Australia (1/25) v
Italy (25)
With Ireland in a state of recent disarray the mood in the
Italian camp could be one of confidence as they go into this World Cup an
established side with a more than manageable pool, the obvious hiccups being
today’s opponents and Tri Nations winners Australia.
Italy gained the wooden spoon in the Six Nations but arguably
were unlucky to do so – A Ronan O’Gara drop goal saw Ireland escape Rome with a
barely deserved win – while a win against France (albeit an outfit in disarray
that weekend) was one of their finest moments in recent history.
The Azzuri will need to up their game to qualify here based
on recent results - – beating Japan and losing to Scotland – but they’ve got more potential than of late of
should be looking to make the Quarter finals here.
A remarkable first half in Brisbane two weeks ago saw
Australia carve up New Zealand's best and gain a Tri-Nations title - their
first in a decade – which has boosted hopes of a third World Cup win. With Will
Genia and Quade Cooper providing the ammunition for the likes of Kurtley Beale
and Digby Ioane their back line could be the best in the World and this match
should be plain sailing with The Wallabies unbeaten in all their 13 previous
encounters against the Azzuri.
A handicap of 28 points is more than reasonable (The Azzuiri
have beaten that mark in the last 5 meeting but not in this situation) – But the
Wallabies have won the second half in 4 of their last 5 Tests and a handicap of
15 points in the second half is fair.
Advice: 2 pts Australia -15 on 2nd Half Handicap (evs
Betfred)
Ireland (1/41) v USA
(50)
Ireland have been in terrible form of late and now occupy their
lowest rankings spot for some time off the back of their 20-9 loss to England
in Dublin - Ireland's fourth in their RWC 2011 warm-up matches, having lost to
Scotland and France (twice) home and away –And face a tricky pool with Australia
and Italy looking to push them out at the Pool stage again.
Ireland didn’t start well 4 years ago (when in better shape)
– Scrapping to a 31-17 win over Nambia before nearly being turned over by Georgia
14-10 – And will be desperate to win here.
While the USA get a shot a
potentially below par Ireland, their form isn’t much to shout about - losses
to Japan, Canada, (twice), Tonga and Georgia – indicate that they’re not in
great shape, but their World Cup performance in France was very encouraging.
In Paris they pushed England, Tonga and Samoa very close, covering
the handicap on all three occasions and Coach Eddie O’Sullivan will name their
strongest side which should include Chris Wyles, James Patterson, and Zimbabwe
born Taku Negwenya, scorer of 8 tries in just 19 International, including the
try of the Tournament in France.
The handicap underdogs have had a good start in the
tournament and the USA may be worth backing with a 35 point start for interest,
while Ireland to win by 1-12 points shouldn’t be as big as 9’s – Any win will
do for Declan Kidney’s men.
Advice: 1 pt USA +35 (10/11 Boylesports) 1 pt Ireland to win
by 1 – 12 (9/1 general)
South Africa (1/5) v
Wales (11/2)
A delicious tie. World Champions South Africa have been written
off by many owing to some poor form since – While others have tried to
downgrade their 2007 triumph due to them not facing either New Zealand or
Australia during their campaign.
A poor Tri Nations which saw them lose 3 games (failing to
cover a single handicap in the process) has seen many look at an ageing side
and doubt their credentials for this tournament but with as many as 20 players
rested for all their matches but New Zealand – Which they won 18-5 against a
second string side – It’s fair to say that’s not an accurate reflection of
their talents.
The Enigmatic Peter De Villers has seen the light and gone
for experience, meaning the team is the most experienced XV to ever represent
South Africa, with a combined caps total of 815 - surpassing the 810 caps of
the team that played Australia in Durban in August. That includes 11 players
who were part of the 2007 World Cup winning squad, which makes the Springboks a
tempting proposition.
Wales come here having beaten England and Argentina but
there’s a suspicion that both sides weren’t firing at the Millenium Stadium and
South Africa at a neutral venue will be a huge test for Gatland’s side.
With Stephen Jones ruled out by a calf injury, Sam Priestland,
a man with only four Test appearances (and two starts) to his name, one of
which was at full-back, will deputise and the Springboks, short of Bakkies Botha
to play the enforcer role, will target him.
South Africa were tempting to cover a 14 point handicap (7
either half) – but the last 2 meetings have seen only 3 points between the two
at the end. However, 9 of the last 12 meetings between these two have seen 41
or more points, which has to be worth a proper punt at 5/6 across the board.
South Africa’s scoring has improved of late while Wales won’t lie down without
a fight, and both teams have plenty of tries in them thanks to Bryan Habana and
George North.
Advice: 4 pts 42 or more points (5/6 general)
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