Barcelona have won the Champions League in three of the last
6 seasons and will have their army of backers at 6/4 to make it four out of the
last 7, in a season that some have claimed lacks depth. Manchester United,
Porto, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax and Valencia have all failed to make it through,
while Manchester City were widely expected to make it through off the back of
encouraging Premier League progress and a summer spending splurge.
Given that the top three in England and France are now
absent. It’s hard not to see why some are levelling the above accusation, but
the tournament will still take plenty of winning and it’s much more a case of
things having opened up. It should be remembered that of the above, United
failed to beat Basle, Porto were in a tough section anyway while disappointing,
and Borussia Dortmund couldn’t hack it away, Ajax blew many decent chances in a
double header against Lyon, and Valencia were against Leverkusen and Chelsea, a
section that was always going to be hard to pass.
Winning the Champions League was never going to be easy
anyway, with not only Barcelona, but now Real Madrid bossing European football,
and many will see Barcelona as the team to beat, which is no surprise given
their hugely impressive dominance last season and a frankly astonishing home
record which has seen them avoid defeat at the Camp Nou since October 2009, and
that’s not a position I’d be arguing with.
However, given that we’ve only just entered the last 16, a
best price of 7/5 makes little appeal as an outright betting proposition
despite the fact that their 3-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen in Germany means that
they’re practically in the Quarter finals. In any case, the Messi top scorer
double we have seems just as likely and at 6’s, that can be left to ride.
In any case, tougher tests still await for them – Leverkusen
were missing many first team players and had won just 1 in six – while no
team’s retained the title since AC Milan in 1990. That may be more of a
statistical anomaly than not but the various circumstances involved in making
it so can de rail even the best of teams which is why followers of Guardiola’s
side would be better off backing on a game by game basis.
Arch rivals Real Madrid have been beaten by Barcelona 5 times
under Jose Mourinho’s but steadily the gap has been closing to the point that
one cannot be sure of victory for Pep Guardiola’s side are probably fairly
priced at 11/4 given that they’re 10 points clear in La Liga.
A goal difference of +17 indicates not only a serious attack
but a rock hard defence, and while no team wants to visit the Bernabeu, a
record of three wins on the road says a lot for Jose Mourniho’s all starts.
Christiano Ronaldo has reached yet another level this
season, breaking the clasico hoodoo while topping La Liga’s scoring charts,
although he has several other scoring options that he can turn to if needed,
with the likes of Karim Benezema, Angel Di Mari and Gonzalo Higuain all capable
of breaking the tightest of situations, while they’ve won their last 26 outside
the El Clasico.
Barcelona held them to just a goal in the semi-final last
year but they’ve clearly closed the gap right up since then and they still may
not have to meet the holders, in which case few in Europe can hope to match up
to them. A trip to CSKA Moscow isn’t going to be a walk in the park but they’ve
got the class to do it and the Russians were beaten by Lille and Inter at home.
Next we have Bayern Munich, cut into 13/2 after the exodus
of many familiar names from the completion. They’ve arguably been the most
impressive qualifiers so far, having beaten Manchester City and Napoli when
they needed to, while strolling past the hapless Villarreal.
While they didn’t have the glittering records that either of
the big two had, it should be remembered that a second string team was sent to
Eastlands with the team already through and qualified - Manuel Neuer, Philipp Lahm, Mario Gomez,
Franck Ribery and Thomas Mueller all didn’t make the trip while it was clear
the team were in second gear, and they
should have won in Naples but for missing plenty of chances, including a
penalty save, and as we’ll come to later, there’s lots to like about Napoli.
The drawback? The wheels have stuttered since then, if not
quite come off. Now 4 points of the summit of the Bundesliga after a 0-0 draw
against Freiburg, having more worryingly lost all of their matches against
fellow title contenders, a worrying statistic considering the quality of opposition
they’ll have to face assuming they get past Basle (Milan and Barcelona are
already into the quarters for example, while neither of Benfica or Zenit will
be an easy tie).
That said, they could have had worse ties than Basel – who are
a difficult team themselves to face but also one that have drawn their last
three matches – and their general quality is right up there with the best. 6
wins, two draws and a defeat is hardly awful form, and the 20/1 we have outright
on them can be left to ride in the hope they make the home final at the Allianz
Arena.
AC Milan are through to the quarter finals already thanks to
their destrcution of Arsenal at the San Siro, which was admittedly very
impressive. Infact it’s hard to fault their claims at 12/1, given how well they
performed in two games against Barcelona in the group stages and their
frontline – Pato, Ibrahimovic, and Robiniho – should scare even the best of
defences, although tougher tasks surely await than Arsenal, who are flattered
by 4th in the Premier League.
Chelsea make no appeal at 14/1 though. Out of form since
beating Valencia and Manchester City twice in the space of a week, Andre Villas
Boas’s men have failed to win 6 of their last 10, scoring just 13 goals in that
time.
They face a very tough task on their travels next week, with
a first leg against Napoli, and the fact that they were held by Genk and beaten
by Leverkusen after going 1 up does not bode at all well for them in the red
hot atmosphere at Naples.
Of course they could well raise their game for the
competition – it’s one of two trophies they have a realistic chance of winning –
but the same can be said of their last 16 opponents and at 14/1 other teams
have better claims.
One of those teams could well be Chelsea’s opponents Napoli (right),
who look big at 40/1, a price almost certainly based on their disappointing League
season which sees them sit sixth in the Serie A table, a full 13 points of
leaders AC Milan.
The basis to that has probably been the 5 home draws along
with the dropped points against Siena (only 1 from home and away), Cesna and
Catania, but they’ve been excellent against the bigger teams this season and it’s
hard not to forget how they took 4 points off City (vastly superior overall to
Chelsea despite the 2-1 defeat they suffered at Stamford Bridge) in the Group
stages, while they gave Bayern two big scares home and away.
Their recent form has improved a fair bit – They have just 2
defeats in their last 10 matches and a comprehensive win against Fiorentina is
a big improvement on their away results compared to the disappointing losses
beforehand – and their style of play (they averaged just 40% of possession
during the group stages) means that they can in theory operate just as well away
from home as they do in Naples, which spells trouble for their opponents.
Lyon hold a 1-0 advantage in their tie against APOEL but
have hardly been settling Ligue 1 alight and still have the much more daunting proposition
of going to Cyprus to negotiate – Zenit and Porto have been beaten there this
year – before we can even start talking about winning the competition. Whatever
happens, they’re likely to find at least one team too strong this year, and the
same can probably be said about the Cypriots despite their admirable efforts.
Nobody will want to take either of Benfica or Zenit, and
125/1 might seem big for a team going to Portugal with a 1 goal lead, but the
Portugese leaders too will feel confident about overturning the tie and with a
price of 40/1 likely to be on offer about whoever gets through, it might be
better to wait and see out the tie.
Marsellie and Inter are still to play but neither looks good
enough this year – Inter’s ageing side are on the brink of slipping out of the
top ranks of Italian football, which makes it 5 games in Serie A without a win,
and Marsellie were held enough in their group to think there are a good few
teams better than them.
Advice
1 pt each/way Napoli (40/1 general)
1 pt Napoli to reach final (16/1 Bwin)
1 pt Napoli to reach Semi Finals (5.2 Betfair)
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