The phrase “coin toss” is an often used one in sports
betting but it’s really true when describing the last Heineken Cup quarter
final between Saracens and Clermont at Vicarage Road, and it’s hard to find
anything between two richly talented teams – and if that wasn’t enough, a home
semi-final is at stake.
Both sides lie second in their domestic leagues, and both
sides can count on two of the most talented 15’s in European Rugby. The sole survivors from the Aviva Premiership,
Saracens can now call on their midfield powerhouse of Brad Baritt – so crucial
towards England’s 4 wins during the 6 Nations – once again following his
recovery from injury while they’re once again boosted by England scrum-half Richard Wigglesworth making
his first start since October, while Wales prop Rhys Gill also returns to the
side.
That isn’t even counting the presence of England’s new star
Owen Farrell at inside centre while Charlie Hodgson improved as a fly half throughought
the 6 Nations & Mouritz Botha too has improved as a player during that
period. Adding Schalk Burger’s trademark charges towards that line and you have
a side talented enough to play anyone in World Rugby.
Just a shame that they have to come up against Clermont
Auvergne of all teams. With Morgan Parra now fit to start David Skrela has a
player of equal ability in their half back pairing while Wesley Fofana – France’s
biggest running threat in the 6 Nations before he switched out to the Wing for
their defeat to Wales – meets up with his inside centre Aurelien Rougerie,
below his best on the International stage but still a force to be dealt with in
this sphere.
Lineout king Julien Bonnaire is needed to pressure a side
that won all 14 lineouts on their own throw while taking two from Harlequins at
Wembley last weekend, and just to
underline the strength in depth they have, Jean-Marcel Buttin, Vincent Debaty
& Julien Pierre are all on the bench.
This should lead to a high scoring game but the reality may
be something different. Saracens pride themselves on defence and have conceded
a maximum of 30 points in the Premiership this year; That being when away at
Northampton in mid-season. Clermont are conceding just 13 points a game on
average and come into this game on a great run of form, with just 1 defeat in
their last 11; That came against Biarritz on the road last time.
How to split the two sides? With little more than a point
likely to be between them, the home advantage has to be the call. Saracens were
beaten twice by Clermont last year but they’re a much better side now and
despite their defeat against Harlequins at Wembley last time, they’ll feel
confident enough about their chances infront of their own crowd. Clermont
present a huge challenge for any side but they’ve lost by four and five points
on the road respectively this year in Europe and have lost three quarter finals
on road in this competition.
Advice
1 pt Saracens to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)
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