After a fairly docile week judging by the standards of this
Rugby World Cup, things really move up a gear with the conclusion of the pool
stages. As things stand, we have the tempting proposition of a draw which is
split into Southern and Northern Hemispheres following Ireland’s win over
Australia. Not too much should be able to change in terms of Group winners and
runners up, although anything’s possible in what’s essentially knockout Rugby.
Australia (1/5000) v
Russia (200)
The action starts with Australia taking on Russia in what
should be a warm up for a hard hitting Semi – final against South Africa, if
all goes to plan. The Wallabies defeat to Ireland is still possibly a
contentious bone to pick for the side but they bounced back in typical style
with a 65 – 7 rout of a second string USA side.
The Wallabies ran in 11 tries in their 67-5 rout of the
Eagles and they should run riot again here despite some team changes in
response to costly injuries - Back-rower Wycliff Palu has already been forced
to return home with a hamstring injury while Rob Horne (fractured cheekbone),
Anthony Faingaa (concussion), Pat McCabe (dislocated shoulder) and Kurtley
Beale (hamstring strain) and Digby Ioane (fractured thumb) are all out –
Massive blows in terms of a long term challenge.
This moves number eight Radike Samo onto the wing, while blindside
flanker Scott Higginbotham gets his first chance of the World Cup at blindside
Flanker. Quade Cooper – Who’s still getting stick for his performance against
Ireland and didn’t prove much against the USA, for all he was a creative force
to be reckoned with – is one of only 2 (the other being Drew Mitchell) to remain
from the three-quarter line selected against the USA.
Russia, who have impressed with their spirit and enterprise
– They’ve been the only second tier nation to regularly threaten their
opponents tryline – have gained many fans thanks to their attacking exploits
and will be trying to go out with a bang, although this on paper is their
hardest test of the tournament, having faced a second string Ireland team that
ran up a total of 62 points. The same should happen again for them and
Australia might be worth backing on the second half handicap, with points or
tries betting set at extremely high lines.
Advice: 1 pt Australia -37.5 on second half handicap (5/6
Betfred)
France (1/66) v Tonga
(22)
The pressure on France’s Marc Liveremont is growing after he
dropped fly-half François Trinh-Duc and any sort of win against Tonga will do
ahead of a possible match up with England. They were thrashed by the All Blacks
but there’s not much point reading into that game. After a very strong opening
9 minutes France were cut open but assuming they win this game then their route
doesn’t involved the All Blacks and while neither team gave their all, there’s
a feeling France put in a shocker. Plenty of missed tackles in defence was
aided by the 9-10 paring of Parra and Mermoz, while after that, their heads
dropped. While there are a lot of problems, better is yet to come from the
French.
The small matter of Tonga is not be taken lightly though. Lievremont
has decided to once again go with Parra alongside Yachvili in the half-backs,
with Medard at fullback and Alexis Palisson on the left wing. In the pack,
William Servat returns at hooker in place of Dimitri Szarzewski, a wise move
based on his poor effort against the All Blacks.
Tonga have been just as erratic – A superb second half
effort against New Zealand was followed by a poor effort against Canada,
meaning they need a bonus point win to go through tonight. If France don’t
show, they really don’t show but they should have too much for the Islanders.
That said, they’ve been unconvincing so far and are unlikely
to cover a 25 point handicap if they struggle early on, which is possible –
Late tries have been a fixture with Les Bleus so far.
Advice: 2 pts Tonga +26 (10/11 general)
England (1/5) v
Scotland (11/2)
Rarely have the Auld Enemy had so much to fight for. Following
'30 seconds of madness’ according to Andy Robinson after their narrow defeat by
Argentina, a game in which they played running rugby under filthy conditions and
lost thanks to one mistake in defence, having played very well for 70 minutes.
As harsh as the defeat was on Scotland, it leaves them all
but out of the competition. Should England get two match points (essentially win)
they will go through, while Scotland need to deny England the bonus point while also
winning by 8 points or more, something they haven’t done since 1986.
It’s not impossible to envisage defeat for the odds on favourites
– England haven’t won any of their last three away from Twickenham against the
Scotland, while they’ve been kept tryless in two of their last three at
Twickenham.
Ireland were in a similar situation against Australia and
managed to win – Although Scotland’s team suggests that they’ll be moving to a
running game which might not be their typical style – and England do look
worthy favourites, if not worthy of being 1/6 to beat a team who they’ve only
won against at home since 2005.
The Red roses have been fairly impressive after a grinding
win against Argentina, running 6 tries past Georgia (easier said than done) while
dismissing Romania’s second XV as they should have done. Both time they’ve
looked dynamic with ball in hand and have scored plenty of tries, so the backs
will be constant threat should England decide to run the ball.
That’s easier said than done though and this could be a very
tight kickfest – As England’s game against Argentina was. Both teams will try
to win the ball too much to make the 14’s about No Tryscorer appeal, while
under 41 points could go far (it’s generally 5/6).
There’s more value in England to edge this clash though, and
a win by 1-12 points is 13/8 with Stan James, which could be value in a tight
game that both sides will want to win an way possible. Another bet which caught
the eye was the time of the first try – You can get 5/6 with Bet365 that it’s
after 17:30 on the clock, which makes appeal given it took until the 67th
minute for the first try to arrive in the last meeting between the two.
Advice: 2 pts England to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Stan
James)
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