Heineken Cup Semi Final - Clermont v Leinster

Let me throw a quick hypothetical your way. Two teams (let’s say any given sport) are facing each-other in a European semi – final. Both have top quality players in both attack and defence. Both come here top (one joint) of their domestic leagues and were deeply impressive winners of their quarter finals. But consider this; The home side are unbeaten in 42 matches on their own turf in an affair where both sides are offered at even money.

 That’s the situation regarding today’s semi-final between Clermont and Leinster, and the home side look close to maximum bet value based not only on the home record that they can boast of but also the impression they left when destroying Saracens at Vicarage Road in the quarter finals, which underlined the depth of their squad to such an extent that many of the UK’s top Rugby journalists immediately questioned the effect that the salary cap was having on the Aviva Premiership.

Leinster lead 4-1 on head to head match stats but the points total between the two in those 5 games reads 101-85 & 8-7 in tries, while fly half Brock James – so impressive when Clermont destroyed Saracens – missed several excellent drop goal and penalty attempts before Leinster snuck through 29-28.  The last team to beat Leinster in this competition, Clermont had earned an unfair reputation as bottlers in their domestic league after several defeats in the Top 14 final but after their 2010 success nobody doubts them now and they look ready to make the step up to the Heineken Cup final glory.

Clermont have been beaten just once in all competitions since the beginning of December last year, which was a one point loss at Biarritz – once looking like relegation fodder before a comeback run which has seen them make it to the Challenge Cup final – their only slip up.

Facing champions Leinster is as tough a task as they could have asked for here but the head to head record shows that there’s little between the teams and in that situation, the home advantage could prove crucial as it always does when two major European names meet. This season Clermont lost only 2 pool games – both defeats coming at Ulster (16-11) and Leicester (23-19) – but won those reverse fixtures 30-12 and 19-15.

Their star studded back division of Aurelien Rougerie – who’s bounced back from an appalling 6 Nations in fine style over the past 2/3 weeks - Morgan Parra, Wesley Fofana and Julien Malzieu - along with Welsh star Lee Byrne and All Black Sitiveni Sivivatu,  is one of few that can pose a real threat to Leinster’s defence – the tightest in the Pro 12 going by points conceded, while it was impossible not to be impressed by the way they repelled wave after wave of Saracens attacks – it should be remembered that the England team who finished second in the 6 Nations had the bulk of their talent given by Saracens – and those skills are likely to be at a premium today against Leinster’s powerful centres and backline.

The defending Champions and Runaway Pro 12 winners were hugely impressive when wiping aside Cardiff in the quarters but the Blues were in no shape to play Leinster after being thrashed by Cardiff (with Gavin Henson’s infamous departure coming on the same flight after). They still deserve the utmost respect having beaten finalists Ulster at Ravenhill last week (a feat that’s as good as any in European Rugby) but today the only team I want to be with is Clermont. With the two teams so evenly matched, the 1-5 point winning margin also looks like good value while covering the stakes for a draw/Clermont result could pay off.

Advice

5 pts Clermont Auvergne to make final (4/5 Paddy Power)

2 pts Clermont to win by 1-5 points (5/1 Blue Sq, 888Sport)

1 pt Draw (18/1 general)

1 pt Draw/Clermont (22/1 general)

Heineken Cup Semi Final - Ulster v Edinbrugh

The first Scottish side to make it to the semi-final of the Heineken Cup, Edinbrugh deserve huge credit for their big achievements in dumping out the 4 time winners Toulouse, but  a trip to Ulster might just prove beyond them – even if only just.

Michael Bradley’s side have struggled in the Rabo Direct Pro12 with an appalling 5 wins from 12 games but they’re a different beast in the Heineken Cup and their record of Five out of six wins in a pool also featuring Cardiff Blues, London Irish and Racing-Metro is a record that stands up the closest scrutiny, while their win over Toulouse was a triumph in mixing set piece competence with moments of attacking flair, as Toulouse never truly looked like winning once going behind and scored most of their points during the period when Edinbrugh were down to 13 men.

A large part of their league form – which is admittedly dismal – has been down to Scotland taking the large part of their first team, which includes Mike Blair, Greig Laidlaw (below left), Ross Rennie, Allan Jacobsen and Ross Ford, and unlike the big three Irish provinces, they may not have had the squad to back it up thanks to a lack of funding, apart from the likes of say, Clermont or Toulouse.

Their trip to Ulster is a new and different challenge though. Beaten only twice in the Pool Stages (and that on the road to fellow semi-finalists Clermont and current Aviva Premiership favourites Leicester Tigers) Brian McLaughlin’ side were astonishing when winning at rivals Munster – becoming only the third team to win at Thormond Park in European competition.

At the forefront of their win there was not only the lightning fast start they made but the astonishing defensive effort made after they went 19-0 up in defence and also at the breakdown, where they outfought the likes of Paul O’Connell and Donnacha Ryan before just suffocating the home attack at the crucial time – the 15 minute period after half time when Muster exerted most of their pressure.

Judged by McLaughlin’s selection of Paddy Jackson at fly-half a different plan is in store today but the strength at the ruck is likely to be crucial in restraining Edinbrugh’s big runners on and off the ball and also across the gainline – the likes of Ross Rennie, David Denton, and Netani Talei will all need to be slowed down significantly if  fears of an upset are to be quashed – but they have the experience, nous, and attacking power through the likes of Ruan Piennar Stefan Terblanche, Andrew Trimble, Craig Gilroy (pictured) Darren Cave and Paddy Wallace to sneak out a win here.

Many will be tempted by a handicap of -6 points for the home side being offered by Stan James given the gap between them in the Pro 12 but the best way to side with the home side seems to be for a win by 1-12 points. Edinbrugh have been beaten by 22 points in both of the fixtures this season but all of their efforts this season have focused purely on Europe and they should push the home side all the way if going down valiantly at this stage; Consider backing the underdogs with an 8 point start too  as they should be very competitive.

Advice

3 pts Ulster to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general) 

Bahrain Grand Prix 2012 Preview

They say that form is temporary, class is permanent and maybe Sebastian Vettel - on pole for the 31^st time in his career at Bahrain today – reminded us of his talents when all is well with his Red Bull by taking the top spot from Lewis Hamilton in qualifying on Saturday.With three winners of the first three race it’s easy to forget just how dominant Vettel was throughought last year. Qualifying struggles – in China Vettel failed to get into the top 10 qualifying shoot-out for the first time since the Brazilian Grand Prix in October 2009 – had held him back but his race pace had been decent enough to see him make up 4 and then 8 places in two of the three Grands Prix this season. 

 

Given those factors it’s no surprise to see him as short as 11/8 to resume his old ways from last season and he should take some catching but there isn’t that gap between Red Bull and the other cars and 2009 winner Jenson Button (left) makes a lot of appeal at 5/1.

Button lines up fourth on the dirty side of the grid but is an all - out raceday specialist and with track conditions likely to bring skill and tactical nous to the fore, he has to be highest on the list. With the Middle Eastern Climate giving us temperatures that are expected to be twice as hot as anything experienced on the circuit so far the control tryes given by Pirelli have struggled badly for grip, with the whole field being effected and some drivers making an extra effort to save their tyres for the race.  For example Michael Schumacher, so quick with the cool climate in Shanghai, struggled badly in qualifying, failing to make it to P2 and ending up 17^th (albeit having posted a time that he felt would make it through only to be usurped late).

With four very lengthy straights and several swooping and slow corners Bahrain places an emphasis on traction, straight-line speed and braking, all areas where McLaren and Button have excelled when they’ve had the chance to show their talents this season, as his opening win in Melbourne showed. Things turned against him in the next two races but he was lapping 2 seconds faster than anyone else at times despite languishing in last after just 16 laps due to crashing with Narain Karthikeyan and breaking his front wing, while a gap of 22 seconds between him and Nico Rosberg  is flattering towards the German given how Button’s botched pit stop –  where a sticky left-rear wheel delayed his getaway - lap 39 cost him badly, and the fact that Button was able to snatch second says not only something about the pace of his card but the talent he possesses behind the wheel. With the race tomorrow likely to become a test of stamina on more than one level, he makes great appeal at 5/1 in comparison to the top two on the grid while the 8/11 on offer in places for a podium finish seems like a very solid bet.

Nico Rosberg has to take the eye in fifth given the pace that the Mercedes have shown this season  and being the only driver with a set of new options for tomorrow has to augur well although the temperatures in Bahrain might not be so conducive to his tyre wear . Daniel Riccardo deserves huge credit for coming sixth although he may well have been helped by the decision of some to take it easy with a mind for the first stint of the race tomorrow; Kimi Raikkonen is an example of that (he decided that it would be worth saving his tyres for Q3 instead of going through).

Roman Grosjean once again is looking very quick in his Lotus and a charge up the field wouldn’t surprise although I don’t see him making the podium; Top 6 is a realistic aim though. Perez is a solid driver and along with Di Resta he should be there or thereabouts, while Fernando Alonso has three wins here.

All make varying amounts of appeal, but one driver who is of interest is Pastor Maldonado (left). A talented driver – yes he may be funded partly by the Venezuelan Government, but he is e 2010 GP2 Champion and a former Champion of Italian Formula Renault - he’s driven extremely well this season but has been sorely undeserving of a total as low as 5 points. If he’d settled for seventh place in Australia then he’d have eanred more points for Williams there they had during the whole of last season, while an engine malfunction in Malaysia cost him some much deserved points once again. When all dropped right he was a creditable eighth in China and that sort of result is by no means impossible once again, so the 7/2 on him making the top 10 seems on the generous side, especially given a good start – He was unable to post a time in Q2 yesterday because of a KERS problem – with the race likely to change complexions on multiple occasions.  His team mate Brunno Senna has two place finishes for this season (both when making 7 places from his position on the starting grid) and that makes the 7/1 about a Williams double points finish excellent value.

Advice

1 pt Jenson Button (5/1 general)

4 pts Jenson Button Podium Finish (8/11 general)

2 pts Pastor Maldonado points finish (7/2 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Williams Double Finish (7/1 Bwin)

Bahrain Grand Prix 2012 - Practice 1 preview

Political issues aren’t the main thought of the Vic Page – I’m still smarting from Nick Clegg’s double whammy on the Student fees – but it’s slightly surprising that the Bahrain Grand Prix is going ahead given the massive protests throughought the country, and Authorities in Bahrain have already tightened security ahead of practice sessions.

There are several protests taking place in Bahrain this weekend

In contrast to recent F1 seasons, no team or driver has stamped their authority on the Championship in the opening three races, with the first three races brining out 3 different winners, two of which were relatively unfancied before the weekend that started properly.  In many ways it’s very encouraging to see the best drivers getting the result on the day and new measures are clearly making for some more exciting races, which means that everybody wins with the strongest driving lineup for a long while seen here.

The best car has been McLaren’s Mercedes, which sees Hamilton in the world championship lead, two points ahead of Button. Button was beaten a long way behind Rosberg in second last weekend but he’s probably have made a good chase of things if he hadn’t suffered a problem fitting a rear wheel at his final pit stop.

Despite suffering a 5 place grid penalty, Hamilton was third and now leads the Championship, so the McLaren clearly has the best pace not only in timed sessions – Hamilton has two out of three poles this year – and he also has two out of three wins in the 1^st practice, which makes the 9/5 about him winning the 1^st Practice looking like a decent wager; He has been no worse than second in a 1^st practice this year and looks to be the fastest driver over a lap on all evidence, so around 2/1 that he’s first fastest is very enticing.

Team mate Jenson Button – the only other driver to win one of the practice sessions this season looks big at 11/2 for this event, especially from an each/way perspective, but you can get two coupled for 8/11 with Ladbrokes and that seems to be a solid selection.

Advice

3 pts McLaren fastest car in Practice 1 (8/11 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Lewis Hamilton to be fastest in P1 (9/5 Paddy Power) 

RBC Heritage Preview 2012

The PGA Tour gets back to semblance of normality with the RBC Heritage Championship, and not for the first time this month, the spotlight is on Luke Donald, who disappointed on the Masters after being one of many to fall too far behind to make a proper impact despite a strong last round.

Despite some strong opposition, with the change in style from Augusta expected to suit, Donald has a good chance to quickly atone for his early failures last week, with the course suiting him well based on previous performances. Donald finished runner up to Snedeker here last year, was third in 2010 and second in 2009, all efforts which would see him go close once again. The course at Harbour Town Golf Links not only has a very tight and claustrophobic fairway, but also some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. With a winners list such as Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Tom Watson and Davis Love III, one would think that it lends itself to specialists and Donald is clearly one of those with his close finishes in the last three renewals.

The best priced 7/1 available on him winning here does seem a little on the short side but it’s understandable given the quality of his tee to green game – the course holds no more than 11 par fours  – and he looks worth having onside in the portfolio for this weekend’s event to make up for his Augusta disappointment.

At more than double the odds, so does Bo Van Pelt (above), who was so disappointing for the first three days of the Masters before shooting such a brilliant last round of 68 to make a late 17^th. A talented player, he’s sometimes struggled to get the results that his ability deserves but he showed what he was all about at Augsta last week and has other solid form to back that up too – he came into Agusta with 16 top 10’s in the last 2 years –and at 25/1 in places he deserves a serious amount of respect. Having come third here in 2010 to follow top-15 finishes in both 2007 & 2009, we know that his game handles this course and coming off the back of such an incredible round last Sunday, he could look to make a fast start which would give him a massive chance considering his consistency relating to the top 10 finishes. It’s worth remembering that the front runners in the Masters all got away with strong opening rounds and Van Pelt was by no means out of things until the third round, when he must have felt that his time was up in any case.  Of course he had a pressure free final round but shooting 64 around Augusta is a world class effort and this could be his time to shine.

Paddy Power are only 22’s but they’ll offer 6 places – something you can’t turn down for such fierece events such as this - while having him in the top 10/20 and American Markets too seems a solid play, while a match bet 4 fold (Van Pelt to beat Els, Na, Snedeker, Simpson and Snedeker again in his threeball) – something which we fell just short with thanks to Bubba Watson’s win in the Masters last week –seems like a fun bet at 15/1 despite the fact that last year’s Champion Brad Snedeker is in that list.

Others to give serious consideration too include prominent Augusta finishers Matt Kuchar – who was a sensational 3^rd at Augusta, while the big premium on ball placement this week should see other notable big hitters (out selection Van Pelt is known for giving the ball a good smack) an advantage; Think along the lines of Zach Johnson, who has a sixth here to his name and hasn’t missed a cut this year.

It was only upon reading further that I discovered that Jim Fuyrk’s win here over Brian Davis was purely due to a great show of sportsmanship when the latter man carded a foul on himself that cost himself the tournament, but it shows that both handle the course and Fuyrk’s confidence especially must be sky high after the Masters compared to a downbeat attitude he had beforehand having previously demanded the demanding test at Augsta; "It is a big course for me. I end up trying to hit it too hard and too high and end up getting outside my realm." Fuyrk just missed out in a playoff to Luke Donald at the Transitions three weeks ago before his Masters’ effort and is impossible to fault.

Webb Simpson struggled badly at Augusta last week but the good reason for that is how inexperienced he was; Augusta is merciless against its debutants and back on a course where he routinely places, expect him to be one of many who’s thereabouts.

I haven’t even touched on last year’s champion and Masters 19^th Brandt Snedeker, who came back from six strokes off the lead to force a play-off which he duly won at the third extra hole. With a tour win under his belt he seems ready to go, while Ernie Els – another course specialist – was 12^th a Redstone in preparation for this week and is another of quite a few set for a charge in what could be a cracking tournament.

Six of the players mentioned here - Van Pelt, Snedeker, Els, Furyk, Donald, Kuchar & Simpson – can call be backed in a dutching bet against the field to win at 13/8 with Paddy Power; That looks like a very solid bet with the last two winners onside, along with the World No.1, our original tip, and 2 players who should fancy their chances of taking this very strongly.

Advice

4 pts one of the "Big 6" to win the Tournament (13/8 Paddy Power)

1 pt win, 1 pt each/way Luke Donald, (7/1 general, 6 places with Stan James @ 13/2)

1 pt win, 2 pts each/way Bo Van Pelt (22/1 Stan James)

1 pt each/way Bo Van Pelt top American (16/1 Ladbrokes)

3 pts Bo Van Pelt top 10 finish (5/2 Stan James)

7 pts Bo Van Pelt top 20 finish (evs general)

1 pt Bo Van Pelt to beat Ernie Els, Kevin Na, Brad Snedeker, Webb Simpson and also win his threeball (15.08 general)

Heineken Cup Quarter Finals 2012 - Sarcens v Clermont

The phrase “coin toss” is an often used one in sports betting but it’s really true when describing the last Heineken Cup quarter final between Saracens and Clermont at Vicarage Road, and it’s hard to find anything between two richly talented teams – and if that wasn’t enough, a home semi-final is at stake.

Both sides lie second in their domestic leagues, and both sides can count on two of the most talented 15’s in European Rugby.  The sole survivors from the Aviva Premiership, Saracens can now call on their midfield powerhouse of Brad Baritt – so crucial towards England’s 4 wins during the 6 Nations – once again following his recovery from injury while they’re once again boosted by  England scrum-half Richard Wigglesworth making his first start since October, while Wales prop Rhys Gill also returns to the side.

That isn’t even counting the presence of England’s new star Owen Farrell at inside centre while Charlie Hodgson improved as a fly half throughought the 6 Nations & Mouritz Botha too has improved as a player during that period. Adding Schalk Burger’s trademark charges towards that line and you have a side talented enough to play anyone in World Rugby.

Just a shame that they have to come up against Clermont Auvergne of all teams. With Morgan Parra now fit to start David Skrela has a player of equal ability in their half back pairing while Wesley Fofana – France’s biggest running threat in the 6 Nations before he switched out to the Wing for their defeat to Wales – meets up with his inside centre Aurelien Rougerie, below his best on the International stage but still a force to be dealt with in this sphere.

Lineout king Julien Bonnaire is needed to pressure a side that won all 14 lineouts on their own throw while taking two from Harlequins at Wembley last weekend,  and just to underline the strength in depth they have, Jean-Marcel Buttin, Vincent Debaty & Julien Pierre are all on the bench.

This should lead to a high scoring game but the reality may be something different. Saracens pride themselves on defence and have conceded a maximum of 30 points in the Premiership this year; That being when away at Northampton in mid-season. Clermont are conceding just 13 points a game on average and come into this game on a great run of form, with just 1 defeat in their last 11; That came against Biarritz on the road last time. 

How to split the two sides? With little more than a point likely to be between them, the home advantage has to be the call. Saracens were beaten twice by Clermont last year but they’re a much better side now and despite their defeat against Harlequins at Wembley last time, they’ll feel confident enough about their chances infront of their own crowd. Clermont present a huge challenge for any side but they’ve lost by four and five points on the road respectively this year in Europe and have lost three quarter finals on road in this competition.

Advice

1 pt Saracens to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general) 

Heineken Cup Quarter Finals 2012 - Munster (2/5) v Ulster (5/2)

I’ll say it before, and I’ll say it again – Of the now 62 quarter finals played during the Heineken Cup, only 14 have been won by the away team, and the fact that Munster Rugby provide 6 of those wins is probably most of the reason behind their odds on price of 2/5 for their blockbuster quarter final tie against rivals Ulster at Thomond Park.

Unbeaten in this year’s competition, there’s only been one meeting between the two this season but the 33-17 win for Ulster came at Ravenhill and Munster were without several first name Irish internationals, something compounded by the fact that the hosts had just a 4 day turnaround from their battle with Leinster and decided to target the second game with their full squad.

As far the Heineken Cup’s concerned Munster may be unbeaten in this year’s competition but there’s nothing between them on the best of form in Europe and domestically, something reflected in the fact that there’s just a point between them domestically.

Nothing can be taken away from their pool stage crusade though. Wins against Northampton and Castres from the boot of Ronan O’Gara were magical moments while no side has been as impressive during the pool stages in victory as they had been when trashing Munster in England to reach the quarters with a home seeding; Such was their margin of victory, it had people questioning the State of the Nations more than a month before the start of the 6 Nations.

Ulster had the rugby scholars doing the same thing when they pummelled Leicester – fresh from beating off Wasps - 41-7 to maintain a winning streak at home that has now lasted 3 years, and they come here on a run of 7 wins from their last 8 matches with an average winning margin of 14 points.  The priceless Stephen Ferris has passed the necessary fitness tests but it’s not all about the grunt with such names like Terblanche, Trimble, Wallace, Humphreys and Piennaar it’s safe to assume that the disparity in prices between the two is wrong.

A handicap start of 7 points for the away side looks generous to be frank, but of more interest is the 13/8 on a home win by 1-12 points. Away from Ravenhill, Ulster have only beaten Aironi, an under strength Edinburgh and Treviso, while their two defeats in the pool stages came on the road at Leicester and Clermont albeit by just five and four points respectively (the latter performance was a particularly worthy one of note and deserves respect). Munster have won 10 of their 12 games in the Pro 12 by 1-12 points and are able to call on a much stronger side than when beaten 18-9 by Leinster (no real shame in itself); 4 of the 7 changes made from that starting 15 are Denis Healy, Conor Murray, Donnacha Ryan and Paul O’Connell , which should give them only just enough of an edge to sneak into the semi finals. For some extra value, the 1-5 winning margin is once again 11/2 with Hills, and worth a poke given that the two teams are separated by little or nothing.

Advice

2 pts Munster to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Stan James)

1 pt Munster to win by 1-5 points (11/2 Hills)

West Indies v Australia - Series & 1st Test Preview

As one test series ends, another begins. West Indies and Australia’s test series hasn’t quite had the coverage that it really deserves given the hubbub about England retaining their No.1 position at the head of the Championship, but anyone who turned into Sky Sports 4 from 3PM is likely to be in for a treat.

The two sides were evenly matched in the One Day series and not even tests were enough to separate them and it’ll be fascinating to see how they match up in the Test arena today.  The Windies have made a decent recovery considering the political infighting that has blighted their regional game and it’ll be fascinating to see how they start infront of a hopefully vociferous home crowd.

Their home record certainty needs a good deal of improving on. Since they last played a home series against Australia, in 2008, West Indies have won only two out of 15 home Tests, and lost series against Bangladesh, India and South Africa.

They were always going to be up against things playing in India but even them they were brushed aside fairly readily and before that they’d beaten Bangladesh in their last previous series. While their ODI form seems to suggest an improved team the IPL means that Kieron Pollard, Dwayne Bravo, Sunil Narine, Andre Russell and Chris Gayle are all missing which leaves a big hole in the side.

This leaves Shivnarine Chanderpaul to hold things together for the Windies, and the stats are very much a pointer towards a big showing. ESPN says that in 12 Tests against Australia since 2000, Chanderpaul averages 47.95; in six home Tests against them during this period, his record matches that of Ponting's: four centuries in six Tests, and an average of 77.67. Moreover, he also has a superb record in Barbados, the venue for the first Test: in 15 matches there, he averages 63.55, including three centuries. He can be backed at 7/2 with Ladbrokes to be the top West Indies Batsman during the 1^st test and at the same score for the Series, both of which seem decent value.

Australia’s batting line up has improved since that Ashes trashing by England; Indeed Michael Clarke (pictured with Ricky Ponting) seems to be getting the best out of his charges as they look to make some progress throughought the test rankings, and with 626 runs in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy he looks well worth backing for the same honours as Chanderpaul, along with a good bet on him to outscore David Warner in the 1^st innings of the first test. During the Border - Gavaskar Trophy Warner and Clarke drew 3 times but that looks to be a bit of an anomaly given the disparity in runs between the two and at 5/6 the captain can show who’s boss.

Australia’s pace bowling attack is sure to be lethal if they can get the right bounce off the pitches and I’ve been of the view that James Pattinson – one of quite a few finds since the Ashes defeat by England – is not only the most talented of the Australia group, but one of the more promising fast bowlers in world cricket. Ever since he burst onto the scene against New Zealand he’s confirmed himself a top class bowler with a spree of wickets against India and he was unlucky to suffer injury midway through the series – if so he’d have finished up with double his total off 11 wickets based  on his average, and he can take the title of top wicket tacker throughought the series at a tasty 7/2; The 1^st innings bet deserves a look in too.

And while Australia are no value to win the series – wins to nil are a dangerous score in test cricket over a series – the 4/6 one can get on them winning the first test looks to be a very solid wager given the change up in squads since their ODI meetings.

Advice – 1^st Test

5 pts Australia (4/6 Blue Sq, Stan James, 888 Sport)

1 pt Michael Clarke top Australian Batsman (4/1Sky Bet, Stan James)

2 pts Michael Clarke to outscore David Warner in 1^st Innings (5/6 Hills)

1 pt Shivnarine Chanderpaul top West Indies 1^st innings batsman (7/2 Ladbrokes)

Advice – Series

1 pt Shivnarine Chanderpaul top West Indies batsman (7/2 Ladbrokes)

2 pts Michael Clarke top Australian Batsman (4/1 Stan James, Ladbrokes)

Heineken Cup Quarter Finals 2012 - Leinster (1/7) v Cardiff (9)

They’re the highest ranked team in Europe, and two time winners and holders Leinster are just 1/7 to make the semi-finals of the Heineken Cup for the sixth time, with the out o form Cardiff Blues being dismissed ahead of their visit to Dublin.

Joe Schmidt’s Leinster team have been fully deserving of their number one ranking in Europe, suffering just 3 defeats in their last 15 games across all competitions, with a home defeat against second placed Ospreys coming as a surprise despite the Welsh clubs recent resurgence towards second in the Pro 12.

Only Montpellier have come close to stopping Leinster in his year’s Heineken Cup and that was in France when they’d gone in at the break 13-6 down, but since then it’s been plain sailing in terms of results – at least at home – with no side getting within 20 points of the Heineken Cup holders in Dubin.

It’s a well-used piece of rhetoric but it’s well worth repeating the fact that only 14 teams out of 60 have won a quarter final away from home in the Heineken Cup and Leinster have won three quarter finals at home, which contrasts with a record of three defeats at this stage for the Blues themselves.

Cardiff themselves aren’t in the best of form, with just one win from their last 5 games and that coming against Benneton Treviso , and they got absolutely smashed by Glasgow despite having a strong side available for call up, and they’ve since lost two of their to inside centre options – the one place you do not want to be weak against Leinster with Brian O’Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy in the ranks.

One suspects that Gavin Henson won’t be missed after his general talent wasting, but the absence of Jamie Roberts with a knee injury is catastrophic for their chances even with replacement Casey Laulala Munster bound.

They’ve got talent in the wings such as Alex Cuthbert and Marytn Williamson is sure to be fired up on what could (should according to the bookies) be his last appearance in the Heineken Cup but it’s impossible to see Cardiff taking something from this trip even if they do take a siege mentality into this game with Leinster’s form, class and home record in this competition.

The general handicap offered is something around about the -15 mark and that would have been passed in all of Leinster’s home wins this year in the Heineken Cup, and their only Pro 12 meeting. They’re a prolific side after the break though, with twice as many tries in the second half compared to first in this seasons Pro12 (25 v 13) while Cardiff’s average in the League this season in the second half is actually -3 points, which gives the second half no draw handicap of -6.5 (Leinster must win by 7 or more for the bet to win) a lot of appeal.

If one was to be expecting general dominance, then the 4/5 offered by Bet365 on Leinster winning both halves has to be considered seriously. In all 3 ties played at the RDS this season – the Aviva will be even more daunting – they’ve done so and that has proven to be the case on 10 occasions in the Aviva from 19 – and at the price it looks well worth a play.

Advice

2 pts Leinster to win both halves (4/5 Bet365)

1 pt Leinster -6.5 on 2^nd half no draw H’cap (4/5 Betfred) 

Heineken Cup Quarter Finals 2012 - Edinbrugh (11/4) v Toulouse (2/5)

Of 60 Heineken Cup quarter finals only 14 teams have won without home advantage but 4 time winners Toulouse are one of only two sides to do so twice and they can sneak into the semi-finals once again with victory at a sell-out Murrayfield.

One of the few sides who have the nerve to win away in Europe at top teams, Le Tecfece managed to scrape past Biarritz in last year’s quarter final with the help of a dramatic Yannick Nyanga try, made all the more impressive by the fact that they played without Frederic Michalak, Byron Kelleher & Thierry Dusautoir (left), and the fact that they’d lost 17 unanswered points in the second half through the boot of Dimitri Yachvilli. It’s true they lost their semi final but that was against eventual winner Leinster and they need needed They’d also previously stopped Harlequins unbeaten run of 14 straight wins with a uber clinical performance to take all the points away from the Stoop, and when they got beaten in the reverse fixture Luke McAlister missed three easy penalties in the first 20 minutes and Vincent Clerc had a try ruled out for a forward pass. There’s the slight worry about their defeat against Gloucester in the final round of group games but defensive errors – notably by their top Tryscorer Timonici Manatanvou, who gave the hosts the easiest of tries on 4 minutes – played a big part in that defeat and the hosts had lost only two games all season.

It’s almost startling to think that if Harlequins –who had conditions and a heavy schedule against them – had won at Connaught, then the French Champions wouldn’t even be here today, but their never say die attitude and experience (no side has even played or won as many games in this competition as they have) has seen them through on countless occasions and it’s exactly what’s needed for this fierce test against an Edinburgh side that is sure to have put all their preparation into this day.

French call ups to the 6 Nations disrupted their February and March campaigns in the Top 14 but they still won 3 out of 5 games with the 35 – 5 defeat against Clermont Auvergne being excused on the grounds that the hosts have won 40 straight games at home, while such a task was always going to be impossible with their main starts out of the fold, something emphasised by the fact that nearly all of Clermont Auvergne’s points came from David Skrela. A shock defeat at relegation minnws Bordeaux could be put down towards Lionel Beauxis if one wants to be extremely harsh but that should be forgotten now as they broke an unbeaten streak for the second time this season when beating Stade Francais infront of 80,000 people for the first time this season in Paris, and if they can bring that form to the table here, they have the guts and skill to get through to yet another semi-final.

Hosts Edinbrugh may well be written off by form students but that would be stupid for two reasons. Firstly, they provide the backbone of the Scotland side that can be considered unlucky to have gained the Wooden Spoon despite some terribly slack moments in defence; This is emphasised by the fact their front row is the same as the one used by Andy Robinson – indeed, nine Edinburgh players represent the National side.

Secondly, given that Edinburgh will be back in this completion next year, they have all the time in the world to prepare for this day ever since the draw was made. The strong ball retention and phase play notable of Scotland’s best performances in the 6 Nations are notable of Edinburgh’s 5 wins in this competition so far and they’ll always a carry a huge threat, so this could be a high scoring game that goes down to the wire. 6/4 is offered on Toulouse to win by 1-12 points and that looks well worth taking, along with the 11/2 that they can sneak things out by 1-5.

Advice

4 pts Toulouse to win by 1-12 points (6/4 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Toulouse to win by 1-5 points (11/2 Hills) 

Masters 2012 - Day 1 threeballs

Bo Van Pelt has been recommended at fancy prices for nearly everything I can think of and I see no reason why he can’t be backed to win his 3 ball against Adam Scott and Martin Kaymer. Odds of 11/5 are just standout value on such a massive driver and with plenty of top ranked finishes of late, it’s nearly impossible not to have a play on him.

KJ Choi, so often seen threatening the leaderboard in this event, seems good value to beat Sergio Garcia - His best finish in the last seven Masters is just 35^th- and David Toms, while Like Donald is just superior to Nick Watney and Franceso Molinari – the 5/4 about him winning seems very generous.

Nothing come close for value though on the 13/10 offered about Phil Mickelson beating Hunter Mahan and Peter Hanson, while Justin Rose can get the better of Rickie Fowler and Trevor Immelman.

Advice

6 pts Phil Mickelson to win 3 ball (13/10 Bwin)

4 pts Justin Rose to win 3 ball (11/8 general)

3 pts Bo Van Pelt to win 3 ball (11/5 general)

2 pts KJ Choi to win 3 ball (7/4 general) 

Masters 2012

DISCLAIMER –  "All advice and tips in this preview– even those based on real tipster’s advice –- are entirely fictional. All research has been written by someone who has never played golf in any form ……..hastily. The following preview contains only recommended advice and due to its content it should not be viewed by anyone."

Sadly I don’t know my golf quite well enough to write a masters preview – Although you can rest assured that I’ll be watching closely – but there are a few pieces of advice that I can offer.

One is to read this fantastic trends based piece courtesy of Tim Larden (and his guest blogger the Hearty Ploughman) – which gives a Craig Thake/Paul Jones style analysis of the trends which have given us the last 20 winners of this tournament.

Next is to go and see how those opinions – if the above cases aren’t strong enough – are backed up by the excellent Betting.Betfair (Steven Rawlings, Romilly Evans, Andrew French ,Mike Norman, Paul Krishnamurty) & Sportinglife’s sister website Betting Zone (David John, Dave Tindall) and even if you’re not convinced after that, then there’s the Racing Post’s superb guide with the legenadry Steve Palmer and Jeremy Champan.

My personal shortlist right now consists of; Mickelson, Van Pelt, Rose, Donald, Choi, Mahan, Immelman, Schwartzel, McDowell, Johnson and Kaymer – I can’t have Woods or McIlroy at such short prices for such a big event. 

Rory McIlroy entered the final round here 12 months ago with a four-shot lead and then proceeded to shoot a shocking round of 80 after some terrible early mistakes. Given the serious need for course form at Augusta it would be easy to throw him out of calculations completely but that would be foolish in the extreme; He clearly blew away whatever mental block he was having when winning the US Open in sensational style at Congressional, doing what had looked likely for several days at Augusta last year.

He has the talent to romp home in this event with his eyes closed if he turns up on his game but a price of just 9/1 – it’s as short as 11/2 in places – is unbackable for such an event. Woods for me has the same issue; Price.

The whole reason behind him being favourite would be that he’s “back” following his easy win – his first in 30 months – at Bay Hill last time out. We know he’s go the tournament record here – he own four green jackets – and the talent – but this event has so many pitfalls that it’s impossible to recommend him properly, with the added factor that his closest rival at Bay Hill was Graeme McDowell, himself a good player but a reflection on how much deeper this field will be. The best you can get about him is 11/2 and in an event such as this, that’s really just best left.

In any case, Woods was thrashed in relative terms by Phil Mickelson (left) at Pebble Beach, where Mickelson gave his old rival a two-shot lead at the start and beat him by nine shots with a spectacular round of 64. At a general 12/1, along with evens for a top 10 finish, he represents top value once again despite his blowout last year, having romped home at Redstone before flopping into 24^th last year after a slow opening round – he missed more than a few good opportunities during his 2 under par 70 and could never claw his way back into things after an erratic second round.

Forgetting that, he has won three of the last eight tournaments and would have been a lot closer had it not been for several bogeys last year which kept him to -2 under before dropping away. His new putter seems to be proving a great help towards his game on the greens (which is usually perfect here) and his quiet performances without playing badly this year suggest a big charge for the title this year; His trashing of Woods in the last round was arguably the performance of the year.

Mickelson would be my best bet amongst the top rated players but there’s no questioning that there’s value to be found – four of the last 5 winners came into the week in three figures – and there seems to be a quietly strong case available for backing Bo Van Pelt (pictured) each/way at 80/1 with Paddy Power, who will go each/way for the first six places at Augusta.

Further reading suggests that the 36 year old has often struggled to realise his full potential but two eagles late on saw him go eighth last year on just his second Masters start and his last four strokeplay starts have all brought top tens, making it 16 in the last two years and his big driving distance – he’s ranked 23^rd on the PGA tour this season – is a big comfort given the test of driving that Augusta provides.

Even if he’s not upto the test of winning, you can back him for a top 10 finish at 6’s, and a top 20 finish at 2/1, both of which could end upto be very advantageous positions if he makes a better start than he did last year. Also tempting is the 4/5 on him to beat Ian Poulter, but even better is the evens on him to beat Jim Furyk, who is miles behind on driving capability.

Back to the more fancied contenders, and Justin Rose – who has never finished worse than 40^th in his previous six starts at the Masters and comes here with not only an impressive US record of 4 wins in the USA coming in the last two and a half seasons, but a record around here which sees him having a lowest finish of 40^th – and he was 11^th last year, which bodes well for a big show on what’s now his 7^th visit. 30/1 pays well for each/way proposes but the 5/6 about him finishing in the top 20 is screaming to be backed – it would have paid out on 3 of his last 4 visits to the course.  Also interesting is the 22/1 about him leading after the first round –As  Steven Rawlings explains, in six of his Masters efforts he’s led the field after day 1 on three occasions – and you can get  5 places about him leading after day 1 at a ¼ the odds, which seems generous based on purely stats, while he should have the short game to beat Bubba Watson, the experience to beat Keegan Bradley, and the outright class to beat Steve Stricker; The treble seems a decent piece of business.

                                                                                                                                                                             

The incredible thing is that none of the players discussed in detail are actually even the world No.1 – an honour currently bestowed upon Luke Donald, who comes here as the best player in the world thanks to 5 wins in the last 14 months, including an impressive show of class when winning the Transitions Championship to take back the World No.1 ranking that he’d lost briefly to Rory McIlroy.

His course form (read most recent as left) - 4/mc/38/mc/10 –doesn’t look that inspiring but there’s something promising about his recent form (he now has his first WGC title and victory in the European Tour's flagship event) coming into the back of this, and his fourth last year was made even more impressive by the fact that he dropped his tee shot into the water at 12. He’s placed twice in his 5 tries and although he’s sometimes hindered by a lack of power according to further reading, he ranked first in putting average last year and might be reaching his peak in terms of mental preparation for a tilt at his first green jacket.

KJ Choi is another one of the consistent and classy course specialists – his last 5 appearances read 8/4/mc/41/27 – who looks big value if things drop right for him overall, although the best bet if for him to beat Webb Simpson over 72 holes; Simpson may be the most improved player on the tour but the appalling record of Masters debutants means he’s dying to be taken on with a player of such class, and while Choi’s not been in the best of form this year, he’s clearly building for a charge at the Green Jacket.; The 6/4 about him being the Top Asian’s also good value.

Of the others on the shortlist, Hunter Mahan has been in exceptional form but I just feel that there’s more solidity with Mickelson and the English Challenge of Donald & Rose can boast form that’s at least as good,  Schawrtzel will have his challenge but I’m just more excited about others at the moment; McDowell and Kaymer are there out of respect but they’ve missed 7 cuts in eight attempts, while Zach Johnson’s best effort since winning in 2007 in 20^th place and he’s missed the cut twice too. I’ve got plenty of time for many others but the portfolio’s full enough as it is!

Good luck with everything over the next four days and if you have any feedback you want to give then contact @KeejayOV

Advice 

Good luck with everything over the next four days and if you have any feedback you want to give then contact @KeejayOV

Advice - Outright

3.5 pts each/way Phil Mickleson (11/1 Paddy Power)

2 pts each/way Bo Van Pelt (70/1 Boylesports)

 1 pt each/way Justin Rose (30/1 Boylesports)

1 pt each/way Luke Donald (14/1 Boylesports)

Place Finishes

10 pts Phil Mickleson top 10 finish (evs Paddy Power)

5 pts Justin Rose top 20 (5/6 Coral)

2 pts Bo Van Pelt top 10 finish (6/1 Betfred)

7 pts Bo Van Pelt top 20 finish (7/4 Skybet)

Match Bets

9 pts Bo Van Pelt to beat Jim Furyk over 72 holes (4/5 Bet365)

3 pts Justin Rose to beat Bubba Watson, Keegan Bradley, and Steve Stricker (6.09 general)

2 pts KJ Choi to beat Webb Simpson (10/11 Ladbrokes)

Group Betting

1 pt Bo Van Pelt to win Bet365’s Group E (16/5 Bet365)

Top categories

4 pts KJ Choi top Asian (6/4 general)

Other


1 pt each/way Justin Rose Round 1 Leader (22/1 Sportingbet) 

Sri Lanka v England - 2nd Test Preview

England have lost their last 4 matches in Asia without making it to 5 days and the 15/8 about Sri Lanka deposing them from the No.1 ranking in World test cricket seems to be very generous on not just the evidence of their first test defeat in Galle, but also their three defeats in the UAE.

England have always struggled against spin in the Southern continent, but what’s been notable this year has been their losses in the game changing moments – a lack of the killer instinct, for want of a better phrase; Their dreadful collapse in Abu Dhabi followed by a rare slip up in the bowling department being just two examples, while Monty Panesar’s dropped catches proved crucial in their first test defeat here.

 

That let in Mahela Jayawerdene’s 180 – the eventual difference between the two teams – but bookmakers seem to have gone overboard in closing the margins between the two teams and if this is to be an each of two contest – the kind which usually sees 5/6 offered about a pair of evenly matched outcomes – then the bet has to be Sri Lanka at 15/8.

England touched odds on at one point in the first test but a lack of control after the dismissals of Matt Prior and Jonathan Trott – England’s two best players during the second innings – was represented by a loss of 5 wickets for just 12 runs, which was the latest in a series of collapses in the Test arena for Duncan Fletcher’s side.

All of those occasions saw England get into positions where they could have avoided defeat or won the match at one point or another – but eventually the spin which has claimed 66 English wickets in 2012 wore them down at one point or another and the same thing could well happen again.

The main pattern of England tests since the turn of the year seems to be very aptly explained by Betting Zone’s Dave Tickner here; Sterling work from the bowlers followed by clueless capitulation from the batsmen.

Sri Lanka had won only once in 18 tests before beating England last week (looking ordinary at the best of times) but confidence will undoubtedly be raised by their victory last week and they’ve got a fantastic record in Colombo – they’ve beaten South Africa, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh twice in their last 6 tests – and with England still not handling the pitches or the spin here, the hosts look an obvious bet at a rather big price.

Advice

4 pts Sri Lanka (15/8 general)