Of 60 Heineken Cup quarter finals only 14 teams have won
without home advantage but 4 time winners Toulouse are one of only two sides to
do so twice and they can sneak into the semi-finals once again with victory at
a sell-out Murrayfield.
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One of the few sides who have the nerve to win away in
Europe at top teams, Le Tecfece managed to scrape past Biarritz in last year’s
quarter final with the help of a dramatic Yannick Nyanga try, made all the more
impressive by the fact that they played without Frederic Michalak, Byron
Kelleher & Thierry Dusautoir (left), and the fact that they’d lost 17 unanswered points
in the second half through the boot of Dimitri Yachvilli. It’s true they lost
their semi final but that was against eventual winner Leinster and they need
needed They’d also previously stopped Harlequins unbeaten run of 14 straight
wins with a uber clinical performance to take all the points away from the
Stoop, and when they got beaten in the reverse fixture Luke McAlister missed
three easy penalties in the first 20 minutes and Vincent Clerc had a try ruled
out for a forward pass. There’s the slight worry about their defeat against
Gloucester in the final round of group games but defensive errors – notably by
their top Tryscorer Timonici Manatanvou, who gave the hosts the easiest of
tries on 4 minutes – played a big part in that defeat and the hosts had lost
only two games all season.
It’s almost startling to think that if Harlequins –who had
conditions and a heavy schedule against them – had won at Connaught, then the
French Champions wouldn’t even be here today, but their never say die attitude
and experience (no side has even played or won as many games in this
competition as they have) has seen them through on countless occasions and it’s
exactly what’s needed for this fierce test against an Edinburgh side that is
sure to have put all their preparation into this day.
French call ups to the 6 Nations disrupted their February
and March campaigns in the Top 14 but they still won 3 out of 5 games with the
35 – 5 defeat against Clermont Auvergne being excused on the grounds that the
hosts have won 40 straight games at home, while such a task was always going to
be impossible with their main starts out of the fold, something emphasised by
the fact that nearly all of Clermont Auvergne’s points came from David Skrela.
A shock defeat at relegation minnws Bordeaux could be put down towards Lionel
Beauxis if one wants to be extremely harsh but that should be forgotten now as
they broke an unbeaten streak for the second time this season when beating
Stade Francais infront of 80,000 people for the first time this season in
Paris, and if they can bring that form to the table here, they have the guts
and skill to get through to yet another semi-final.
Hosts Edinbrugh may well be written off by form students but
that would be stupid for two reasons. Firstly, they provide the backbone of the
Scotland side that can be considered unlucky to have gained the Wooden Spoon
despite some terribly slack moments in defence; This is emphasised by the fact
their front row is the same as the one used by Andy Robinson – indeed, nine
Edinburgh players represent the National side.
Secondly, given that Edinburgh will be back in this
completion next year, they have all the time in the world to prepare for this
day ever since the draw was made. The strong ball retention and phase play
notable of Scotland’s best performances in the 6 Nations are notable of
Edinburgh’s 5 wins in this competition so far and they’ll always a carry a huge
threat, so this could be a high scoring game that goes down to the wire. 6/4 is
offered on Toulouse to win by 1-12 points and that looks well worth taking,
along with the 11/2 that they can sneak things out by 1-5.
Advice
4 pts Toulouse to win by 1-12 points (6/4 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Toulouse to win by 1-5 points (11/2 Hills)
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