Saturday, 10 September 2011

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Sunday 11th September


Australia (1/25) v Italy (25)

With Ireland in a state of recent disarray the mood in the Italian camp could be one of confidence as they go into this World Cup an established side with a more than manageable pool, the obvious hiccups being today’s opponents and Tri Nations winners Australia.

Italy gained the wooden spoon in the Six Nations but arguably were unlucky to do so – A Ronan O’Gara drop goal saw Ireland escape Rome with a barely deserved win – while a win against France (albeit an outfit in disarray that weekend) was one of their finest moments in recent history.

The Azzuri will need to up their game to qualify here based on recent results - – beating Japan and losing to Scotland –  but they’ve got more potential than of late of should be looking to make the Quarter finals here.

A remarkable first half in Brisbane two weeks ago saw Australia carve up New Zealand's best and gain a Tri-Nations title - their first in a decade – which has boosted hopes of a third World Cup win. With Will Genia and Quade Cooper providing the ammunition for the likes of Kurtley Beale and Digby Ioane their back line could be the best in the World and this match should be plain sailing with The Wallabies unbeaten in all their 13 previous encounters against the Azzuri.

A handicap of 28 points is more than reasonable (The Azzuiri have beaten that mark in the last 5 meeting but not in this situation) – But the Wallabies have won the second half in 4 of their last 5 Tests and a handicap of 15 points in the second half is fair.

Advice: 2 pts Australia -15 on 2nd Half Handicap (evs Betfred)

Ireland (1/41) v USA (50)

Ireland have been in terrible form of late and now occupy their lowest rankings spot for some time off the back of their 20-9 loss to England in Dublin - Ireland's fourth in their RWC 2011 warm-up matches, having lost to Scotland and France (twice) home and away –And face a tricky pool with Australia and Italy looking to push them out at the Pool stage again.

Ireland didn’t start well 4 years ago (when in better shape) – Scrapping to a 31-17 win over Nambia before nearly being turned over by Georgia 14-10 – And will be desperate to win here.

While the USA get a shot a  potentially below par Ireland, their form isn’t much to shout about - losses to Japan, Canada, (twice), Tonga and Georgia – indicate that they’re not in great shape, but their World Cup performance in France was very encouraging.

In Paris they pushed England, Tonga and Samoa very close, covering the handicap on all three occasions and Coach Eddie O’Sullivan will name their strongest side which should include Chris Wyles, James Patterson, and Zimbabwe born Taku Negwenya, scorer of 8 tries in just 19 International, including the try of the Tournament in France.

The handicap underdogs have had a good start in the tournament and the USA may be worth backing with a 35 point start for interest, while Ireland to win by 1-12 points shouldn’t be as big as 9’s – Any win will do for Declan Kidney’s men.

Advice: 1 pt USA +35 (10/11 Boylesports) 1 pt Ireland to win by 1 – 12 (9/1 general)


South Africa (1/5) v Wales (11/2)

A delicious tie.  World Champions South Africa have been written off by many owing to some poor form since – While others have tried to downgrade their 2007 triumph due to them not facing either New Zealand or Australia during their campaign.

A poor Tri Nations which saw them lose 3 games (failing to cover a single handicap in the process) has seen many look at an ageing side and doubt their credentials for this tournament but with as many as 20 players rested for all their matches but New Zealand – Which they won 18-5 against a second string side – It’s fair to say that’s not an accurate reflection of their talents.

The Enigmatic Peter De Villers has seen the light and gone for experience, meaning the team is the most experienced XV to ever represent South Africa, with a combined caps total of 815 - surpassing the 810 caps of the team that played Australia in Durban in August. That includes 11 players who were part of the 2007 World Cup winning squad, which makes the Springboks a tempting proposition.

Wales come here having beaten England and Argentina but there’s a suspicion that both sides weren’t firing at the Millenium Stadium and South Africa at a neutral venue will be a huge test for Gatland’s side.

With Stephen Jones ruled out by a calf injury, Sam Priestland, a man with only four Test appearances (and two starts) to his name, one of which was at full-back, will deputise and the Springboks, short of Bakkies Botha to play the enforcer role, will target him.

South Africa were tempting to cover a 14 point handicap (7 either half) – but the last 2 meetings have seen only 3 points between the two at the end. However, 9 of the last 12 meetings between these two have seen 41 or more points, which has to be worth a proper punt at 5/6 across the board. South Africa’s scoring has improved of late while Wales won’t lie down without a fight, and both teams have plenty of tries in them thanks to Bryan Habana and George North.


Advice: 4 pts 42 or more points (5/6 general) 

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