Wales (1/5) v Samoa
(11/4)
After Ireland’s dramatic win over Australia, we have another
game which has just as much potential for drama, and given the circumstances surrounding
the game, it could be one of the best of the tournament.
After a period of much uncertainty for Wales in the end it
was they who deserved a win against World Champions South Africa in their
opening game before falling just short late on in a game they should have won
by 6 had it not been for Hook’s wrongly unreferred/disallowed kick and
Preistland’s missed drop goal.
Sam Warburton, Toby Faletau, Jamie Roberts and Rhys Priestland
all had close to career best games that day and while it is also a sign of huge
encouragement for their chances, the same effort will once again be needed
against an in form and highly rated Samoa side who now look like their main
rival for qualification behind South Africa.
Despite having not played a test for three months – After beating
Australia in Sydney – Samoa brushed aside any possible fitness concerns with a convincing
59 – 12 win over Namibia and now look like the most complete side Wales have
faced in a meeting between the two.
Giant winger Alesana Tuilangi was been in terrific try
scoring form, with a hat – trick against Namibia, and he will be looking to get
his name on the scoresheet for sure today against a back three that was
breached twice by a below par South Africa.
As far as the match call is concerned, Wales get a tight
vote here. They’ve made some steady progress and really should have beaten the
World Champions last time, so shouldn’t be scared by a physical clash with the inform
Islanders. Samoa are obviously a real danger and huge threat, but if Wales
allow themselves to keep their heads up they can out battle them and keep their
qualification hopes alive.
Advice: 2 pts Wales to win by 1-12 points (9/5 Bet365)
England (1/66) v
Georgia (50)
England were made to scrap for a win against Argentina and
Georgia will be no less easy for them. A tight and tense encounter for Martin
Johnson’s side ended in a small margin win thanks to the injection of pace that
Ben Young’s provided and it’s interesting to see 2 other pacey backs in the
shape of Ben Foden and crucially everyone’s favourite tryscorer Chris Ashton,
who can boast 9 tries in just 14 caps, a remarkable record.
On another points scoring note, Toby Flood now gets his
chance with the new ball after Jonny Wilkinson's faltering display with the
boot against Argentina in what is a pivotal game for budding fly half – Lewis
Moody and Nick Easter add some much needed muscle to England.
Georgia will be a massive test once again for England –
Should they be able to impose a forward based game on them like they were with
Scotland, who had enough to come through anyway. Should the same happen again
then it’s likely to be some hairy moments for Johnston’s men but things here
will be different from Wednesday – The stadium has a roof so it’s dry conditions
all the way and a quick turnaround for all but 2 of the Lelos’ starting XV is
likely to prove a hindrance late on, which leads us to our match calls below.
England’s shortest handicap is one of 35 points, which seems
fair if they can get the ball out to the wings but a lot relies on a decent
early start in terms of try scoring – In running might be the way to do it. It
requires less faith to back them giving up 19 points on the second half
handicap – Many Georgians could be getting tired and sloppy by then which doesn’t
bode well given England’s strong showing after the break – They won the second
half 10-3 against Argentina, 7-0 against Ireland, won games after coming in
level (9-9) against Scotland and France in the 6 Nations while also doing the
same against Wales. Should England struggle
badly though, a win by 1-12 points is as big as 14’s with Betfred, which can’t
go untouched.
Advice: 2 pts England
-19 on 2nd half handicap (5/6 Betfred), 1 pt England to win by 1-12
points (14/1 Betfred)
France (1/50) v
Canada (28)
Tournament shouts France made a satisfactory start when
avoiding a shock against Japan but tinkerman manager Marc Livermont may give
himself more trouble than he’s worth by naming a second string outfit and
against a spirited Canada side fresh from an excellent win over a much changed
Tonga in which they answered many doubts about their set pieces with a thoroughly
spirited display.
Lièvremont criticised his side after the Japan game for
failing to play as a unit so 12 changes here doesn’t bode well for a side that
were given more than a few hairy moments by Japan before three late tries.
Without the established backs that make France so brilliant in their link up
play, one has to worry about how fluent the side will be, let alone how they
respond under pressure.
Canada have named an unchanged team, both starting XV and
bench, for this game which suggests that another big effort is in the offing
and that they genuinely believe they can shock Les Bleus. That shouldn’t be the
case here but France aren’t necessarily the cleanest of sides at the back and a
32 point handicap might be asking a lot of them if they don’t click early.
They should come through though, and a tight win would not surprise
at all so 1-12 points gets the call at 7/1 with Ladbrokes.
Advice: 2 pts Canada +32 (10/11 Skybet, Totesport, Betfred),
1 pt France to win by 1-12 points (7/1 Ladbrokes)
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