6 Nations 2012 - Wales (1/6) v Scotland (6)

World Cup semi-finalists Wales defied a long injury list to gain a deserved, if not rather fortunate win in Dublin against hot favourites Ireland and suddenly talk of a Grand Slam is back again, with today’s game against Scotland expected to be a breeze by many.

Much of this stems from the Scots increasingly frustrating failure to score tries – Andy Robinson’s side have scored only four tries in their last five matches, drawing a blank against England (twice) and Argentina – results that arguably cost them their place in the quarter finals of the World Cup (the group if one wants to be more harsh) and then the Calcutta Cup against England at Murrayfield.

George North was outstanding against Ireland in Week 1

It’s not lost on many who watched the game how much possession the Scots had against the English, with Ross Rennie’s failed pass practically a sitter in football terms, Richie Gray’s offload going array, and then Greig Laidlaw missing my inches, with the TMO unable to determine whether or not he had made the touchdown and the referee failing to bring play back to the advantage point beforehand.

If that hasn’t convinced you of their dominance, let the Guardian’s Paul Rees have a go; 238 passes completed compared to 72; 62 tackles made compared to 142; 123 rucks and mauls won compared to 51; 33 attacks in the opposition 22 compared to eight; and more than 35 minutes in possession compared to 24. Wasteful isn’t the word.

With Wales generally assumed to be a better side than England – They gave France much more of a game than Martin Johnson’s side did at the World Cup, and Stuart Lancaster’s team, for all they’ve won their opening two games, are still in transition to an extent – this looks to be a hopeless task for the Scots away from home.

Wales were a little fortunate against Ireland – their win did come from Stephen Ferris’s moment of madness in front of the posts with 51 seconds left on the clock – but in no way undeserving, with their 60%+ share of possession and territory not complimented by a half fit Rhys Priestland  missing two penalties and a conversion, while goalkicking hero Lee Halfpenny missed the conversion on George North’s try.

Nevertheless, that win was no more than they deserved and on home solid it’s simple a question of whether they can pull away enough to cover the biggest handicap start ever given to Scotland in a 6 Nations match between the two – between 11 and 13 points.

With the Scots failing to score tries and the Welsh generally rampant, gut instinct says yes, especially with them having won by more than 12 in three of their last 5 meetings at Cardiff. However that’s a big handicap to pass and more value might be found in backing Wales to score 27 points or more.

Gatland’s men have scored 30, 26, 31, and 24 points in their four most recent wins against Scotland and they seem to be hitting a real peak in performance right now, with their win against Ireland just one of a few excellent attacking performances from their towering but surprisingly mobile backline, with George North and Jonathan Davies being two shining examples.

The return of Gethin Jenkins and Dan Lydiate could find another level in a side that’s already proven too strong for Ireland, and while Scotland should put up a strong show, this will be harder than being at Murrayfield against a team full of debutants and inexperienced players.

With Wales having an excellent second half scored – 23 of their last 31 have been scored in the last 40 – the second half handicap of 6 appeals more than the total equivalent and also the 8/11 on Gatland’s side winning both halves.

Advice

3.5 pts Wales to score 27 points or more (5/6 Ladbrokes)

2 pts Wales -6 on 2^nd half handicap (evs Ladbrokes)