Ask many people their idea of the most competitive League in Europe and they’ll tell you it’s the Bundesliga but Italy’s Serie A is likely to be as tight as ever this season, with the big 2 at the forefront but now being chased hard.
There’s a wealth of appeal regarding Champions AC Milan, widely expected to play second fiddle to the Nezzauri until the club secured the services of Robinho and Zlatan Ibrahimovic at the eleventh hour of the transfer window, which turned pessimism into optimism, chances into goals and the title came back to Milan.
Coach Massimo Allegri deserves plenty of credit for fixing a leaky defence – The main reason behind their title triumph – and getting the best out of Ibrahimovic, Cassano, Robinho and -earlier in the campaign – Ronaldinho. A team ethic and sprit that helped the Rossoneri maintain their pursuit of the Scudetto until the very end was also down the new coach, and that’s not the only positive.
The reinforcement of their squad with two excellent defensive additions in Taye Taiwo and Phillipe Mexes, who were both bought from Olympique Marseille and AS Roma, respectively on a free transfer, makes their back line uber – solid and with a team even stronger than last season, they must rate favourites to retain the title.
The fact still remains that 5/4 is a short price for a 38 game campaign and the title holders are suspect to possible injury, so they are best left with plenty of other factors left in the mix. Inter Milan were tempting at 9/4 without the massive handicap that Rafa Benitez has turned into – They dropped more than 6 points because of him last year – and an improved title challenge is expected.
Another excuse was injuries. The likes of Macion, Julio Cesar, Maicon, Walter Samuel, MacDonald Mariga, Thiago Motta, Sulley Muntari, David Suazo, Dejan Stankovic, and Wesley Sneijder were all ruled out at some point during the season, and should they be able to keep a fit team on the pitch then they’d have to be closer to AC that the market suggests.
However, Inter’s goal threat has been hugely weakened by Russian club Anzhi Makhachkala agreeing a deal to sign Samuel Eto'o from Inter Milan for 21m euros (£18.4m) with a contract offer very few could refuse.
Should Diego Forlan come in from Athletico Madrid the problem will be solved but I couldn’t;’t be sure at the time of writing that happens, although reports seem very confident about that possibility. A move for Forlan could decide the title.
Indeed, the transfer picture is a massive factor for their prospect. Reports in Spain claim that Real Madrid midfielder Kaka could be on the verge of a move, which would shift the balance of midfield power straight over to the Nezzuauri, while Luc Castaignos and Giampaolo Pazzini should be prolific enough – The latter’s 11 goals in the run in for the Nezzauri is a huge credit.
That’s not the only problem at the club though, with Leonardo's decision to quit for a directorial role at Paris St-Germain proving a bitter blow – Gasperini has big shoes to fill on this score.
The main problem was their once rock solid defence – Inter conceded 20 more goals than Milan last season – and with a backline that seems to be on the wrong side of 30 (and has been for some time) it’s a problem that needs to be addressed still and while the 2009-10 Champions League winners are still short at 9/4.
Juventus were seventh last season but like many teams around Europe this season, have been backed to improve markedly on that based on – you guessed it – a spending spree. Fabio Quagliarella, Alessandro Matri, Simone Pepe, Marco Motta, have all been added permanently to the books, while some very talented players such as Arturo Vidal, Andrea Pirlo, and Mirko Vucinic all come in.
There’s till the possibility of Hamburg’s left wigner, Eljero Elia who whould take pressure of Milos Krasic, and adding Buffon to the mix and you have a great starting XI on paper. That squad should be good enough to win the title and is, but there’s still a gap between them and the elite in Italy and cohesion is a possible issue early on in the season, as has been the case with the likes of Leicester, PSG, West Ham and others.
Roma have always been there or thereabouts, failing for some defensive issues but they are very much looking forward to the season. A new young coach in Luis Enrique added to the young buys of Erik Lamela and Bojan Krkic are added to by Maarten Stekelenburg, who’s a definite upgrade over Cristiano Doni and Julio Sergio, while Jose Angel (from Espanyol) should be able to make an impact this season in defensive areas following on from the loss of Phillipe Mexes.
While they too have the talent to make a big challenge, a feeling is that instant team cohesion is needed badly – Should that be achieved then they’d be a mighty hard team to beat all season.
The first team that interests me majorly is Napoli, an excellent club that came third last season despite being criticized for not having any strength in depth past an outstanding first 11. They were only 12 points off the title last season – which would have been more had they not struggled so badly against the top teams - and have not been weakened to any significant point.
Edinson Cavani was phenomenal last season as he narrowly missed out on the Golden Boot (Capocannoniere) crown with 26 league goals while Ezequiel Lavezzi was also fantastic as his creativity and vision created goals aplomb. The likes of Morgan De Sanctis, Paolo Cannavaro, and Christian Maggio have stayed too which makes a price of 25’s for the title look huge along with the 4/1 being offered about them winning the title without either Milan Club.
Some are doubtful that Udinese can or will repeat last season's fourth-place finish, having sold their star trio of Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona), Cristan Zapata (Villarreal) and Gokhan Inler (Napoli) for only 44 Million Euros, but their two performances against Arsenal show they’re as good as ever and another successful season is expected.
Antionio Di Natale, top scorer for the last two seasons, was once again at the forefront of everything against Arsenal despite missing a penalty, while Ghanaians Agyemang Badu and Kwado Asamaoh looked dangerous in midfield – As they mature again they should become contenders for player of the season – While Paolo Amero is a terrific wideman who should provide goals a plenty.
In short, Udinese look too big at 12’s each/way for the third place spot and 6/5 for a top 4 finish on Betfair, with their settled squad and Champions League exploits to give them a fast start to the season.
As far as top goalscorer goes, I can’t leave Di Natale at 14’s given all that’s been said about him (he also has penalties and free kicks) while Bojan Krkic is too big at 30’s if he clicks with his new Roma Team mates - forty-one goals in one hundred and sixty-three appearances is not half bad for a player that has never really gotten the credit he deserves and still has time on his side. It’s unique to find a player that has four years of professional experience under belt at the age of 20 and has played at one of the best teams of all time.
Advice
3 pts Napoli w/o Inter & AC Milan (4/1 Bet365)
1 pt Udinese w/o Inter & AC Milan (12/1 Bet365)
1 pt each/way Udinese w/o Inter & AC Milan (12/1 Bet365)
Advice – Top Goalscorer
1 pt e/w Antonio Di Natale (14/1 Betfred)
1 pt e/w Bojan Krkic (30/1 Bwin)
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