plenty of good talent to pick from and a new headline grabber could be Clermont centre Wesley Fofana, who has beaten the most defenders and scored the most tries this season in the Top 14 for Clermont, will get to play in midfield with Aulien Rougerie, while the rest of the squad just oozes quality.
Having the mobile pairing of Louis Picamoles and Imanol Hrarinordoquy at 8 should provide some sort of reassurance in their player while a back three which includes Theirry Dusatoir and Julien Bonnaire should provide a more than solid enough basis for success.
Having backs such as Parra, Yachvilli, Beauxis, Trunh Duc, Mermoz, Malzieu. Medad and Poitrenaud just underlines their pace and it’s really hard to get away for a squad of such obvious quality. A possible negative is the lack of preparation but Italy at home first up should go a long way to quashing that and allowing Saint Andre to find a healthy mix early on, after which home advantage could make all he different.
Ireland (9/2 Skybet)
Third last year, when they destroyed England to prevent a Grand Slam, before letting everything tick in time for the wild ride that was the World Cup, where their powerpacked win against Australia set the template for a renaissance which ended late on against Wales in Wellington.
12 points separated them on that day, but there’s good reason to think the gap between them will close. Their chance for revenge takes place on Sunday in their own backyard of Croke Park, with Wales not as strong as they were for the World Cup clash.
It’s easy to forget just how poor they were before New Zealand. Four test defeats in succession – 2 to favourites France – had left many predicting failure for Kidney’s side but in the end they played their part in one of the games of the tournament and many could forsee them going a lot further.
They’re better fancied now thanks to more versatile play – they destroyed Australia’s scrum through their tight 5 and then managed to destroy Italy in the second half through sheer pace – while their provincial success is stunning, Leinster, Munster and Ulster have all qualified for the Heineken Cup quarter-finals for the first time, trashing prominent English sides on two occasions.
A trip to Paris to take on a France side they haven’t beaten in 12 matches is the major spanner in the works, but turn that result around and anything is possible. There aren’t words strong enough to describe the loss of Brian O’Driscoll, although he should be replaced easily by the likes of Cian Heally and Sean O’Brien to smash up the scrum, while it’s to be hoped that the club from Simon Zebo’s shown is continued into the tests.
Italy (200/1 general)
Fourth in 2007 but occupiers of the Wooden spoon since, last year losing but to Scotland in points difference despite overturning France at home. It’s a credit to them that they keep making steps – last year was the first time that they’d ever beaten France, although every other side (Ireland apart) had them roundly held before the end of the Championship.
The World Cup seemed to be a regression on that – they were soundly beaten by Ireland and Australia in New Zealand – and the loss of Nick Mallard is a massive blow. Yes, Jacques Burnel’s successes with Catalans in 2009 was based on the same forward dominated play that Italy specialise in, but Nick Malett had overseen the previous progress and it remains to be seen just how he fits in straight away given his quotes about adopting a more expansive approach.
The four new faces - Aironi pair Alberto de Marchi and Giovanbattista Venditti, the 21-year-old centre Luca Morisi and 18-year-old winger Angelo Esposito –all lack experience at the highest level which will not help in the grand scheme of things (away games against France first up, Ireland and Wales).
Scotland (25/1 Betfred)
A side which was very unlucky not to make the Quarter finals of the World Cup, but still one blighted by the main problem of tryscoring - they have drawn a blank in 13 of Andy Robinson's 24 Tests. They scored 6 in last year’s tournament although half of them came against a French side which was home and hosed in Paris after outclassing them, and they could manage only four at the World Cup too.
It’s becoming a serious problem for the Scots, with their performances often outstripping the results. Argentina were outplayed for long periods but needed just one to do the Scots over, while England’s later charge thanks to Chris Ashton was enough to see them home at Eden Park.
Has Andy Robinson actually improved the side? Their peformances would say yes, despite being 10th in the world still two years after his appointment. Edinburgh’s Heineken Cup progression is a promising sign at least for their home form, although the fixture list doesn’t help their chances one bit and they’ll do well to have an impact.
Wales (10/3 Paddy Power)
The side that left everyone with egg on their faces during the World Cup after all but winning a group which included holders South Africa along with powerhouses Samoa and Fiji – previously responsible for their Group stage exit at the second last World Cup.
What saw them do that from finishing just a slowly fourth in last year’s competition? Results would hint at the cryotherapy chambers that Wales utilised before last year’s World Cup, which turned them into one of the fittest sides at the tournament based on stats; They scored 21 of their 29 tries in New Zealand during the second half.
They can also feel unlucky not to have beaten France in the semi-final having been deprived of the inform Sam Warburton for 60 minutes following what many see as an unfair red card – is it just coincidence that Alain Rolland isn’t reffing a Welsh game?
That level of performance will obviously see them being mightily hard to beat once again, although injuries threaten their progress and it’s unlikely that France will play as badly as they did during that World Cup. That said, having them on home turf is likely to prove a massive help if the title’s still up for grabs on the final day (nearly always been the case) and nobody is going to enjoy having Wales up at Twickenham.
VERDICT: World Cup form isn’t often the most reliable guide to a 6 Nations campaign but France are worthy favourites after surpassing all of their own expectations to reach the World Cup Final, and a favourable set of fixtures – the exception being Wales away – could see them to the title. An excellent defence was the foundation of their World Cup progress to the last eight and a solid head to head record against Ireland (just one of two important games they get in Paris) should prove helpful to building momentum, while starting with Italy at home gives the team an excellent opportunity to get the ball rolling and also helps overcome the major problem of their short preparation time, which sets them up perfectly for a blockbuster clash with Ireland in Paris. Declan Kidney’s side were brushed aside by Wales at the last World Cup but several injuries for Gatland’s men evens the balance and getting the game back onto home turf could be crucial, as they’ve won 5 of the last 6 fixtures in the Emerald Isle. With that in mind, backing them to finish second to France at 5/1 makes plenty of appeal to small stakes. This in no way dismisses Wales, although the first game against Ireland could see them on the backfoot if they lost and it might be worth taking a shorter price after the game about either side. England are defending champions but they now have to travel to the Stade De France while Murrayfield today is no given for them seeing as they’ve lost the last two in Edinbrugh. The new squad is promising, although patience may be needed during this period of possible transition. Scotland don’t seem to score enough tries still, while Italy have been handed a terrible set of fixtures.
Advice
6.5 pts France (6/4 general)
1 pt France – Ireland (5/1 general)
Specials
During last year’s 6 Nations, there were a total of 51 tries scored, so the 5.6 being offered about less than 55 being scored with Paddy Power makes a lot of appeal. Taking a look through last year’s results, an astonishing eight tried were scored by Martin Johnston’s resurgent England side against Italy, with Chris Ashton scoring a 4 timer.
Fast forward a year, and England have a new coach and tons of new personnel, while they now must travel to Italy on the second weekend, which should be a much tougher task than the reverse fixture. That swing alone could be enough to push the Try count under even in anticipation of strong performances from other sides in the tournament. Favourites France could be more pragmatic than ususal under new coach Saint Andre, which could take a couple of tries off their total of 10, Scotland could get stuck in attritional battles with Italy and England – who are an unkown at least until the first two games are past - and that makes a mark of 56 (passed three years ago during Ireland’s Grand Slam year) high enough in the market. I’d also go unders if pushed on total points, although the mark of 600 is going to be very tight either way.
I don’t have many interests in the other overall specials, although Ireland without France could be worth a tickle if you’re willing to take 15/8 before they meet their main rivals in that market – Wales – on Sunday. Better value however, lies in them to take the Triple Crown at 10/3 with William Hill given their strong records against all the teams involved.
The top Tryscorer market is fascinating given such a potentially tight tournament and it’s no surprise to see Vincent Clerc heading the market given his World Cup exploits – he scored 6 – and his three last year when France weren’t firing on all cylinders.
He should go close again but has plenty of competition from his own ranks (lets not forget the excellent scoring record of France’s forwards) and has been pipped for top spot twice, so an each/way bet would be advised given most firms are laying ¼ the odds for four places.
England’s Chris Ashton (left) got a little lucky to be in a team which was going so well when he bagged against Italy but his other scores against Wales, form he took into the World Cup, suggests that he’s worth each/way support at the least to small stakes. He’s sure to be the total focus of England’s attack, unlike all of the other teams who may well share between the forwards or the backs, so back him to be England’s top Tryscorer too.
The changes made since last year could make things much tougher for Ashton and Co, so maybe backing under 10 tries could be value at odds against. 8 of their 13 tries last year came against Italy, but at face value the team is weaker now and the reverse fixture will take far more winning than at Twickenham, and if they lose to Ireland, France and Wales – they have to go away on two occasions and Ireland have a fair record at Twickenham – then backing them to come fourth could be a smart play at 10/3.
As far as the top tournament pointscorer is concerned, Dimitiri Yachvilli’s selection as the French kicker makes him the pick over England’s Farrell (who may not get that many opportunities), Jonathan Sexton (unproven in this market) & and Italy’s Bergamasco (team may not carry him to 47 points like last year).
Advice
5.5 pts Under 54.5 tries (5/6 Paddy Power)
2 pts under 9.5 England tries (5/6 Boylesports)
1 pt Chris Ashton top Tryscorer (11/1 Hills, Bet Victor)
2 pts Chris Ashton top England Tryscorer (9/4 general)
1 pt England to finish 4th (10/3 general)
1 pt Ireland to win Triple Crown (10/3 Hills)
1 pt Dimitri Yachvili top tournament points scorer (4/1 Blue Sq)
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