Samoa (1/50) v Nambia
(33)
The matches in the World Cup have all gone the way of the
heavy favourites in the match betting but the match performances of underdogs
and “minnows” Romania, Namibia, and Japan against Scotland, Fiji and France has
shown that no game is a given at the World Cup anymore, even for a
well-established team.
To add to that, Tonga, once into the game fully after a
devastating first half, managed to frustrate New Zealand in the second half
(which was 13 – 7 in the hosts favour) while 14 point underdogs Wales would
have beaten South Africa had it not been for James Hook’s wrongly “missed”
penalty and Sam Priestland’s point blank drop goal miss.
None of that makes Nambia remotely interesting against
Samoa, who could make a huge hit again in this tournament. Titamea Tafu’s side
have made some steady improvement over the past year, making the England,
Ireland and Scotland work very hard in defeat with a strong win over Japan.
After honourable defeats against Tonga and France they sent
shockwaves around the Rugby world when beating Australia in Sydney – A colossal
achievement for any side, even taking into account the fact that Australia were
missing Quade Cooper, Will Genia, Kurtley Beale, James O'Connor, James Horwill
and David Pocock - annihilating the Wallabies in every category (especially
defence).
That same form is going to blow away even the improved
Nambians, but there’s no guarantee of that even though named the same side that
beat Australia in Sydney. A better bet may well be to back Nambia to cover 13
points on the half time handicap, seeing as Fiji did so despite being behind
three times in the early stages of the match.
Advice: 2 pts Samoa -13 on Half Time Handicap (5/6 Paddy
Power)
Tonga (1/2) v Canada
(9/4)
Handicap underdogs have struggled at this World Cup but
Tonga can put that right by beating Canada on Wednesday. The Tongans struggled
badly against New Zealand in what was always going to be a near impossible
battle but once warming to the task, caused an admittedly unfocused New Zealand
side a lot of problems.
The Tongans managed to restrict the All Blacks to just 13
points in the second half while scoring 7 of their own, and should come on a
lot for that match with the team likely to know each other much better a more convincing
performance should be enough see off Canada.
The Tongans had their most successful World Cup yet in 2007
with two wins over the USA and Samoa earning a third in their pool behind
eventual finalists South Africa and England, and have only improved since, with
their effort against New Zealand proving that.
Canda reached the final of the Churchill Cup but that was against
a contingent of Island teams who had key players out in Europe and they will
have to work much harder against a physical Tongan pack who could have the fitness
advantage too, and a win by 5 is more than achievable for such a side. As a top
up, take the 13/8 that Tonga win both halves.
Advice: 4 pts Tonga -4 (4/5 Paddy Power), 1 pt Tonga to win
both halves (13/8 Bet365)
Scotland (1/10) v
Georgia (10)
Scotland came through a tough test in try scoring style
against Romania but will need all that and more against Georgia, who are on a
run of form against second level nations and are currently leading the 2011-12
European Nations Cup with five wins from five matches.
Scotland had to work hard to put Romania away and their scrum
was given a torrid time by the Romanian eight on more than one occasions. It
could have been even tighter had the Romanians tightened up their tackling,
with 22 misses in total.
Not only will Georgia play the same way, but they have an even
more physical pack and are a better team than Romania even if their margin of
victory in March was just 7 points – They came close to one of the best shocks
of all time when nearly beating Ireland 14-10 in 2007 and have improved since.
The inclusion of Dan Parks at fly half is much needed but
may not be as effective as desired – Conditions are set to be wet with gusting
winds of 15 mph, which stopped Ireland scoring numerous times against the USA –
and his drop goal ability will need to be spot on here in what should be a
tight game.
Advice: 3 pts Georgia +21 (10/11 Betfred)
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