6 Nations

Italy (6/4) v Scotland (8/11)

This always seems to be the Wooden Spoon decider – Italy and Scotland have battled to avoid the Wooden Spoon seven times in the past 12 seasons  -and the choice between either team isn’t very appealing today.

Despite a new coach in Jacques Brunel – a surprising change given the general improvement made over several years by coach Nick Malett – Italy seem to have gone backwards in terms of performance with four straight losses, being unable to find the fluency wanted in their backline despite retaining the considerable grunt upfront that they’ve always been based on.

However second half trashings against France, Ireland and Wales seem to have put them right back in their place at the bottom of the table, with only 3 tries to their name all tournament and just 40 points. Even taking into account they’ve had a terrible fixture list- they’ve played Ireland, Wales and France away from home – they let England back in after leading 12-6 at the interval and had chances to win the game that they blew out late on thanks to Tobias Botes’s two missed kicks at goal.

In any case, it’s desperately hard to argue that Scotland haven’t played the better rugby. Despite being on their worst run of form for eight years few could argue that the level of performance shown by Robinson’s side has risen vastly on last year, with the trio of John Barclay, David Denton and Ross Rennie proving to be an impressive midfield of ball carriers while Stuart Hogg’s try against France may have been the start of a promising carrer for the full back.

The Edinbrugh half back pairing of Greig Laidlaw and Mike Blair have dictated play well enough when allowed the ball if a kicking game ensues they might not be at the total disadvantage that many expect thanks to Italian pack power.

However, they’ve nearly always conspired to lose somehow, messing up two golden chances against England before Charlie Hodgson’s chargedown saw them lose at Murrayfield against England for the first time since 2006, while they will feel aggrieved to have lost against France too given the nature of the two tries they conceded.

Wales looked an impossible task but even then they were better than the defeat and it can’t be impressed enough how badly the two sin binnings cost them – Wales did all their work in the 13 minute gap which saw them down to 14 and then 13 – while they had a try disallowed in that time period. They came out flying in the first 30 minutes against Ireland and were closer than many expected them to be following Richie Gray’s try but toothlessness before the break in defence – which has cost them this championship - put the game out of their reach and the lacklustre performance in the second half has to be a big worry.

It’s negated by the fact that Italy themselves have scored just 9 points in the second half of games, but Scotland were at their worst after the break against the Irish, Welsh and English, which means the game is really best left from an outright perspective. The last two matches between these sides and 3 overall have all come under the 38 points line however, and with Italy having scored just 40 themselves (Scotland only 50) that might offer the best value in a tight game.

Advice

3 pts under 38 points (5/6 general)