I’ll say it before, and I’ll say it again – Of the now 62 quarter
finals played during the Heineken Cup, only 14 have been won by the away team,
and the fact that Munster Rugby provide 6 of those wins is probably most of the
reason behind their odds on price of 2/5 for their blockbuster quarter final
tie against rivals Ulster at Thomond Park.
Unbeaten in this year’s competition, there’s only been one
meeting between the two this season but the 33-17 win for Ulster came at
Ravenhill and Munster were without several first name Irish internationals,
something compounded by the fact that the hosts had just a 4 day turnaround
from their battle with Leinster and decided to target the second game with
their full squad.
As far the Heineken Cup’s concerned Munster may be unbeaten
in this year’s competition but there’s nothing between them on the best of form
in Europe and domestically, something reflected in the fact that there’s just a
point between them domestically.
Nothing can be taken away from their pool stage crusade
though. Wins against Northampton and Castres from the boot of Ronan O’Gara were
magical moments while no side has been as impressive during the pool stages in
victory as they had been when trashing Munster in England to reach the quarters
with a home seeding; Such was their margin of victory, it had people
questioning the State of the Nations more than a month before the start of the
6 Nations.
Ulster had the rugby scholars doing the same thing when they
pummelled Leicester – fresh from beating off Wasps - 41-7 to maintain a winning
streak at home that has now lasted 3 years, and they come here on a run of 7
wins from their last 8 matches with an average winning margin of 14 points. The priceless Stephen Ferris has passed the necessary
fitness tests but it’s not all about the grunt with such names like Terblanche,
Trimble, Wallace, Humphreys and Piennaar it’s safe to assume that the disparity
in prices between the two is wrong.
A handicap start of 7 points for the away side looks
generous to be frank, but of more interest is the 13/8 on a home win by 1-12 points.
Away from Ravenhill, Ulster have only beaten Aironi, an under strength Edinburgh
and Treviso, while their two defeats in the pool stages came on the road at
Leicester and Clermont albeit by just five and four points respectively (the
latter performance was a particularly worthy one of note and deserves respect).
Munster have won 10 of their 12 games in the Pro 12 by 1-12 points and are able
to call on a much stronger side than when beaten 18-9 by Leinster (no real
shame in itself); 4 of the 7 changes made from that starting 15 are Denis
Healy, Conor Murray, Donnacha Ryan and Paul O’Connell , which should give them
only just enough of an edge to sneak into the semi finals. For some extra
value, the 1-5 winning margin is once again 11/2 with Hills, and worth a poke
given that the two teams are separated by little or nothing.
Advice
2 pts Munster to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Stan James)
1 pt Munster to win by 1-5 points (11/2 Hills)
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