Recent clashes between the Auld Enemy have been tight and exciting affairs, and this Saturday should be nothing less once again, and it’s possibly one of the most important in quite a few years for England certainly, while Scotland have no reason not to see this as a tone setter for the tournament.
Since a disastrous World Cup (internally at the least, if not to ignore the fact that one poor half of Rugby cost them their place at the tournament) huge changes have been made. After the overhaul of Martin Johnson in comes Stuart Lancaster – albeit on an interim basis - and out went most of the team that won last year’s title, meaning that there are eight new caps in the 22 man squad.
With 10 changes from the side that beat Scotland in the Rugby World Cup last October and nine from the RWC quarter-final defeat to France, the new outfit have no easy task heading up to Murrayfield, where England haven’t won since 2004, although Scotland are still struggling to score the tries and while they have an advantage in experience, eight changes have been made to the team which went down to England 12-16 at Eden Park; Hardly the most encouraging sign, especially with injury or old age having forced a few of the changes.
Much depends on the performances of Dan Parks, Richie Gray, Nick De Luca and debutant Lee Jones, as Scotland aim to start turning brave performances into solid results. Success for Edinburgh in the Heineken Cup is promising for the form of the players, and it did probably lend its part in David Denton’s selection, while lending another pointer to the strong home record that the Scots have here.
As far as making a choice is concerned, things are very hard. No win at Murrayfield since 2004 suggests that England will struggle to grab a win over the border, so it’s easy to oppose them on their first major task. Scotland’s lack of tries does not make things easy though, and the fact they’ve made so many changes since that World Cup defeat casts some doubt over how solid their chances are.
With the match prices about right, the value may be in the points and tries markets. Since 2006 only 2 games have seen more than three tries score – indeed two have been blanks – and that maybe the best call once again.
Advice
2 pts Under 2.5 tries (10/11 general)
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