6 Nations 2012 - Specials

During last year’s 6 Nations, there were a total of 51 tries scored, so the 5.6 being offered about less than 55 being scored with Paddy Power makes a lot of appeal. Taking a look through last year’s results, an astonishing eight tried were scored by Martin Johnston’s resurgent England side against Italy, with Chris Ashton scoring a 4 timer.

Fast forward a year, and England have a new coach and tons of new personnel, while they now must travel to Italy on the second weekend, which should be a much tougher task than the reverse fixture. That swing alone could be enough to push the Try count under even in anticipation of strong performances from other sides in the tournament. Favourites France could be more pragmatic than ususal under new coach Saint Andre, which could take a couple of tries off their total of 10, Scotland could get stuck in attritional battles with Italy and England – who are an unkown at least until the first two games are past - and that makes a mark of 56 (passed three years ago during Ireland’s Grand Slam year) high enough in the market. I’d also go unders if pushed on total points, although the mark of 600 is going to be very tight either way.  

I don’t have many interests in the other overall specials, although Ireland without France could be worth a tickle if you’re willing to take 15/8 before they meet their main rivals in that market – Wales – on Sunday. Better value however, lies in them to take the Triple Crown at 10/3 with William Hill given their strong records against all the teams involved.

The top Tryscorer market is fascinating given such a potentially tight tournament and it’s no surprise to see Vincent Clerc heading the market given his World Cup exploits – he scored 6 – and his three last year when France weren’t firing on all cylinders.

He should go close again but has plenty of competition from his own ranks (lets not forget the excellent scoring record of France’s forwards) and has been pipped for top spot twice, so an each/way bet would be advised given most firms are laying ¼ the odds for four places.

England’s Chris Ashton (left) got a little lucky to be in a team which was going so well when he bagged  against Italy but his other scores against Wales, form he took into the World Cup, suggests that he’s worth each/way support at the least to small stakes. He’s sure to be the total focus of England’s attack, unlike all of the other teams who may well share between the forwards or the backs, so back him to be England’s top Tryscorer too.

The changes made since last year could make things much tougher for Ashton and Co, so maybe backing under 10 tries could be value at odds against. 8 of their 13 tries last year came against Italy, but at face value the team is weaker now and the reverse fixture will take far more winning than at Twickenham, and if they lose to Ireland, France and Wales – they have to go away on two occasions and Ireland have a fair record at Twickenham – then backing them to come fourth could be a smart play at 10/3.

As far as the top tournament pointscorer is concerned, Dimitiri Yachvilli’s selection as the French kicker makes him the pick over England’s Farrell (who may not get that many opportunities), Jonathan Sexton (unproven in this market) & and Italy’s Bergamasco (team may not carry him to 47 points like last year).

Advice

5.5 pts Under 54.5 tries (5/6 Paddy Power)

2 pts under 9.5 England tries (5/6 Boylesports)

1 pt Chris Ashton top Tryscorer (11/1 Hills, Bet Victor)

2 pts Chris Ashton top England Tryscorer (9/4 general)

1 pt England to finish 4^th (10/3 general)

1 pt Ireland to win Triple Crown (10/3 Hills)

1 pt  Dimitri Yachvili top tournament points scorer (4/1 Blue Sq)