Rugby World Cup 2011 - Japan v Tonga

Thanks to some very shrewd advice, long before I had started writing this, Japan were the pick for their crucial head to head with Tonga in in Whangarei on Wednesday.

The match odds around this seem to be using New Zealand as a colloquial formline, which is understandable but seemingly flawed. Tonga held New Zealand to 12-7 in the second half when they lost to the All Blacks in the tournament opener on September 9 but the home side were home and hosed by then which flattered Tonga.

This was proven when they faltered after leading 20-13 with 20 minutes to go against a spirited Canada side who were always going to take some pegging back in hindsight against what was a much changed team. Maka rightly faced criticism in the wake of the clash due to his chop-and-change policy and it’s a worry that he still persists with this policy, as the team which takes to the field has again had many changes.

Japan were smashed 83-7 by New Zealand when last seen but Kirwan conceded defeat to New Zealand by selecting a second-string team – 10 changes were made including fly – half James Arlidge (above) who scored all of Japan’s points is now back into the side for this game.

Indeed, Kirwan has named has named 13 of the line-up which took to the field against France in their World Cup opener, with the only two players not to return being injured. A winning margin of 47-21 was flattering to Livermont’s charges as Japan tired late on, and that should serve notice of the capability of the Blossoms.

There’s plenty of recent form to go on – The two sides play against each other in the Pacific Nations and since Kirwan has taken over Japan have won the last 5 meetings, the latest being an epic 27-28 win.

At the late – is time of writing, the main value has gone on Japan – They were 4-1 on Sunday and you could have gotten a 12 point start – But a 6 point start should see them be very competitive indeed and that can be topped up with a general back at around 15/8, which still looks too big.

Advice

3 pts Japan +6 (10/11 Boylesports)

2 pts Japan (15/8 Sportingbet)