Rugby World Cup 2011 - Saturday 17th September

Argentina (1/14) v Romania (14/1)

Argentina will have felt hard done by not to beat England in their opening game after leading for a long way, before eventually going down to just a bit of pace thanks to Ben Youngs and also indiscipline late on.

The Pumas are feeling that match - centre Gonzalo Tiesi has been ruled out of the World Cup following a knee injury, while their key man Felipe Contepomi will miss this match after suffering a rib injury, and both are big blows.

Argentina must work on their goal-kicking too, with only three kicks from 9 attempts being landed and conditions (see later) are not likely to be helpful to kicks being landed this morning, with Romania’s Marin Dumbrava also missing two key penalties to drive home his side's advantage against Scotland.

Romania surprised many (me included) and defied thoughts they were in decline when pushing Scotland all the way in their opener when coming within 10 minutes of pulling off one of the greatest upsets in the history of the World Cup.

After a poor start by the Oaks, once they started to get at their forwards, they really got at Scotland after a shambolic early start – They were down 15-3 at one stage – and their forward pressure is likely to give Argentina quite a few problems.

The handicap gives Romania a 21 point starts, which makes far more appeal for them than it does for Argentina – The Pumas have key men out and conditions don’t look helpful for points scoring with possible showers and wind – And while Argentina are likely to go for a strong side, the same was true of Scotland and they nearly capitulated. Both teams would have to be rated pretty much equal ion recent form while the last meeting between the two was a 13-9 win to Scotland.

A franchise defeat to the Argentina Kings which sees eight of the 15 players retain their place suggests that there’s a fair gap between the two teams and with conditions tempering enthusiasm for a wide margin win which sees the vote go to Romania for a 10 point start on the first half handicap – It would have seen Chile and Uruguay come home ahead and while the first against Argentina’s B side wasn’t hopeful, their opening WC performance  suggest that with weather in hand, they can hold out for 40 minutes.

Advice: 1 pt Romania +10 on 1^st half handicap (10/11 Totesport)

South Africa (1/14) v Fiji (12)

After being given an almighty scare by Wales in their tournament opener last Sunday, a point spread of 22 points makes little or no appeal for South Africa against a Fiji side that while loose in defence against Namibia – Namibia scored only 30 in their whole campaign last time around – showed plenty of attacking intention and verve.

While the Springboks pride themselves on being physical, the Fijians can match this - - as shown in the two teams' last meeting four years ago in their quarter-final clash where South Africa were made to sweat for their 37-20 win – And it’s hard not to think the gap hasn’t stretched too much since, certainly not enough to make the game a done deal.

Some say that South Africa are in decline hut their 815 caps probably saw them to a win against Wales by the skin of their teeth – And now they must go into this match without  lock Victor Matfield (hamstring), centre Jean de Villiers (rib cartilage) and wing Bryan Habana (knee).

Crucial enforcer Bakkies Botha is unlikely to last the distance having just recovered from an Achilles problem, adding to the problem that replacement lock Johann Muller is also out. South Africa are likely to try and keep it tight, have plenty of the ball, hit hard at the set pieces and stop Fiji playing properly.

Should Fiji get the ball however, Vereniki Goneva (who scored four times against Namibia) Gaby Lovobalavu and Seremaia Bai are all likely to be finishing fast in what is an expansive side and this points to not only a high scoring, but close match and a winning margin of 1-12 points for South Africa should not be 11/2.

Advice: 2 pts South Africa to win by 1-12 points (11/2 William Hill)

Australia (1/5) v Ireland (11/2)

After a struggling win over the USA in torrid conditions, Ireland face what could be a Pool C decider against Tri Nations winners Australia, who will be very happy with their opening performance when beating Italy 32-6.

Australia were held through the first half but once getting away from Italy, looked very inch a World Cup winner in waiting when scoring 4 tries in just one second half burst of 15 minutes. Ireland had to work rather harder and work all the way to beat the USA but not for a lack of opportunities, with a wet ball leading to 4 handling errors.

What they won’t want a repeat of is the 15 turnovers conceded – Quick ball is lethal to conceded to a side that contains James O’Connor, Will Genia and Quade Cooper – And much more for the likes of Brian O’Driscoll, Johnny Sexton and Sean O’Brien to step up to the plate. If they do, we have a proper contest.

Many of the meetings between the two have been close  - Australia and Ireland have clashed four times at the World Cup and that twice the Wallabies prevailed by a point – But this affair might be more clear cut, thanks to the Wallabies’ second half bursts of late.

 At Eden Park they outscored New Zealand 14-13 in the second half of their Tri-Nations encounter having lost the first half 17-0. A week later, in Durban against the Springboks, they trailed 6-0 at half-time before outscoring their hosts 14-3 in the second half, and against Italy they were level at half time before putting 26 points on the board. Australia will be ready to pounce on any errors Ireland make late on and can win the second half by more than 7 points if their backs are firing.

Advice: 2 pts Australia -6 on 2^nd half handicap (5/6 Betfred)