Rugby World Cup 2011 - Saturday 1st October

After a fairly docile week judging by the standards of this Rugby World Cup, things really move up a gear with the conclusion of the pool stages. As things stand, we have the tempting proposition of a draw which is split into Southern and Northern Hemispheres following Ireland’s win over Australia. Not too much should be able to change in terms of Group winners and runners up, although anything’s possible in what’s essentially knockout Rugby.

Australia (1/5000) v Russia (200)

The action starts with Australia taking on Russia in what should be a warm up for a hard hitting Semi – final against South Africa, if all goes to plan. The Wallabies defeat to Ireland is still possibly a contentious bone to pick for the side but they bounced back in typical style with a 65 – 7 rout of a second string USA side.

The Wallabies ran in 11 tries in their 67-5 rout of the Eagles and they should run riot again here despite some team changes in response to costly injuries - Back-rower Wycliff Palu has already been forced to return home with a hamstring injury while Rob Horne (fractured cheekbone), Anthony Faingaa (concussion), Pat McCabe (dislocated shoulder) and Kurtley Beale (hamstring strain) and Digby Ioane (fractured thumb) are all out – Massive blows in terms of a long term challenge.

This moves number eight Radike Samo onto the wing, while blindside flanker Scott Higginbotham gets his first chance of the World Cup at blindside Flanker. Quade Cooper – Who’s still getting stick for his performance against Ireland and didn’t prove much against the USA, for all he was a creative force to be reckoned with – is one of only 2 (the other being Drew Mitchell) to remain from the three-quarter line selected against the USA.

Russia, who have impressed with their spirit and enterprise – They’ve been the only second tier nation to regularly threaten their opponents tryline – have gained many fans thanks to their attacking exploits and will be trying to go out with a bang, although this on paper is their hardest test of the tournament, having faced a second string Ireland team that ran up a total of 62 points. The same should happen again for them and Australia might be worth backing on the second half handicap, with points or tries betting set at extremely high lines.  

Advice: 1 pt Australia -37.5 on second half handicap (5/6 Betfred)

France (1/66) v Tonga (22)

The pressure on France’s Marc Liveremont is growing after he dropped fly-half François Trinh-Duc and any sort of win against Tonga will do ahead of a possible match up with England. They were thrashed by the All Blacks but there’s not much point reading into that game. After a very strong opening 9 minutes France were cut open but assuming they win this game then their route doesn’t involved the All Blacks and while neither team gave their all, there’s a feeling France put in a shocker. Plenty of missed tackles in defence was aided by the 9-10 paring of Parra and Mermoz, while after that, their heads dropped. While there are a lot of problems, better is yet to come from the French.

The small matter of Tonga is not be taken lightly though. Lievremont has decided to once again go with Parra alongside Yachvili in the half-backs, with Medard at fullback and Alexis Palisson on the left wing. In the pack, William Servat returns at hooker in place of Dimitri Szarzewski, a wise move based on his poor effort against the All Blacks.

Tonga have been just as erratic – A superb second half effort against New Zealand was followed by a poor effort against Canada, meaning they need a bonus point win to go through tonight. If France don’t show, they really don’t show but they should have too much for the Islanders.

That said, they’ve been unconvincing so far and are unlikely to cover a 25 point handicap if they struggle early on, which is possible – Late tries have been a fixture with Les Bleus so far.

Advice: 2 pts Tonga +26 (10/11 general)

England (1/5) v Scotland (11/2)

Rarely have the Auld Enemy had so much to fight for. Following '30 seconds of madness’ according to Andy Robinson after their narrow defeat by Argentina, a game in which they played running rugby under filthy conditions and lost thanks to one mistake in defence, having played very well for 70 minutes.

As harsh as the defeat was on Scotland, it leaves them all but out of the competition. Should England get two match points (essentially win) they will go through, while Scotland need to  deny England the bonus point while also winning by 8 points or more, something they haven’t done since 1986.

It’s not impossible to envisage defeat for the odds on favourites – England haven’t won any of their last three away from Twickenham against the Scotland, while they’ve been kept tryless in two of their last three at Twickenham.

Ireland were in a similar situation against Australia and managed to win – Although Scotland’s team suggests that they’ll be moving to a running game which might not be their typical style – and England do look worthy favourites, if not worthy of being 1/6 to beat a team who they’ve only won against at home since 2005.

The Red roses have been fairly impressive after a grinding win against Argentina, running 6 tries past Georgia (easier said than done) while dismissing Romania’s second XV as they should have done. Both time they’ve looked dynamic with ball in hand and have scored plenty of tries, so the backs will be constant threat should England decide to run the ball.

That’s easier said than done though and this could be a very tight kickfest – As England’s game against Argentina was. Both teams will try to win the ball too much to make the 14’s about No Tryscorer appeal, while under 41 points could go far (it’s generally 5/6).

There’s more value in England to edge this clash though, and a win by 1-12 points is 13/8 with Stan James, which could be value in a tight game that both sides will want to win an way possible. Another bet which caught the eye was the time of the first try – You can get 5/6 with Bet365 that it’s after 17:30 on the clock, which makes appeal given it took until the 67^th minute for the first try to arrive in the last meeting between the two.

Advice: 2 pts England to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Stan James) 

Rugby World Cup 2011- South Africa v Samoa

World Cup holders South Africa are beginning to get on a run of form and should be aiming to send Samoa home in style on Friday.

The Islanders must beat South Africa to reach the knock out stages but given the state of the pool a win over the Springboks might not be enough to see the Samoans progress as their opponents only need a bonus point to secure qualification for the last eight, while Wales hold the head to head advantage based on their win over Samoa.

That defeat came only 3 days after the Samoans opening  game – A contentious topic for their team in more than one way since –but they still face a very uphill task here against the Boks.

South Africa got a great slice of luck when beating Wales but they have since improved from that, with a 49-3 thrashing of Fiji particularly impressive, with the opponents unable to get points on the board in the second half – While Nambia couldn’t do so throughout the whole game.

Samoa were 20 points better than Fiji on Sunday, which equates to an artificial superiority of about 20 points at least, so the handicap of 17 is understandable on that basis. The half time handicap of 8 points is also tempting too – South Africa have been ahead at the break in their last 5 games, including the Tri Nations deciders against Australia and New Zealand. Samoa are a smart team but the clear class edge could tell early.

Team news sees Bismarck du Plessis, believed by many to be the best hooker in the world, get his chance ahead of the under fire John Smit, while the return of Victor Matfield for the injured Bakkies Botha in the second-row will please many; Botha is a loss but Matfield is one of South Africa’s finest players.

Advice

2 pts South Africa 7.5 on 1^st half* handicap (5/6 Betfred)

*Handicap is “no draw” – So SA must be leading by more than 8 points

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Tuesday 27th September

Japan are out to end a 20 year winless streak at this the World Cup against Canada – A side which they have a decent record against – In Napier tomorrow morning. It’s rather apt that the closest Japan have come in the 17 intervening games was a draw against none other than Canada in Bordeaux four years ago, and they have won their most recent clashes in convincing fashion.

That was in 2009, and a fair bit has changed since, with Canada now being ranked higher than Japan on the IRB rankings, and the Canucks have looked the better side at this World Cup. A line through France, who beat Canada 19-46 & Tonga 47-21, has them as equals, but Japan’s worryingly error strewn defeat against Tonga, during which they made 14 handling errors and conceded 20 turnovers sees them as 6 point underdogs (7 with Coral).

It’s not impossible that Japan could really show up at their best here, although it’s very hard to see them getting the better of a Canadian pack that managed to make Tonga concede several errors – Pushing over a pack which did keep New Zealand down to just 10 second half points is no mean feat at all – and the Brave Blossoms will need to be on their game, especially against the breakdown.

Bet 365 offer 2/1 about Canada winning both halves, which is very interesting, but the strong starts made by the Canucks at this World Cup (going in only 9 points down to France, and leading Tonga by 3 points), make the half time handicap a tempting option at just -2.5 points – They have trailed at the break in their last 4 matches.

Moving on swiftly, Italy then play the USA in what’s a crucial clash for the Azzuri – A bonus point is a necessity if they are to have any chance of qualifying, and that’s without them beating Ireland.

They currently lie third in the Pool with five points, five behind the Wallabies, and today’s game in hand over their rivals. A convincing bonus-point win would put them level on points with Australia ahead of their final clash with Ireland - in which a win would see the Italians progress to the quarter finals, probably at the expense of the Irish.

Both teams changed almost their entire XV’s for games against Russia and Australia, so both sides are all full strength – Which should make for a fascinating game. Against Ireland, the USA had to give up 70 per cent of the territory and still only let in 22 points (rain helped) while Todd Clever made 15, Louis Stanfill made 14 and Shawn Pitman made 13 tackles against the men in green.

Italy showed lots of pace against Russia with a far inferior team than this but will take to be careful to cover themselves given their USA’s wing pace, and getting through the USA’s defence won’t be easy by any stretch for them, so a -20 point handicap should give some hairy moments and that might be best split in favour of the first half deficit of 11 – The USA have trailed in 3 of their last 5 but much more notable is Italy’s strong presence before the break – 38 of their 53 points came before half time against Russia.

Advice

1 pt Canada -2.5 on 1^st half handicap v Japan (4/5 Bet365)

1 pt Italy -10.5 on first half handicap (5/6 Betfred) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Wales v Nambia

After another thrilling weekend, which didn’t bring the Sunday success I’d hoped – Apologies if you missed the advice on Saturday, although I was clear on twitter – we move onto what should be a more docile game when Wales send Namibia home after just 17 days in the tournament.

This match for Wales is about avoiding injury -  Dan Lydiate and James Hook are among just two names causing the Welsh concerns, while Shane Williams has a worrying thigh strain which some feel could rule him out of the tournament.

 

Predictably, Warren Gatland has made a record amount of changes for his side at a World Cup, with 11 players coming into the XV that beat Samoa 17-10 – With only Sam Warburton, Alyn Wyn Jones, Toby Faletau and Jonathan Davies being replaced.

That should still be good enough for them to put a large amount of tries past Nambia, who have let in 185 so far, including 87 against South Africa, and a 58 point handicap is fair based on previous evidence, given South Africa were able to cover it with ease and not much rests between the two on the only evidence we have – Indeed many will still resent the fact Wales didn’t win the game against South Africa – although much of it results on how fast Galtand’s changed 11 gets out of the blocks here.

The bet could be to back Wales with a view to the second half handicap. 31 points is fairly hefty but Wales do have an impressive second half record, having won their last 5 on the bounce, while Namibia in the fashion of many minnows, tend to see fitness and professionalism count more in the last 40.  

Advice

3 pts Wales -29.5 on 2^nd half handicap (4/5 Bet365) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Sunday 25th September

Fiji (3) v Samoa (4/11)

It’s crunch time now at the Rugby World Cup with many games being crucially important to every team for one reason or another and after defeats to group favourites South Africa and Wales respectively, Fiji and Samoa can only accept victory in Auckland tomorrow morning.

After coming through Namibia with ease, albeit letting their defence slip against the Welwitschas – 25 points is the biggest total Namibia have scored at a tournament – Fiji were taught a lesson by a fitter and more experienced South Africa side who had far more experience.

They were also beaten the last time these two met but it’s important that Samoa might not have been at full strength for that clash and they probably carry the better form thanks a stunning win against Australia that grabbed attention from all quarters despite the Wallabies being understrength.

Since then Samoa have put away Nambia and were leading against Wales before they turned it around – Indeed it’s been more than well publicised that they feel that they would have done so had the game not come just four days after their meeting with Namibia in Rotorua, with their controversial centre Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu likening the schedule for second-tier sides at the Rugby World Cup to the holocaust and apartheid – Remarkably he wasn’t punished.

You can tell how close the two teams are when you find out in their last ten meetings only once has the away side on the day come away with the win. It’ll be natural tomorrow however, which might see class out and Samoa come away with the win, by a fairly tight 1-12 points.

Advice: 2 pts Samoa to win by 1-12 points (15/8 Ladbrokes)

Ireland (1/2000) v Russia (80)

After their stirring upset win over Australia in Auckland last weekend, Ireland have opened up the draw between the Southern and Northern Hemisphere and some are touting a side which had plummeted to eighth in the IRB World Rankings after losing all four of their warm-up games as potential winners.

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Ireland could go on a run to the final – When they are as pumped up as they are against the Wallabies is take a hell of a side to get through them – although for now Declan Kidney will just want them not to mess up the pool stages.

Russia are likely to present no problems – A second string Italy side just ran through them for fun just 5 days ago, and eight changes have been made to the side which lost to Italy – although I wouldn’t be going mad for the Irish on the handicap.

The men in Green, like the Russians, have made eight changes for this match and enjoy playing through the phases before overpowering teams at the line – Their scrum should have a field day especially while the lineout too is a source of worry for the Bears, but a start of 52 points will take some overcoming, especially if there are showers and wind at Roturua.

Advice: 1 pt Russia +52 (evs Paddy Power)

Argentina (8/11) v Scotland (13/10)

The big clash of the day’s action sees Scotland take on Argentina in what is a must win clash for each side – Should Argentina lose they will drop out of the World Cup while defeat means Scotland would have to beat England to qualify.

Argentina had England in a lot of trouble for most of the game before a late try from Ben Young ensured that they wouldn’t get anything from the game, and while they had plenty to offer against Romania, they offered very little in defence and it doesn’t help that against top level sides, Argentina average no more than 15 points a game.

The pumas goal kicking has also been poor this tournament, missing 10 kicks at goal in their two matches so far, while a head to head history shows that Scotland have beaten Argentina in three of their last four meetings, all of which were in South America.

A massive boost for Argentina is the fact that Felipe has been pronounced fit, although he last played centre for the Pumas in November 2008 – But with fly-half Santiago Fernández and Marcelo Bosch, their team does look to have some creativity about it at the least.

Andy Robinson has very much selected a team for the job - the "running option" of Ruaridh Jackson at fly-half has seen Dan Parks drop to the bench – while Rory Lawson has a 100% win rate as Captain while other chances include a recall for Scotland's most-capped player, Chris Paterson, at full-back.

This suggests that Scotland could very well try not to play a kicking only game and run the ball which is potentially wise although interesting given that they’ve scored 20 tries in 22 matches. A poor weather forecast too, of showers with wind, is likely to make going for tries tricky, as well as kicking too in the end.

You go can under 38 to under 32 points which is worth a look if you don’t fancy anything, but the value here lies with Scotland by 1-12 points, with a saver on no tryscorer at 14/1 looking like value, although going under on the points does look a good option too.

Advice: 2 pts Scotland to win by 1-12 points (2/1 Betfred), 1 pt No Tryscorer (14/1 Betfred) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Australia v USA

After a chastening defeat to Ireland Australia are still major contenders for the World Cup but their press didn’t see the lighter side of things.

Embarrassing", "second-rate", "dumb" and a "disaster" were just some of the words used to describe their defeat – take a look at what the Sydney Morning Herald had to say below (courtesy of the Guardian)

"It doesn't get any more embarrassing than this for Australian rugby. The Wallabies were yet again shown to be second-rate by one of the also-rans of world rugby. Their World Cup campaign is in tatters following a deplorable performance against Ireland at Eden Park, when they chose the wrong moment to completely fall apart. It wasn't some dumb footy, it was completely dumb footy. For being so dumb, they should be forced to wear World Cup dunces hats for at least the next week. You had to admire Ireland's courage, endeavour and smart game plan, but it was more that the Wallabies were appalling.”

The above words are more harsh than fair – Declan Kidney brought the most of his charges in brilliant fashion while their scrummaging was world class – Adding to the great performances from Sean O'Brien, Stephen Ferris and Paul O'Connell. The Wallabies were poor by their own high standards though and that will have been drummed into them well and truly.

The USA should present much less of a challenge but for the first time in this World Cup – New Zealand apart – There’s some real pressure on the Wallabies to perform here and put on a show against a second tier side.

The USA aren’t really anybody’s mugs – They play solid rugby and can present you with their fair share of problems – But coach Eddie O'Sullivan has made 14 changes, with Saracens second-row Hayden Smith is the only player to be retained following the tight victory over Russia. That could leave a seriously weak team for what is going to be a very motivated, if not full strength Wallabies side.

Quade Cooper and Will Genia (above) get a chance to redeem themselves and both need good performances to underline their high class credentials while Tighthead prop Ben Alexander has a massive point to prove after getting smashed by Ciran Healy again and again last week.

A handicap of 60 points is achievable for the Wallabies but you can get 4/5 about them putting 66 or more points on the board, which is well worth a shot against a makeshift side. With that in mind, the second half handicap of 31 points might also be a runner – It’s generally accepted that this is the fittest XV in world Rugby.

Advice

2 pts Australia to score 66 or more points (4/5 general)

1 pt Australia -31 on 2^nd half handicap (10/11 Hills) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Japan v Tonga

Thanks to some very shrewd advice, long before I had started writing this, Japan were the pick for their crucial head to head with Tonga in in Whangarei on Wednesday.

The match odds around this seem to be using New Zealand as a colloquial formline, which is understandable but seemingly flawed. Tonga held New Zealand to 12-7 in the second half when they lost to the All Blacks in the tournament opener on September 9 but the home side were home and hosed by then which flattered Tonga.

This was proven when they faltered after leading 20-13 with 20 minutes to go against a spirited Canada side who were always going to take some pegging back in hindsight against what was a much changed team. Maka rightly faced criticism in the wake of the clash due to his chop-and-change policy and it’s a worry that he still persists with this policy, as the team which takes to the field has again had many changes.

Japan were smashed 83-7 by New Zealand when last seen but Kirwan conceded defeat to New Zealand by selecting a second-string team – 10 changes were made including fly – half James Arlidge (above) who scored all of Japan’s points is now back into the side for this game.

Indeed, Kirwan has named has named 13 of the line-up which took to the field against France in their World Cup opener, with the only two players not to return being injured. A winning margin of 47-21 was flattering to Livermont’s charges as Japan tired late on, and that should serve notice of the capability of the Blossoms.

There’s plenty of recent form to go on – The two sides play against each other in the Pacific Nations and since Kirwan has taken over Japan have won the last 5 meetings, the latest being an epic 27-28 win.

At the late – is time of writing, the main value has gone on Japan – They were 4-1 on Sunday and you could have gotten a 12 point start – But a 6 point start should see them be very competitive indeed and that can be topped up with a general back at around 15/8, which still looks too big.

Advice

3 pts Japan +6 (10/11 Boylesports)

2 pts Japan (15/8 Sportingbet) 

Rugby World Cup 2011- Italy v Russia

If Italy are going to progress to the Quarter Finals of the World Cup then they’ll need to play out of their skins to do so before they can even being to think of beating Ireland and this spells trouble for Russia when they play them tomorrow morning.

Following Ireland’s massive win against the Wallabies (below), with Italy having already lost to them and having an unenviable record against Ireland - They’ve not beaten the in green for nearly 14 years (although they nearly got one over on them in the Six Nations, where missed kicks cost them) qualification looks beyond them if things go the way that the market sees them.

 

Back to the task in hand, and Italy have made steady improvement now to the point that they are no longer the cast iron certs for the 6 Nations wooden spoon – They really shouldn’t have been last this year – And their record against the second tier is largely outstanding.

To underline this, the Azzuri have won all of the matches since 1990 between these two, and they beat Japan (one of world Rugby’s most improved sides) 31-24 while also beating Fiji 24-16. While they were beaten fairly heavily by Australia, Italy held them to 6-6 at the break and the Russians are a significant drop in class for a side that rarely gets a break in terms of test Rugby.

As valiant as Russia were against the USA (they only went down 13-6 against a decent yardstick in the USA) their inexperience showed – Many handling mistakes were made out wide – And despite looking more at home in wet conditions they failed to make that many chances.

That’s not to say Russia are there to make up the numbers but in what is forecasted to be good Rugby weather Italy look fair value to rack up a decent win and the way to go might be the half time handicap – Italy are known for strong showings before the break and with plenty of pace in the side on dry ground, may well be worth value to cover 10 points on the first half handicap.

Advice 

2 pts Italy -9.5 on 1^st half handicap (4/5 Bet365) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Sunday 18th September

Wales (1/5) v Samoa (11/4)

After Ireland’s dramatic win over Australia, we have another game which has just as much potential for drama, and given the circumstances surrounding the game, it could be one of the best of the tournament.

After a period of much uncertainty for Wales in the end it was they who deserved a win against World Champions South Africa in their opening game before falling just short late on in a game they should have won by 6 had it not been for Hook’s wrongly unreferred/disallowed kick and Preistland’s missed drop goal.

Sam Warburton, Toby Faletau, Jamie Roberts and Rhys Priestland all had close to career best games that day and while it is also a sign of huge encouragement for their chances, the same effort will once again be needed against an in form and highly rated Samoa side who now look like their main rival for qualification behind South Africa.

Despite having not played a test for three months – After beating Australia in Sydney – Samoa brushed aside any possible fitness concerns with a convincing 59 – 12 win over Namibia and now look like the most complete side Wales have faced in a meeting between the two.  

Giant winger Alesana Tuilangi was been in terrific try scoring form, with a hat – trick against Namibia, and he will be looking to get his name on the scoresheet for sure today against a back three that was breached twice by a below par South Africa.

As far as the match call is concerned, Wales get a tight vote here. They’ve made some steady progress and really should have beaten the World Champions last time, so shouldn’t be scared by a physical clash with the inform Islanders. Samoa are obviously a real danger and huge threat, but if Wales allow themselves to keep their heads up they can out battle them and keep their qualification hopes alive.

Advice: 2 pts Wales to win by 1-12 points (9/5 Bet365)

England (1/66) v Georgia (50)

England were made to scrap for a win against Argentina and Georgia will be no less easy for them. A tight and tense encounter for Martin Johnson’s side ended in a small margin win thanks to the injection of pace that Ben Young’s provided and it’s interesting to see 2 other pacey backs in the shape of Ben Foden and crucially everyone’s favourite tryscorer Chris Ashton, who can boast 9 tries in just 14 caps, a remarkable record.

On another points scoring note, Toby Flood now gets his chance with the new ball after Jonny Wilkinson's faltering display with the boot against Argentina in what is a pivotal game for budding fly half – Lewis Moody and Nick Easter add some much needed muscle to England.

Georgia will be a massive test once again for England – Should they be able to impose a forward based game on them like they were with Scotland, who had enough to come through anyway. Should the same happen again then it’s likely to be some hairy moments for Johnston’s men but things here will be different from Wednesday – The stadium has a roof so it’s dry conditions all the way and a quick turnaround for all but 2 of the Lelos’ starting XV is likely to prove a hindrance late on, which leads us to our match calls below.

England’s shortest handicap is one of 35 points, which seems fair if they can get the ball out to the wings but a lot relies on a decent early start in terms of try scoring – In running might be the way to do it. It requires less faith to back them giving up 19 points on the second half handicap – Many Georgians could be getting tired and sloppy by then which doesn’t bode well given England’s strong showing after the break – They won the second half 10-3 against Argentina, 7-0 against Ireland, won games after coming in level (9-9) against Scotland and France in the 6 Nations while also doing the same against Wales.  Should England struggle badly though, a win by 1-12 points is as big as 14’s with Betfred, which can’t go untouched.

 Advice: 2 pts England -19 on 2^nd half handicap (5/6 Betfred), 1 pt England to win by 1-12 points (14/1 Betfred)

France (1/50) v Canada (28)

Tournament shouts France made a satisfactory start when avoiding a shock against Japan but tinkerman manager Marc Livermont may give himself more trouble than he’s worth by naming a second string outfit and against a spirited Canada side fresh from an excellent win over a much changed Tonga in which they answered many doubts about their set pieces with a thoroughly spirited display.

Lièvremont criticised his side after the Japan game for failing to play as a unit so 12 changes here doesn’t bode well for a side that were given more than a few hairy moments by Japan before three late tries. Without the established backs that make France so brilliant in their link up play, one has to worry about how fluent the side will be, let alone how they respond under pressure.  

Canada have named an unchanged team, both starting XV and bench, for this game which suggests that another big effort is in the offing and that they genuinely believe they can shock Les Bleus. That shouldn’t be the case here but France aren’t necessarily the cleanest of sides at the back and a 32 point handicap might be asking a lot of them if they don’t click early.

They should come through though, and a tight win would not surprise at all so 1-12 points gets the call at 7/1 with Ladbrokes.

Advice: 2 pts Canada +32 (10/11 Skybet, Totesport, Betfred), 1 pt France to win by 1-12 points (7/1 Ladbrokes)

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Saturday 17th September

Argentina (1/14) v Romania (14/1)

Argentina will have felt hard done by not to beat England in their opening game after leading for a long way, before eventually going down to just a bit of pace thanks to Ben Youngs and also indiscipline late on.

The Pumas are feeling that match - centre Gonzalo Tiesi has been ruled out of the World Cup following a knee injury, while their key man Felipe Contepomi will miss this match after suffering a rib injury, and both are big blows.

Argentina must work on their goal-kicking too, with only three kicks from 9 attempts being landed and conditions (see later) are not likely to be helpful to kicks being landed this morning, with Romania’s Marin Dumbrava also missing two key penalties to drive home his side's advantage against Scotland.

Romania surprised many (me included) and defied thoughts they were in decline when pushing Scotland all the way in their opener when coming within 10 minutes of pulling off one of the greatest upsets in the history of the World Cup.

After a poor start by the Oaks, once they started to get at their forwards, they really got at Scotland after a shambolic early start – They were down 15-3 at one stage – and their forward pressure is likely to give Argentina quite a few problems.

The handicap gives Romania a 21 point starts, which makes far more appeal for them than it does for Argentina – The Pumas have key men out and conditions don’t look helpful for points scoring with possible showers and wind – And while Argentina are likely to go for a strong side, the same was true of Scotland and they nearly capitulated. Both teams would have to be rated pretty much equal ion recent form while the last meeting between the two was a 13-9 win to Scotland.

A franchise defeat to the Argentina Kings which sees eight of the 15 players retain their place suggests that there’s a fair gap between the two teams and with conditions tempering enthusiasm for a wide margin win which sees the vote go to Romania for a 10 point start on the first half handicap – It would have seen Chile and Uruguay come home ahead and while the first against Argentina’s B side wasn’t hopeful, their opening WC performance  suggest that with weather in hand, they can hold out for 40 minutes.

Advice: 1 pt Romania +10 on 1^st half handicap (10/11 Totesport)

South Africa (1/14) v Fiji (12)

After being given an almighty scare by Wales in their tournament opener last Sunday, a point spread of 22 points makes little or no appeal for South Africa against a Fiji side that while loose in defence against Namibia – Namibia scored only 30 in their whole campaign last time around – showed plenty of attacking intention and verve.

While the Springboks pride themselves on being physical, the Fijians can match this - - as shown in the two teams' last meeting four years ago in their quarter-final clash where South Africa were made to sweat for their 37-20 win – And it’s hard not to think the gap hasn’t stretched too much since, certainly not enough to make the game a done deal.

Some say that South Africa are in decline hut their 815 caps probably saw them to a win against Wales by the skin of their teeth – And now they must go into this match without  lock Victor Matfield (hamstring), centre Jean de Villiers (rib cartilage) and wing Bryan Habana (knee).

Crucial enforcer Bakkies Botha is unlikely to last the distance having just recovered from an Achilles problem, adding to the problem that replacement lock Johann Muller is also out. South Africa are likely to try and keep it tight, have plenty of the ball, hit hard at the set pieces and stop Fiji playing properly.

Should Fiji get the ball however, Vereniki Goneva (who scored four times against Namibia) Gaby Lovobalavu and Seremaia Bai are all likely to be finishing fast in what is an expansive side and this points to not only a high scoring, but close match and a winning margin of 1-12 points for South Africa should not be 11/2.

Advice: 2 pts South Africa to win by 1-12 points (11/2 William Hill)

Australia (1/5) v Ireland (11/2)

After a struggling win over the USA in torrid conditions, Ireland face what could be a Pool C decider against Tri Nations winners Australia, who will be very happy with their opening performance when beating Italy 32-6.

Australia were held through the first half but once getting away from Italy, looked very inch a World Cup winner in waiting when scoring 4 tries in just one second half burst of 15 minutes. Ireland had to work rather harder and work all the way to beat the USA but not for a lack of opportunities, with a wet ball leading to 4 handling errors.

What they won’t want a repeat of is the 15 turnovers conceded – Quick ball is lethal to conceded to a side that contains James O’Connor, Will Genia and Quade Cooper – And much more for the likes of Brian O’Driscoll, Johnny Sexton and Sean O’Brien to step up to the plate. If they do, we have a proper contest.

Many of the meetings between the two have been close  - Australia and Ireland have clashed four times at the World Cup and that twice the Wallabies prevailed by a point – But this affair might be more clear cut, thanks to the Wallabies’ second half bursts of late.

 At Eden Park they outscored New Zealand 14-13 in the second half of their Tri-Nations encounter having lost the first half 17-0. A week later, in Durban against the Springboks, they trailed 6-0 at half-time before outscoring their hosts 14-3 in the second half, and against Italy they were level at half time before putting 26 points on the board. Australia will be ready to pounce on any errors Ireland make late on and can win the second half by more than 7 points if their backs are firing.

Advice: 2 pts Australia -6 on 2^nd half handicap (5/6 Betfred) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Russia v USA

The underdogs rise continues at this World Cup with Canada the latest team to spring an upset against Tonga thanks to some awful ball handling and 2 easy missed penalties from Kurt Morath, albeit a deserved one, and it’s now the turn of Russia to step onto the world’s biggest Rugby stage against the USA.

The most impressive thing about Russia’s rise to the world cup is that there are only 5 players in the squad who do not play in Russia; The rest are all home based, which is a tremendous achievement given the use of the Guinness Premiership and Top 14 for other nations.

Melbourne Rebels lock Adam Byrnes, Northampton Saints wing Vasily Artemyev, Sale Sharks lock Andrey Ostrikov, Viatcheslav Grachev (France), and Konstantin Rachkov of Stade Phocéen in Marseille all give quality to the Russian charge, but they’ve got work to do on this stage against a USA side which gave Ireland a few problems despite being demolished by the scrum regularly on Saturday.

Russia’s last competitive encounter was against the Americans in the Churchill Cup when they lost 32-25 and 13 of the starting XV will take the Eagles on again, so the formguide looks fairly solid while treated with caution.

While the Bears should be able to put up a good fight with some solid but technical play, the USA’s pace when asked could be the undoing of their chances. dangerous wingers Takudzwa Ngwenya (above left) and James Paterson are joined by Saracens utility back Chris Wyles, which makes the US more of a threat.

I can’t have them at 6 points on the handicap – Indeed with wind in the air and possible showers I’d be going under on the points at 42.5 (3 put of the last 5 USA matches under and both teams likely to keep it tight with an emphasis on results) but I see better value in the USA to win by 1-12 points, which has been the outcome in 4 of their last 5 successes.

Advice: 2 pts USA to win by 1-12 points (15/8 Ladbrokes) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Wednesday 14th September

Samoa (1/50) v Nambia (33)

The matches in the World Cup have all gone the way of the heavy favourites in the match betting but the match performances of underdogs and “minnows” Romania, Namibia, and Japan against Scotland, Fiji and France has shown that no game is a given at the World Cup anymore, even for a well-established team.

To add to that, Tonga, once into the game fully after a devastating first half, managed to frustrate New Zealand in the second half (which was 13 – 7 in the hosts favour) while 14 point underdogs Wales would have beaten South Africa had it not been for James Hook’s wrongly “missed” penalty and Sam Priestland’s point blank drop goal miss.

None of that makes Nambia remotely interesting against Samoa, who could make a huge hit again in this tournament. Titamea Tafu’s side have made some steady improvement over the past year, making the England, Ireland and Scotland work very hard in defeat with a strong win over Japan.

After honourable defeats against Tonga and France they sent shockwaves around the Rugby world when beating Australia in Sydney – A colossal achievement for any side, even taking into account the fact that Australia were missing Quade Cooper, Will Genia, Kurtley Beale, James O'Connor, James Horwill and David Pocock - annihilating the Wallabies in every category (especially defence).

That same form is going to blow away even the improved Nambians, but there’s no guarantee of that even though named the same side that beat Australia in Sydney. A better bet may well be to back Nambia to cover 13 points on the half time handicap, seeing as Fiji did so despite being behind three times in the early stages of the match.

Advice: 2 pts Samoa -13 on Half Time Handicap (5/6 Paddy Power)

Tonga (1/2) v Canada (9/4)

Handicap underdogs have struggled at this World Cup but Tonga can put that right by beating Canada on Wednesday. The Tongans struggled badly against New Zealand in what was always going to be a near impossible battle but once warming to the task, caused an admittedly unfocused New Zealand side a lot of problems.

The Tongans managed to restrict the All Blacks to just 13 points in the second half while scoring 7 of their own, and should come on a lot for that match with the team likely to know each other much better a more convincing performance should be enough see off Canada.

The Tongans had their most successful World Cup yet in 2007 with two wins over the USA and Samoa earning a third in their pool behind eventual finalists South Africa and England, and have only improved since, with their effort against New Zealand proving that.

Canda reached the final of the Churchill Cup but that was against a contingent of Island teams who had key players out in Europe and they will have to work much harder against a physical Tongan pack who could have the fitness advantage too, and a win by 5 is more than achievable for such a side. As a top up, take the 13/8 that Tonga win both halves.

Advice: 4 pts Tonga -4 (4/5 Paddy Power), 1 pt Tonga to win both halves (13/8 Bet365)

Scotland (1/10) v Georgia (10)

Scotland came through a tough test in try scoring style against Romania but will need all that and more against Georgia, who are on a run of form against second level nations and are currently leading the 2011-12 European Nations Cup with five wins from five matches.

Scotland had to work hard to put Romania away and their scrum was given a torrid time by the Romanian eight on more than one occasions. It could have been even tighter had the Romanians tightened up their tackling, with 22 misses in total.

Not only will Georgia play the same way, but they have an even more physical pack and are a better team than Romania even if their margin of victory in March was just 7 points – They came close to one of the best shocks of all time when nearly beating Ireland 14-10 in 2007 and have improved since.

The inclusion of Dan Parks at fly half is much needed but may not be as effective as desired – Conditions are set to be wet with gusting winds of 15 mph, which stopped Ireland scoring numerous times against the USA – and his drop goal ability will need to be spot on here in what should be a tight game.

Advice: 3 pts Georgia +21 (10/11 Betfred) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Sunday 11th September

Australia (1/25) v Italy (25)

With Ireland in a state of recent disarray the mood in the Italian camp could be one of confidence as they go into this World Cup an established side with a more than manageable pool, the obvious hiccups being today’s opponents and Tri Nations winners Australia.

Italy gained the wooden spoon in the Six Nations but arguably were unlucky to do so – A Ronan O’Gara drop goal saw Ireland escape Rome with a barely deserved win – while a win against France (albeit an outfit in disarray that weekend) was one of their finest moments in recent history.

The Azzuri will need to up their game to qualify here based on recent results - – beating Japan and losing to Scotland –  but they’ve got more potential than of late of should be looking to make the Quarter finals here.

A remarkable first half in Brisbane two weeks ago saw Australia carve up New Zealand's best and gain a Tri-Nations title - their first in a decade – which has boosted hopes of a third World Cup win. With Will Genia and Quade Cooper providing the ammunition for the likes of Kurtley Beale and Digby Ioane their back line could be the best in the World and this match should be plain sailing with The Wallabies unbeaten in all their 13 previous encounters against the Azzuri.

A handicap of 28 points is more than reasonable (The Azzuiri have beaten that mark in the last 5 meeting but not in this situation) – But the Wallabies have won the second half in 4 of their last 5 Tests and a handicap of 15 points in the second half is fair.

Advice: 2 pts Australia -15 on 2^nd Half Handicap (evs Betfred)

Ireland (1/41) v USA (50)

Ireland have been in terrible form of late and now occupy their lowest rankings spot for some time off the back of their 20-9 loss to England in Dublin - Ireland's fourth in their RWC 2011 warm-up matches, having lost to Scotland and France (twice) home and away –And face a tricky pool with Australia and Italy looking to push them out at the Pool stage again.

Ireland didn’t start well 4 years ago (when in better shape) – Scrapping to a 31-17 win over Nambia before nearly being turned over by Georgia 14-10 – And will be desperate to win here.

While the USA get a shot a  potentially below par Ireland, their form isn’t much to shout about - losses to Japan, Canada, (twice), Tonga and Georgia – indicate that they’re not in great shape, but their World Cup performance in France was very encouraging.

In Paris they pushed England, Tonga and Samoa very close, covering the handicap on all three occasions and Coach Eddie O’Sullivan will name their strongest side which should include Chris Wyles, James Patterson, and Zimbabwe born Taku Negwenya, scorer of 8 tries in just 19 International, including the try of the Tournament in France.

The handicap underdogs have had a good start in the tournament and the USA may be worth backing with a 35 point start for interest, while Ireland to win by 1-12 points shouldn’t be as big as 9’s – Any win will do for Declan Kidney’s men.

Advice: 1 pt USA +35 (10/11 Boylesports) 1 pt Ireland to win by 1 – 12 (9/1 general)

South Africa (1/5) v Wales (11/2)

A delicious tie.  World Champions South Africa have been written off by many owing to some poor form since – While others have tried to downgrade their 2007 triumph due to them not facing either New Zealand or Australia during their campaign.

A poor Tri Nations which saw them lose 3 games (failing to cover a single handicap in the process) has seen many look at an ageing side and doubt their credentials for this tournament but with as many as 20 players rested for all their matches but New Zealand – Which they won 18-5 against a second string side – It’s fair to say that’s not an accurate reflection of their talents.

The Enigmatic Peter De Villers has seen the light and gone for experience, meaning the team is the most experienced XV to ever represent South Africa, with a combined caps total of 815 - surpassing the 810 caps of the team that played Australia in Durban in August. That includes 11 players who were part of the 2007 World Cup winning squad, which makes the Springboks a tempting proposition.

Wales come here having beaten England and Argentina but there’s a suspicion that both sides weren’t firing at the Millenium Stadium and South Africa at a neutral venue will be a huge test for Gatland’s side.

With Stephen Jones ruled out by a calf injury, Sam Priestland, a man with only four Test appearances (and two starts) to his name, one of which was at full-back, will deputise and the Springboks, short of Bakkies Botha to play the enforcer role, will target him.

South Africa were tempting to cover a 14 point handicap (7 either half) – but the last 2 meetings have seen only 3 points between the two at the end. However, 9 of the last 12 meetings between these two have seen 41 or more points, which has to be worth a proper punt at 5/6 across the board. South Africa’s scoring has improved of late while Wales won’t lie down without a fight, and both teams have plenty of tries in them thanks to Bryan Habana and George North.

Advice: 4 pts 42 or more points (5/6 general) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Saturday 10th September

Scotland (1/100) v Romania (100) – KO 2:00 AM

Andy Robinson has named a strong and experienced Scotland squad for their World Cup opener and he can be rewarded for that with a comfortable victory over Romania on Saturday morning.

Chris Paterson will join the illustrious list of players to have appeared in four World Cups after being named at fullback while Ross Ford gets his 50^th test appearance for his country. It’s a surprise to see Ruaridh Jackson gets the nod at fly-half ahead of Dan Parks, but Joe Ansbro – Scorer of the try that beat Ireland at Murrayfield in the warm up – is a reassuring presence.

Romania are able to call upon eight members of the side which faced the All Blacks in the 2007 World Cup in France but they’re still on the wane and shouldn’t be troubling Scotland in the slightest, who will want to get going quickly before they take on the big guns in Arengtina and England with wins here and against Georgia.

Scotland have actually won their last three tests so the potential to get on a roll is evident, while notable scalps in the past 2 years include South Africa and Australia, so they have the potential to beat anyone on their day.

Exactly how this related to today’s match doesn’t matter but Scotland landed 42 unanswered points against Romania in 2007 and anything remotely different would be worrying for Andy Robinson’s side.

Advice: 2 pts Scotland -33 (evs Sportingbet)

Fiji (1/41) v Namibia (25) – KO 4:30 AM

After getting through thanks a 38 – 34 thriller against Wales in France, Fiji will fancy their chances of making the Quarter Finals again despite being in the Pool of death and they can start with a romp against Namibia.

Starting against the minnows couldn’t have come at a better time for Fiji  - diplomatic row, illness and a string of poor results have all overshadowed preparations for Fiji, who are now sitting on their worst ever world ranking of 15^th  - and a good rout of the 20^th ranked side in the world seems like the perfect way to forget those problems and run riot.

Special mention goes to Jacques Burger, who will skipper them in New Zealand - the Saracens openside is one of the few full professionals within their squad – and therein lies the problem when Nambia come up against decent sides – And at their best, Fiji are more than just a decent side.

While they should cover the handicap with ease, the half time handicap makes even more appeal – Only one in 12 World Cup matches have Namibia recorded 10 points at half time and despite gradual improvement it’s hard not to imagine Fiji having opened up a lead of 14 points or more by the break.

Advice: 3 pts Fiji -13 on Half Time Handicap (11/10 Paddy Power)

France (1/150) v Japan (66/1) – KO 7:00 AM

All eyes on the tournament tips and entertainers France as they start their campaign against steady improvers Japan, who have risen from 19^th to 13^th in the IRB Rankings since the last World Cup In 2007.

History says that this should be a walkover for France – Japan have only one win to their name in World Cup history - against Zimbabwe in 1991 along with a draw against Canada in 2007 – but Japan are slowly improving all the time and already have the Asian Five Nations (albeit a very weak tournament which can turn into nothing but a walkover) and the Pacific Nations Cup tied up this year.

Coach John Kirwan has made them not only a solid team to play against, but also a team that can run the ball at pace and come wide, which spells danger in part for France. As my tournament picks, I expect France to win against Japan and most likely with something to spare but a 45 point handicap doesn’t make a huge amount of appeal against a side who can cause problems.

In their last meeting between these two – Which I can use as a formguide with confidence given that the Japanese will only have improved and the French in my eyes are as good as ever – Japan managed to get to the break at 20-16, which would make a first half handicap of 24 points tricky for the French to overcome. Some will be surprised I’ve opposed them in any way but it makes sense giving their scoring patterns – In three of their last 5 the second half has seen the most points (which is also worth backing at 4/5 with Skybet) and in the previous meeting between the two the French pulled away at the break with ease, bettering their first half total by 31 – While Japan put on just 13 more points to their total.

Advice: 1 pt Japan +24 on Half Time Handicap (4/5 Betfred), 1 pt Most Points in Second Half (4/5 Skybet)

Argentina (6) v England (1/5) – KO 9:30 AM

England bring some of their best form to a World Cup for some time and will aim to do nothing but win their first match against hard hitters and 2007 stars Argentina, who haven’t reached the same heights since despite being put into the Tri Nations.

Much of the squad which lit up France 4 years ago aren’t here – Only 10 of the 30 remain – While Juan Martin Hernandez misses out with injury, a crucial blow for the Pumas. Captain Felipe Contepomi is the star turn of a side packed with physicality – But one that has an average of no more than 15 points a game against top level sides since 2007 and might come in a bit undercooked, having only played Wales and English Premiership side Worcester as preparation.

While England look like the much better team a big winning margin may not be the case with the game likely to be a grind, while three of England’s 6 Nations wins came by 1 – 10 points – Take the 12/5 Sportingbet offer about the same outcome here.

Advice: 1 pt England by 1-10 points (12/5 Sportingbet)

Rugby World Cup 2011- New Zealand v Tonga

Many have felt that New Zealand’s second World Cup win is long overdue and their first match against Tonga should tell us something about whether they will finally confirm their tag as tournament favourites to open what could be a brilliant World Cup.

The Satus Quo is just like every other tournament – New Zealand are the world’s top ranked team, have the best quad, and are heavy odds on favourites. I’ve already discussed why I won’t be putting them up at that sort of price in a tournament but it’s not hard to see why they won’t be

For the first time in many years New Zealand come into an International test of the back of 2 defeats, which has seen them lose the Tri Nations to Australia. Home turf should see them canter to victory against Tonga, but a handicap of 64 points isn’t of any interest.

Tonga covered the handicap start in all of their Pool games at the last World Cup and had their most successful World Cup yet in 2007 with two wins over the USA and Samoa last time, while pushing the likes of England and South Africa hard.

It would be no surprise to see New Zealand romp home like they did against Tonga in 2003 (91-7) but Tonga have improved since then and a powerful front row is just the kind of challenge which has stopped the All Blacks in recent times at World Cups.

I’m in no way suggesting that Tonga can pull off a shock of epic proportions, just that the 61 point handicap might prove uncomfortable against a fired up team of their nature – The Tongans are tanked just 12^th in the World but were convincing winners against Fiji last time out and will be supported by a very large Polynesian community on Friday.

Instead, the bet maybe to go high on match points at 78.5 – If the Tongans can get some points on the board then it will bring out the best in New Zeland while Graham Henry’s side love to hand out a thrashing, so should they rack up a cricket score it’s only going to be in our favour.

New Zealand’s average points score per group game was 77.25 alone in 2007 while 79 points is the average haul for New Zealand against Tonga based on the limited evidence of three meetings (and the average points difference between them is 74 points), so we seem to have a pretty solid chance.

While that rates a solid wager, it may also be worth backing the second half to produce the most points, which has been the case in 3 of the All Black’s last 5 matches, while the match average at the 2007 World Cup saw 28.3 out of 51.6 (which leaves 23.4 left over) points scored in the second half compared to the first.

Advice

1 pt 79 or more points in match (5/6 Skybet)

1 pt Second half to have most points (4/5 Skybet)

Sri Lanka v Australia - 2nd Test Preview

While England and India fight over the ODI Series, Sri Lanka and Australia are the two biggest test nations playing catch up and the visitors are worth backing to take their second successive test and land a series for the first time since their tour of New Zealand in March 2010.

The first test was dominated by the pitch produced in Kandy to suit Sri Lankan spinners which backfired to the point that the pitch was officially rated "poor" by the ICC match referee Chris Broad and only gave Australia's debutant offspinner Nathan Lyon licence to go through the Sri Lankans in the first innings.

Australia’s record over Sri Lanka now stands at 14-1 in favour of the visitors with matches won (6 draws) and while things should be closer here Michael Clarke’s bullishness about his side’s capability to bat either first or second should not go unnoticed.

The conditions in Galle makes Australia’s first innings effort of 273 all the more creditable especially when you see how badly the Sri Lankans faltered, and the newly built Pallekele stadium should be easier for batting on – Plenty of runs were scored at the World Cup there and in the rained off test between Sri Lanka and the West Indies the visitors made 303.

It’s easy to anticipate Sri Lanka’s batting line improving – They went from 105 to 253 in the next Innings and an improved performance from Captain Tillakaratne Dislhan should also added to that – But the Aussies look value to gain a first innings lead here.

Their batting was a feature of the One Day Series win and they’ve made more in an innings than their hosts on 5 occasions out of 7 on this tour while Sri Lanka were outscored 4 times in two tests against England so the evens available about a first innings lead should be taken.

Advice

1 pt Australia (2/1 general)

2 pts Australia 1^st Innings Lead (evs Totesport) 

Champions League 2011 - 12 Group Stage Guide

Group A

Bayern Munich

So often the dominant force in Germany, Bayern Munich lost out in big style to surprise package Borussia Dortmund last season while losing out to Inter on away goals, losing a tie they were in control of after the first leg.

While the rest of Europe fawned over how amazing Barcelona were and moved on, the main prognosis was that their defence and instantly that has been set to work. New signings Manuel Neuer, Jerome Boateng and Rafinha are a big part of that defensive overhaul which will allow veterans Philip Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger to take charge of a defence that has won to nil both times against FC Zurich already and conceded only one goal in the Bundesliga.

All of the attacking talent that we know and love remains – Arjen Robben, Thomas Müller, Franck Ribery and Mario Gomez – And with the prospect of playing this year’s final in their own stadium should they reach it, Bayern have all the key parts ready for a big push.

Villarreal

Widely regarded as one of the most exciting and attacking teams in Europe, it is something of a surprise that Villarreal have spent 2 seasons away from the Champions League. When in the Europa League last season they did eliminate Bayer Leverkusen before going down only to Porto in the semi – finals.

While the gap between them and the top 2 was shown when Barcelona ran riot against them but you can forgive any team a heavy loss the Nou Camp and two summer signings to bolster the defence in Udinese’s highly rated Cristian Zapata and the presence of the experienced Carlos Marchena could be invaluable in their European adventure.

Away form is a big worry – They managed just 5 La Liga wins on the road last season – But a couple of clean sheets on the road and the Yellow Submarine will fancy their chances of going through, as home form is no problem.

 Manchester City

It’s only 9 years ago that Maine Road was full of City fans blubbing their eyes out in 2001 after going back down at the first attempt so for them to be here just 10 years on is something amazing. City’s steady improvement, bankrolled by the Abu Dhabi United Group, has seen them win the FA Cup and come third in the Premiership last season.

It’s no surprise that many are tipping them to overturn Manchester United and win the Premiership this season and while that may be a touch too soon they can certainly make their mark here with a general feeling they’re at the peak of their powers.

This is a new test for them but they should prove up to it – Their form in the Premier League this season is as of yet unblemished, while their squad runs 3 deep in nearly every position – And whatever happens, it should be great to watch with Mancini having left the handbrake off in terms of their attacking talent.

Napoli

One of the most impressive teams last season, it’s to their credit that only 12 points separated Napoli from the two big Milan teams at the end of the year, and the key elements of that squad, with the nifty addition of Udinese midfielder Gokhan Inler, should present a challenge for many.

Veterans Marco Donadel and Mario Santana have Champions League experience already, while keeping Edison Cavani, Equizel Lavazzei and Marek Hamsik means their ambitions are intact for another season.

The one snag in their plans might be a poor record against big teams – It’s no coincidence that they had only one win over fellow top sides last season in Italy, and failed to win against any one of the top 4. Such failures against these teams will be inexcusable.

VERDICT: The massive spending power of Manchester City, combined with a flying Premier League start which has seen them score 12 goals in just three games, has made them favourites for the Group of death and that’s understandable. Roberto Mancini’s team might still lack a little bit of European pedigree though and Bayern Munich are value to win the Group. New singings have bolstered the defence that leaked too often for many last season and with their impressive attacking force just as good as ever, they’re the value to land the spoils. Villarreal’s away form is a problem, while Napoli struggled against big teams in Serie A last season.

Advice: 3 pts Bayern Munich to win Group A (7/4 Coral)

Group B

Inter Milan

After becoming the first Italian team to win the treble, last season was a big comedown for Inter Milan. Having been transformed from serial domestic champions to Champions League winners by Jose Mourinho, it’s safe to say that Rafa Benitez didn’t do such a brilliant job.

Always distracted by attacks on his Liverpool successor Roy Hodgson, Benitez failed to get more than 12 wins at Inter, suffering from disputes and injuries along with some fairly dubious team selections along the way.

That’s probably not the only reason behind their failures last season – An ageing backline didn’t prove upto it when tested and an overreliance on Wesley Snedijer / Samuel Eto’o probably didn’t help.

The main worry is that not much has changed since to suggest that Inter are a better team. Maicon is vulnerable to a fast winger (as Gareth Bale has shown) while Lucio isn’t the player of old. The exits of Goran Pandev, Samuel Eto’o and Davide Santon are big blows for different reasons. Andrea Poil comes into the squad but he has a lot to prove, and much better additions are Mauro Zarate and Luc Catsignos. On another note, the Brazilian prodigy Coutinho could be much like a new signing having gained crucial experience last season.

The same core talent that took them to the Treble remains and Diego Forlan is a masterful signing, despite the fact he cannot play through the group stages – I rate him just as high as Tevez and the likes of Kun Aguero – but overall they don’t totally convince just yet, and a last 16 berth against any of Napoli, Manchester City, Bayern Munich and Villarreal is a daunting proposition.

 CSKA Moscow

Quarter finalists against Inter 2 years ago, not much has changed as CSKA and second last year, they now lead the Russian Championship (through default as Zenit have been deducted a point) having lost only 2 games this season.

Those who can remember their attacking exploits of two seasons ago will know that they pakc a real punch – A 3-3 draw against Manchester United being the highlight of their Group games, while they gave Inter a scary ride both at home and away before they were knocked out by the winners.

The usual suspects, headed b Wager Love but aided by the useful Zoran Tosic and Seydou Doumbia, should prove a tough nut to crack especially with Igor Akifeev in goal, although a point of concern would be that they’ve struggled against Russia’s best sides – Spartak and Rubin have held them while Zenit were much the better side in a 2-0 win at the Luzhniki Stadium but CKSA should be a tough challenge for anyone this season.

Lille

French Champions for the first time since 1954, with a Coupe de France victory to boot, Lille are moving up in the world with an impressive new stadium also in construction ready for season 2012/13, Lille have every right to be confident of retaining theer title and making a splash in the Champions League.

French teams are generally represented well in the Champions League – Lyon are a fixture, Bordeaux set up an all French Champions League quarter final  and Marsellie made it through last season – And Lille have strong credentials, having fairly blitzed their way to the title last year.

Their crisp brand of attacking football and solid defence (with only 36 against, it was the joint lowest in the League) should see them go head to head with CSKA for the place in the Last 16 this season, but there are some flaws.

Firstly, Adil Remi, Yohan Cayabe and Gervinho have all left, which does leave the team significantly weaker than last year. They have kept Eden Hazard, which is absolutely pivotal, while additions like Benoit Pedretti should tighten them up & Moussa Sow will be a crucial goalscoring force is repeating his form of last season, but Dimitri Payet is not a good replacement for Gervinho and a lack of Champions League experience could prove to be their downfall, but doubts have already been expressed at the club about how far they will go in the competition to protect their French Title.

Trabzonspor

Just about the only Turkish side to benefit from the match – fixing scandal which has rocked the Super Lig, Trabzonspor will be glad just to have their place in Europe sealed, as a qualifier for the Europa League against Athletic Bilbao would have been a tough task despite having done remarkably well to hold on to a goalless draw at San Mames considering that they had had Burak Yilmaz sent off after just six minutes.

Senol Gunes’ squad have suffered major changes this summer as key players Umut Bulut, Jaja Coelho, Selcuk Inan and Hrvoje Cale all left, and while Halil Altintop, Paulo Henrique, Didier Zokora, Adrian Mierzejewski and Ondrej Celustka are all good replacements, certainly good enough to push for another League title, but away trips in Europe will find them out.

VERDICT: Trips to CSKA and Lille should present tough tasks for Inter but this is an easy a group as they could have found and they should win, regardless of who comes second. Some see a state of disarray at the San Siro but that should prove no hindrance as far as this is concerned. The second spot looks like a toss-up between CSKA and Lille, with preference for the Russians as Lille may not fancy the away trips and have lost a few influential players.

Advice: 2 pts Inter (4/6 Coral)

Group C

Manchester United

Winners in 2008, finalists last year and in 2009, along with a Quarter final in-between, Manchester United are building up a really solid resume in the Champions League and it has to be considered that many did not see the United side as a Vintage one last season, despite a relatively smooth passage to the final, so with new additions over the summer and a seemingly superior side, it has to be asked what can be achieved this season.

Going forward United have always had enough to trouble the best of Europe, with Wayne Rooney back to his best and Javier Hernandez waiting in the side-lines, backed up by Nani/Evra/Valencia. Phil Jones and Chris Smalling make for a solid defence although don’t be surprised if experience is the gameplan with Ferdinand/Vidic fit.

Their midfield is a concern for some but Anderson seems a lot happier this season than last, and Tom Cleverly should cope with some of the easier Group games too. With Benfica being their only serious Group opponents, United could be set to go just as far as last year again.

Benfica

Well and truly upended by Andre Villas Boas and Porto last season despite a record-breaking run of eighteen consecutive victories in all competitions, Benfica seem to have avoided the sluggish start that cost them so dear last season, a 3-1 win over Twente boding well for the upcoming campaign.

It’s also been a good transfer window for Benfica, who have added Artur, Ezequiel Garay and Spanish International Joan Capdevila should ensure that the defence is more solid last season, while attacking names such as Oscar Cardozo, Pablo Aimar and Begian startlet Axel Witsel already looks a shrewd acquisition at €8m.

They won’t get past Manchester United home or away but qualification is assured barring a mishap and they could go some way in this year’s competition.

 Basel

Having been unlucky enough to draw Bayern Munich and Roma in their group last year, the same fate has befallen Basel with European giants Benfica and Manchester United in their section of the draw.

Winners of the Swiss League for a second time in just three years under coach Thorsten Fink, while adding the Cup as well, Basel scraped home from a stern challenge from FC Zurich thanks to a comfortable 3-0 win against Luzern in the final game of the season.

Young talent is their game – Samuel Inkoom continues to impress for Ghana while Yann Sommer is viewed as one of Europe’s most promising goalkeepers –but it’s the Europa League for them this season barring a few upsets.

Galati

One of the key beneficiaries of the new Champions Path, invented by Michel Plaltini to allow  smaller nations a decent chance of making the Group stages, surprise Romania League winners Otelul Galati have hit the jackpot but just being here.

According to scout Radu Baicu, they’ve lost a few players and the Champions League might affect their concentration on the League, but in any case, they should be outclassed like Cluj were last season.

VERDICT: An easy group for Manchester United, who can afford to take the gas off. Value seekers will look at Benfica to top the Group but they’re not as good – or crucially as big – as Valencia were to win the Group last season and anyone looking at a value punt should be backing Benfica/United at 13/2 with Boylesports, but for now the suggestion is no bet.

Group D

 Real Madrid

Boyed by the arrival of Jose Mourinho after his treble winning season with Inter, it was a case of so far, so close for Madrid last season when Lionel Messi undid them in the semis, although for some it seemed like a very close contest which would be settled by the odd goal.

The main problem with them as a team is that they don’t seem to have improved in a way that suggest they will beat Barcelona over two legs should they meet them. The nature of the competition could be that they don’t meet them but such is the talent of Pep Guadriola’s side that they can’t be ruled out of going to the semis or better and meeting Madrid again.

The squad is the same - Christiano Ronaldo should again lead the way with another 30+ total, aided by his top class midfield partners of Kaka, Ozil and Di Maria from the wings and midfield – Fabio Coentrao and Nuri Sahin are great too. Their defence is seemingly rock solid but Pepe, Marcelo, Ramos and Carvalho still have a tendency for one challenge too many – Their disciplinary record is a worry.  Whatever happens,

Lyon

Despite being well and truly ousted off the top of Ligue One by Boredeaux, Marsellie and now Lille, Lyon still represent a stern challenge on the European Stage, as shown by a 3-1 win against Rubin Kazan at the Stade Gerland, followed by a rallying 1-1 draw in Russia.

Despite their absence from the top table it seems as if Lyon are always the best French side in the competition and the same should ring true this season. Lisandro Lopez and Bafetimbi Gomis have made storming starts to the season, while Jimmy Briand too has the capability to get his name on the scoresheet at any time.

A midfield containing Kim Kallstrom, Michel Bastos, Ederson, Miralem Pjanić, Jérémy Pied and, of course, Yohann Gourcuff should hold it’s own more than enough to get through the last 16.

 Ajax

Having been usurped by Twente two seasons ago, last season represented a triumph for Ajax in regaining their title thanks to a finishing run of six successive league wins and 14 in their last 19 games which few predicted.

Frank De Boer has added reinforcements to his squad thanks to the coup of the 2010/11 player of the season, Theo Janssen from rivals FC Twente, along with Kolbeinn Sigþórsson from AZ, who last season bagged 15 goals in 32 league games.

This makes them favourite for the League title but Madrid and Milan got the better of them last season and it’s not impossible that Lyon could take the second spot at their expense this time around, if they bring their best form to Europe.

Dinamo Zagreb

The dominant force in Croatian football with 13 titles - 6 of them in a row – to add to 11 Croatian Cups, Dinamo Zagreb looked better than ever when running away with the title last season and they should prove a tough nut to crack at home, as Malmo found out to their cost in the Qualifiers.

The masterful Sammir – Who effectively put Malmo through with 2 goals on his 50^th European start for the club – should prove a source of inspiration but they have been put in an extremely tough group however  with trips to the Bernabeu, Amsterdam and the Stade Gerland, and they failed to get out of their Europa League Group last season, which doesn’t bode well here.

VERDICT: An extremely strong group but nothing to stop Real Madrid here, making it a race for second which Lyon may edge from Ajax so instead of taking the 8/15 that they qualify, the evens for a straight forecast offers a better option. The Dutch champions are showing better form but there’s a suspicion that Lyon have yet to hit their best stride and they may boast more strength in depth than Ajax. Zagreb are likely to present a challenge at home but have frailties when travelling to top European sides.

Advice: 2 pts Real Madrid/Lyon Straight Forecast (evens Boylesports)

Group E

Chelsea

All eyes are on Andre Villas Boas to try and accomplish what Mourinho didn’t at Chelsea – Win the Champions League. The main snag in the plan might be, for the first time in several years, whether his side is good enough.

The experience of players like Lampard, Terry and Drogba (once recovered from a nasty concussion) is invaluable although some would argue they’ve had their chance to win the completion, albeit without much luck.

Little separated them and Manchester United last year – Remember the penalty shout that they had turned down at the end of the first leg – but United were the much better team over the two legs and there’s a suspicion they’ve moved on more despite the addition of Juan Mata and the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid would most likely be made favourites. Chelsea should still go a long way in this year’s tournament when all is said and done, but it remains to be seen what for they bring to the latter stages.

Valencia

Another season gone, another star leaves, yet still Valencia cope with ease every and are easily the only side within a mile of the big two in Spain every season. The spending of Athletico Madrid & Malaga has seen many doubt Los Che but a good quad still remains at the Mestalla and it would be no surprise to see them make an impression this year.

The sales of Davids Villa and Silva, Joaquín & Juan Mata are have been almost offset by the additions of Dani Parejo and Sergío Canales in the midfield, Pablo Piatti on the wing and Adil Rami in defence, while the rest of the squad is well upto Europan standard.

Chelsea are expected to top the Group but given their two excellent performances against Manchester United – One when they should have won at the Mestalla, and then when drawing 1-1 at Old Trafford – Show they have nothing to fear and Emry’s men will be tough for all to handle.

Bayer Leverkusen

Despite a solid last three years this is Leverkusen’s first first foray into Champions League football since 2005. Runners up to the superb Borussia Dortmund last season, everkusen were eliminated by Villarreal in the Round of 16 in last season’s Europa League but were undefeated going into the match and went down to a top class side.

First team names like Andre Schürrle, Simon Rolfes, Lars Bender, Michael Ballack, Ömer Toprak, Renato Augusto and Rene Adler ensure they have the quality needed o hold their own, but the draw could have been kinder than Chelsea and Valencia With the German side generally very stable, they’re expected to be a feature at this level for sometime, although whether they can get through is a different matter.

Genk

Courtesy of a dramatic penalty shoot-out win over Maccabi Haifa Genk are in the Group stages after 11 years and should enjoy the ride but it’s likely that will be all they’re doing after drawing Chelsea, Valencia and Leverkusen.

Unlucky to be paired with eventual winners Porto at the beginning of their Europa League campaign last season, Genk went on an impressive 19 game unbeaten streak and beat fellow title contenders Standard Liege in the playoffs, winning the Belgian championship only for the third their time in club history. While they deserve their place here, they may be outclassed though.

VERDICT: Chelsea have an outstanding pedigree in this competition which explains why they are 3/10 to win this Group but there’s no value in that price and Valencia make all the appeal based on odds. While a price of 7/2 for them to top the group isn’t great, it’s fair considering Chelsea might not present the test that Manchester United did for them last year and at 9/2, the Valencia/Chelsea forecast too makes appeal based on Value grounds.

Advice: 1 pt Valencia/Chelsea Straight Forecast (9/2 Boylesports)

Group F

Arsenal

So often one of the best teams to watch in Europe, Arsenal haven’t translated that form to the Champions League since going all the way to the final in 2006 and losing to Barcelona. Near misses since include and agonising loss to Liverpool while Manchester United were always on their way to Rome.

The man problem is that Arsenal don’t seem to have the defence for away games in Europe. They’ve been desperately unlucky to have to play Barcelona the last twice but such is the nature of this competition that you will meet the elite sooner or later and it’s that area which casts doubt again in tough qualifying group.

The signs are that this season could be one of the toughest in a long while for Arsenal. The departures of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri were massive blows but the injury to Jack Whishere is even more crucial in their absence, with Emmanuel Frimpong raw and Alex Song playing poorly. New additions like Per Merteasacker should boost the defence with Dos Santos giving much needed cover at Left back. Despite panic shopping for players Wenger has done well in getting Yossi Benayoun and Mikael Arteta but they need to gel quickly and the same flaws remain in a tough group.

Marseille

French runners up Marsellie have made a shaky start to their season, which isn’t surprising given that they play four of the top six in the opening six weeks of the season. A 3-2 defeat to Champions Lille shows there’s plenty of life left in the 2009/10 Ligue 1 winners.

Many Marseille figures past and present have been queuing up for a pop at new big spenders PSG but their own transfer business has been shrewd by anyone’s standards.

The additions of Alou Diarra (for a bargain €5m from Bordeaux), the talented young defender Nicolas Nkoulou and the Lorient pair of Jeremy Morel and Morgan Amalfitano are all good singing, while Mathieu Vabuena provides an attacking edge. At the Stade Velodrome, Marseliie will prove tough for anyone, but on the road is where their fate will be decided.

Olympiakos

Runners up 2 years ago thanks to Arsenal deciding to play a youth team having qualified for the Group stages, Olympiakos were empathic in landing the title by 13 points last season but face a struggle to qualify here according to bookmakers.

That may be premature based on their title winning but the feeling is that the top and second is likely to go to Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund and looking away from Favid Fuster and Kevin Mirallas, goals are a worry. Olof Mellberg and Albert Riera bring Premier League experience but there’s a feeling that this group is too deep for them and it’s likely that their European adventure will end here.

Borussuia Dortmund

One of the most exciting tams in Europe, Borussia Dortmund have made a solid start to title defence and should prove one of the most exciting teams in their year’s tournament. Title winners by 8 points last season, the most exciting thing about them is that they’ve retained most of the team that led them to that title.

That’s why it is so disappointing that Nuri Sahin has left to Real Madrid –Understandably though given his ambitions –but have retained Shinji Kagawa, Mario Götze and their manager, the supremely humble and focused Jürgen Klopp.

The outstanding Gotze, who, has already attracted the interest of Real Madrid, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United, scored 6, and assisted 15 goals last season, Is the mainpoint of a terrific attacking unit who will fancy their chances against Arsenal on Matchday 1 and should fear nobody, which makes them slight favourites given the shaky starts that Arsenal have made to their season.

VERDICT: Much revolves around what form Arsenal bring after a horrid start to the season, although If their new signings gel then they’ll be a force to be reckoned with again. German Champions Borussia Dortmund are the most likely winners at this time of writing, but it can all change rapidly through the coming weeks and the advice is no bet.

Group G

Porto

You could arguably call Porto the luckiest team in European football. To not only have Jose Mourinho but then to have Andre Villas Boas win multiple trophies must be brilliant for Porto and new coach Victor Pereira should also expect to enjoy plenty of success.

In Hulk, Falcao, Varela, James Rodriguez and Kleber, Porto have quality and quantity to spearhead their attacking challenge. In Hulk, Varela, James Rodriguez and Kleber, Porto have quality and quantity to spearhead their challenge for another Portuguese Title and they’ll be one of the hardest teams to beat in Europe as well.

Their Europa League victory showed everything good about them, with wins far and wide including away at CKSA Moscow, which shows that trips to Ukraine and Russia hold no fears for them, and their starling scoring streak should see them go through as Group winners.

Shakhtar

Winners of the Ukrainians League by 8 points last season, Shakhtar were unlucky to run into Barcelona at the quarter final stage last season, having previously beaten Roma last year with a degree of authority in the last 16.

They’ve strengthened over the summer, having added Ideye Brown, a Nigerian striker who netted 15 times for Sochaux in Ligue 1 last season, along with midfielder Lakman Haruna. He returning Senegalese centre-back Pape Diakhaté should also boost a side who will fancy themselves to take points off all at home.

Away trips to Zenit St Petersurg and Porto will be where their fate is decided – Remember that they lost 5-1 at the Emirates before beating Arsenal last season  - but they should prove tough opponents in any case.

Zenit

Backed by Russian Energy Giants Gazprom and driven by coach Luciano Spalletti, Zenit landed a superb double last season, losing just 2 games all season in the League but going out to Twente in the Europa League.

They’ve kept up much the same form this year despite the long-term knee injury to Vladimir Bystrov causing some headaches – This means that he has a weakness at left-back – But they Russian Champions will be looking to go through at this stage with the strongest team in their League.

Their home form – Much like all the sides in this group – Will prove a solid base and it’s how they do on their travels that will really count, but they’re going to be a threat to all in their quest for qualification.

 APOEL

After a deserved win in the second leg of their Qualifying tie against Wisla Krakow – They were the best side in Poland and much more so in Cyprus – And the fitness gained from that, along with a poor goalkeeping display from Wisla, proved crucial to a 3-1 turnaround at home.

Their efforts have been rewarded with a very tough group though and a lack of competitive football which nearly cost them so dear against Krakwow is likely to leave them badly exposed in such a group and heavy defeats could be on the way.

VERDICT: One of the toughest groups of the whole tournament but an outstanding favourite in Porto, for whom Eastern European trips hold no fear following an outstanding Europa League win. Few teams have been as dominant in winning the second tier of European completion and that dominance can carry - over into the Champions League with only one major withdrawal, that of Falcao. The race between Zenit and Shakhtar for second is too close to call.

Advice: 2 pts Porto (11/10 general) 

Group H

Barcelona

The dominant force in world club football after a superb rout of Manchester United in last season’s final, Barcelona are actually stronger for having added Cesc Fabregas and Alexis Sanchez, both of whom can pressure and act as replacements for Xavi/Iniesta and Pedro respectively.

Their only injury worries this season could be to defenders Gerard Pique and Carlos Puyol, although Eric Abidal and Javier Macherano can deputise for them as has been shown this season. With Europe’s master Lionel Messi ably backed up by David Villa, the question is, who can stop them?

A relatively easy group, AC Milan apart, Barcelona remain untroubled by this section and should canter home before aiming to defend their title.

AC Milan

Title winners thanks to their superb defence combined with a forward trio of Ibrahimovic, Cassano, and Robinho, AC Milan will count themselves unlucky to not have scored against Tottenham but a dire first leg lost it for them, despite many chances being missed at White Hart Lane in the second half.

You can be assured that this season they will play different, and it may finally be that the balance between attack and defence is finally going to be just right for Milan this season – Although wether that’s enough to get past English opposition remains to be seen.

Despite being in the same section as Barcelona, qualification seems assured and it’s all about the last 16 for Allegri’s men, with an onus on being able to win home ties. 

BATE

Belarusian Champions Bate will be looking to star man Pavel Nekhaychik – an integral part of BATE squad that took on Real Madrid, Juventus and Zenit in the 2008 group stages –To provide some inspiration against three top class opponents but despite being third seeds it’s likely they won’t be advancing given the presence of the impressive Viktoria Plzen, who had the harder qualifying task.

While a 2-0 win in Austria must be commended – They were underdogs for the second leg – It might be a case of just enjoying the ride.

 Plzen

One of the most impressive qualifiers, beating last season’s previous Last 16 contenders Copenhagen, Plzen will have been disappointed to draw a Group which contains AC and Barcelona –They would have fancied their chances against anyone else.

Their attacking style, headed by rising star Vaclav Pilar – Able to play anywhere in an attacking three, while having earned his first Czech cap this summer – Should see them beat BATE at home, but counter attacking won’t work against AC Milan.

VERDICT: What would have been nothing more than a Barcelona walkover with the rest fighting for the scraps had it not been for the arrival of AC Milan, which gives us a cracking couple of games to get excited about. There’s no real value to be found apart from special betting, as the likes of Milan and Barca should rack up a good total which makes “group of most goals” likely.