Japan are out to end a 20 year winless streak at this the World
Cup against Canada – A side which they have a decent record against – In Napier
tomorrow morning. It’s rather apt that the closest Japan have come in the 17
intervening games was a draw against none other than Canada in Bordeaux four
years ago, and they have won their most recent clashes in convincing fashion.
That was in 2009, and a fair bit has changed since, with
Canada now being ranked higher than Japan on the IRB rankings, and the Canucks
have looked the better side at this World Cup. A line through France, who beat Canada
19-46 & Tonga 47-21, has them as equals, but Japan’s worryingly error
strewn defeat against Tonga, during which they made 14 handling errors and conceded
20 turnovers sees them as 6 point underdogs (7 with Coral).
It’s not impossible that Japan could really show up at their
best here, although it’s very hard to see them getting the better of a Canadian
pack that managed to make Tonga concede several errors – Pushing over a pack
which did keep New Zealand down to just 10 second half points is no mean feat
at all – and the Brave Blossoms will need to be on their game, especially
against the breakdown.
Bet 365 offer 2/1 about Canada winning both halves, which is
very interesting, but the strong starts made by the Canucks at this World Cup
(going in only 9 points down to France, and leading Tonga by 3 points), make
the half time handicap a tempting option at just -2.5 points – They have
trailed at the break in their last 4 matches.
Moving on swiftly, Italy then play the USA in what’s a
crucial clash for the Azzuri – A bonus point is a necessity if they are to have
any chance of qualifying, and that’s without them beating Ireland.
They currently lie third in the Pool with five points, five
behind the Wallabies, and today’s game in hand over their rivals. A convincing
bonus-point win would put them level on points with Australia ahead of their
final clash with Ireland - in which a win would see the Italians progress to
the quarter finals, probably at the expense of the Irish.
Both teams changed almost their entire XV’s for games against
Russia and Australia, so both sides are all full strength – Which should make
for a fascinating game. Against Ireland, the USA had to give up 70 per cent of
the territory and still only let in 22 points (rain helped) while Todd Clever
made 15, Louis Stanfill made 14 and Shawn Pitman made 13 tackles against the
men in green.
Italy showed lots of pace against Russia with a far inferior
team than this but will take to be careful to cover themselves given their USA’s
wing pace, and getting through the USA’s defence won’t be easy by any stretch
for them, so a -20 point handicap should give some hairy moments and that might
be best split in favour of the first half deficit of 11 – The USA have trailed
in 3 of their last 5 but much more notable is Italy’s strong presence before
the break – 38 of their 53 points came before half time against Russia.
Advice
1 pt Canada -2.5 on 1st half handicap v Japan
(4/5 Bet365)
1 pt Italy -10.5 on first half handicap (5/6 Betfred)
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