The first Scottish side to make it to the semi-final of the Heineken
Cup, Edinbrugh deserve huge credit for their big achievements in dumping out
the 4 time winners Toulouse, but a trip
to Ulster might just prove beyond them – even if only just.
Michael Bradley’s side have struggled in the Rabo Direct
Pro12 with an appalling 5 wins from 12 games but they’re a different beast in
the Heineken Cup and their record of Five out of six wins in a pool also
featuring Cardiff Blues, London Irish and Racing-Metro is a record that stands
up the closest scrutiny, while their win over Toulouse was a triumph in mixing
set piece competence with moments of attacking flair, as Toulouse never truly looked
like winning once going behind and scored most of their points during the
period when Edinbrugh were down to 13 men.
A large part of their league form – which is admittedly
dismal – has been down to Scotland taking the large part of their first team,
which includes Mike Blair, Greig Laidlaw (below left), Ross Rennie, Allan Jacobsen and Ross
Ford, and unlike the big three Irish provinces, they may not have had the squad
to back it up thanks to a lack of funding, apart from the likes of say,
Clermont or Toulouse.
Their trip to Ulster is a new and different challenge
though. Beaten only twice in the Pool Stages (and that on the road to fellow
semi-finalists Clermont and current Aviva Premiership favourites Leicester
Tigers) Brian McLaughlin’ side were astonishing when winning at rivals Munster –
becoming only the third team to win at Thormond Park in European competition.
At the forefront of their win there was not only the
lightning fast start they made but the astonishing defensive effort made after
they went 19-0 up in defence and also at the breakdown, where they outfought
the likes of Paul O’Connell and Donnacha Ryan before just suffocating the home
attack at the crucial time – the 15 minute period after half time when Muster
exerted most of their pressure.
Judged by McLaughlin’s selection of Paddy Jackson at
fly-half a different plan is in store today but the strength at the ruck is likely
to be crucial in restraining Edinbrugh’s big runners on and off the ball and
also across the gainline – the likes of Ross Rennie, David Denton, and Netani
Talei will all need to be slowed down significantly if fears of an upset are to be quashed – but
they have the experience, nous, and attacking power through the likes of Ruan
Piennar Stefan Terblanche, Andrew Trimble, Craig Gilroy (pictured) Darren Cave and Paddy Wallace to
sneak out a win here.
Many will be tempted by a handicap of -6 points for the home
side being offered by Stan James given the gap between them in the Pro 12 but
the best way to side with the home side seems to be for a win by 1-12 points.
Edinbrugh have been beaten by 22 points in both of the fixtures this season but
all of their efforts this season have focused purely on Europe and they should
push the home side all the way if going down valiantly at this stage; Consider
backing the underdogs with an 8 point start too
as they should be very competitive.
Advice
3 pts Ulster to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)
No comments:
Post a Comment