6 Nations 2012 - England (8/5) v Wales (4/6)

Wales’s last win at Twickenham was in 2008 but Warren Gatland’s side have improved a large amount since then and look to have an excellent chance of claiming their 20^th Triple Crown there today.

This is the first time in years that Wales travel to Twickenham as favourites but it’s for good reason – they seem to be the better side going into this game. Over the past five months Wales have been steadily climbing through the ranks in World Rugby, with several impressive performances in the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand seeing them gain a new army of admirers.

The most significant wins during this time both came against Ireland, and both were hugely impressive, the extra fitness showing during the second half of their World Cup quarter final in Wellington, while composure and nerve took them to a 23-21 win in Dublin with several key figures out of the side.

They may have lost to South Africa, France and Australia in the World Cup but all three teams could claims to be a fair bit stronger than England in their current state and they had valid excuses for all three defeats.

A wrongly missed James Hook penalty, along with a failed Rhys Priestland drop-goal attempt from in front of the posts, snatched victory away from them, while that infamous red card for captain Sam Warburton and an injury to prop Adam Jones hampered them when they were so unlucky to go down by a point to France.

Both games against Australia saw them go down valiantly in defeat while they missed key players on both occasions – injury saw them bereft of Jonathan Davies, props Adam Jones and Paul James and lock Alun Wyn-Jones, while James Hook and Mike Phillips had club commitment’s – and they’ve since bounced right back with wins over Ireland and Scotland, who they both had to break down the hard way after long sticky spells.

That composure will be needed to beat England but one couldn’t failed to be impressed with their 13 minute burst of 3 tries against a Scotland side that robbed themselves of victory against the English in Week one.

With the side now coming close to full strength – captain Sam Warbuton looks set to start, although even he may be upstaged by the return of Alyn Wyn Jones in the lineout against a side that lost the ball three times against Italy, and the fact that George North has shrugged off an ankle knock suffered against Scotland.

The 4/6 on offer is just a little short but still well worth taking, with the 1-12 point winning option looking like a great addition to the portofilio given that New Zealand and South Africa are the only visiting teams to have scored more than 20 points at Twickenham since 2009 – a pointer towards unders in the match points if you’re so inclined.

England are unbeaten in two and many recent sides have been pragmatic but the two wins were especially unconvincing and much improvement is needed. They’ve had two games to gel together, although this is still a hugely inexperienced new side  - seven of the starting XV boast three caps or fewer – and we still don’t know if they were any better than Martin Johnston’s side – recent evidence could not conclusively say that they were. One can never underestimate the factor of Twickenham in this encounter but it has to be taken into perspective with the teams playing.

They could well have lost against both Scotland and Italy – it’s not hard to argue that they should have lost both – with Scotland having a try disallowed and blowing a whole load of chances, while Italy’s Tobais Botes missed two kickable penalties to win the game for the Azzuri.

They’ll be a harder team to beat today with Owen Farell (who has been one of the stars of the past year for Saracens and England) wisely trusted with kicking duties, along with the starting places of Manu Tuilangi and Ben Morgan hopefully enlisted to help in midfield – England made only one linebreak against Italy.

While those improvements should see a close game, it’s hard not to think that this is the visitors best chance of winning at Twickenham since 2008 and they can take it with both hands on their way to a 21^st triple crown.

Advice

5 pts Wales (4/6 general)

2 pts Wales to win by 1-12 (13/8 Ladbrokes)