Rugby World Cup 2011- New Zealand v Tonga

Many have felt that New Zealand’s second World Cup win is long overdue and their first match against Tonga should tell us something about whether they will finally confirm their tag as tournament favourites to open what could be a brilliant World Cup.

The Satus Quo is just like every other tournament – New Zealand are the world’s top ranked team, have the best quad, and are heavy odds on favourites. I’ve already discussed why I won’t be putting them up at that sort of price in a tournament but it’s not hard to see why they won’t be

For the first time in many years New Zealand come into an International test of the back of 2 defeats, which has seen them lose the Tri Nations to Australia. Home turf should see them canter to victory against Tonga, but a handicap of 64 points isn’t of any interest.

Tonga covered the handicap start in all of their Pool games at the last World Cup and had their most successful World Cup yet in 2007 with two wins over the USA and Samoa last time, while pushing the likes of England and South Africa hard.

It would be no surprise to see New Zealand romp home like they did against Tonga in 2003 (91-7) but Tonga have improved since then and a powerful front row is just the kind of challenge which has stopped the All Blacks in recent times at World Cups.

I’m in no way suggesting that Tonga can pull off a shock of epic proportions, just that the 61 point handicap might prove uncomfortable against a fired up team of their nature – The Tongans are tanked just 12^th in the World but were convincing winners against Fiji last time out and will be supported by a very large Polynesian community on Friday.

Instead, the bet maybe to go high on match points at 78.5 – If the Tongans can get some points on the board then it will bring out the best in New Zeland while Graham Henry’s side love to hand out a thrashing, so should they rack up a cricket score it’s only going to be in our favour.

New Zealand’s average points score per group game was 77.25 alone in 2007 while 79 points is the average haul for New Zealand against Tonga based on the limited evidence of three meetings (and the average points difference between them is 74 points), so we seem to have a pretty solid chance.

While that rates a solid wager, it may also be worth backing the second half to produce the most points, which has been the case in 3 of the All Black’s last 5 matches, while the match average at the 2007 World Cup saw 28.3 out of 51.6 (which leaves 23.4 left over) points scored in the second half compared to the first.

Advice

1 pt 79 or more points in match (5/6 Skybet)

1 pt Second half to have most points (4/5 Skybet)