Fiji (3) v Samoa
(4/11)
It’s crunch time now at the Rugby World Cup with many games
being crucially important to every team for one reason or another and after
defeats to group favourites South Africa and Wales respectively, Fiji and Samoa
can only accept victory in Auckland tomorrow morning.
After coming through Namibia with ease, albeit letting their
defence slip against the Welwitschas – 25 points is the biggest total Namibia
have scored at a tournament – Fiji were taught a lesson by a fitter and more experienced
South Africa side who had far more experience.
They were also beaten the last time these two met but it’s
important that Samoa might not have been at full strength for that clash and
they probably carry the better form thanks a stunning win against Australia
that grabbed attention from all quarters despite the Wallabies being understrength.
Since then Samoa have put away Nambia and were leading
against Wales before they turned it around – Indeed it’s been more than well
publicised that they feel that they would have done so had the game not come
just four days after their meeting with Namibia in Rotorua, with their controversial
centre Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu likening the schedule for second-tier sides at
the Rugby World Cup to the holocaust and apartheid – Remarkably he wasn’t punished.
You can tell how close the two teams are when you find out in
their last ten meetings only once has the away side on the day come away with the
win. It’ll be natural tomorrow however, which might see class out and Samoa
come away with the win, by a fairly tight 1-12 points.
Advice: 2 pts Samoa to win by 1-12 points (15/8 Ladbrokes)
Ireland (1/2000) v
Russia (80)
After their stirring upset win over Australia in Auckland
last weekend, Ireland have opened up the draw between the Southern and Northern
Hemisphere and some are touting a side which had plummeted to eighth in the IRB
World Rankings after losing all four of their warm-up games as potential
winners.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Ireland could
go on a run to the final – When they are as pumped up as they are against the
Wallabies is take a hell of a side to get through them – although for now
Declan Kidney will just want them not to mess up the pool stages.
Russia are likely to present no problems – A second string
Italy side just ran through them for fun just 5 days ago, and eight changes
have been made to the side which lost to Italy – although I wouldn’t be going
mad for the Irish on the handicap.
The men in Green, like the Russians, have made eight changes
for this match and enjoy playing through the phases before overpowering teams
at the line – Their scrum should have a field day especially while the lineout
too is a source of worry for the Bears, but a start of 52 points will take some
overcoming, especially if there are showers and wind at Roturua.
Advice: 1 pt Russia +52 (evs Paddy Power)
Argentina (8/11) v
Scotland (13/10)
The big clash of the day’s action sees Scotland take on
Argentina in what is a must win clash for each side – Should Argentina lose
they will drop out of the World Cup while defeat means Scotland would have to
beat England to qualify.
Argentina had England in a lot of trouble for most of the
game before a late try from Ben Young ensured that they wouldn’t get anything
from the game, and while they had plenty to offer against Romania, they offered
very little in defence and it doesn’t help that against top level sides,
Argentina average no more than 15 points a game.
The pumas goal kicking has also been poor this tournament,
missing 10 kicks at goal in their two matches so far, while a head to head
history shows that Scotland have beaten Argentina in three of their last four
meetings, all of which were in South America.
A massive boost for Argentina is the fact that Felipe has
been pronounced fit, although he last played centre for the Pumas in November
2008 – But with fly-half Santiago Fernández and Marcelo Bosch, their team does
look to have some creativity about it at the least.
Andy Robinson has very much selected a team for the job - the
"running option" of Ruaridh Jackson at fly-half has seen Dan Parks drop
to the bench – while Rory Lawson has a 100% win rate as Captain while other chances
include a recall for Scotland's most-capped player, Chris Paterson, at
full-back.
This suggests that Scotland could very well try not to play
a kicking only game and run the ball which is potentially wise although
interesting given that they’ve scored 20 tries in 22 matches. A poor weather
forecast too, of showers with wind, is likely to make going for tries tricky,
as well as kicking too in the end.
You go can under 38 to under 32 points which is worth a look
if you don’t fancy anything, but the value here lies with Scotland by 1-12
points, with a saver on no tryscorer at 14/1 looking like value, although going
under on the points does look a good option too.
Advice: 2 pts Scotland to win by 1-12 points (2/1 Betfred),
1 pt No Tryscorer (14/1 Betfred)
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