DISCLAIMER – "All
advice and tips in this preview– even those based on real tipster’s advice –-
are entirely fictional. All research has been written by someone who has never
played golf in any form ……..hastily. The following preview contains only
recommended advice and due to its content it should not be viewed by
anyone."
Sadly I don’t know my golf quite well enough to write a
masters preview – Although you can rest assured that I’ll be watching closely –
but there are a few pieces of advice that I can offer.
One is to read this fantastic trends based piece courtesy of
Tim Larden (and his guest blogger the Hearty Ploughman) – which gives a Craig
Thake/Paul Jones style analysis of the trends which have given us the last 20 winners of this tournament.
Next is to go and see how those opinions – if the above
cases aren’t strong enough – are backed up by the excellent Betting.Betfair
(Steven Rawlings, Romilly Evans, Andrew French ,Mike Norman, Paul Krishnamurty) & Sportinglife’s
sister website Betting Zone (David John, Dave Tindall) and even if you’re not convinced
after that, then there’s the Racing Post’s superb guide with the legenadry
Steve Palmer and Jeremy Champan.
My personal shortlist right now consists of; Mickelson, Van
Pelt, Rose, Donald, Choi, Mahan, Immelman, Schwartzel, McDowell, Johnson and
Kaymer – I can’t have Woods or McIlroy at such short prices for such a big
event.
In any case, Woods was thrashed in relative terms by Phil
Mickelson (left) at Pebble Beach, where Mickelson gave his old rival a two-shot lead
at the start and beat him by nine shots with a spectacular round of 64. At a general
12/1, along with evens for a top 10 finish, he represents top value once again
despite his blowout last year, having romped home at Redstone before flopping
into 24th last year after a slow opening round – he missed more than
a few good opportunities during his 2 under par 70 and could never claw his way
back into things after an erratic second round.
Mickelson would be my best bet amongst the top rated players
but there’s no questioning that there’s value to be found – four of the last 5
winners came into the week in three figures – and there seems to be a quietly
strong case available for backing Bo Van Pelt (pictured) each/way at 80/1 with Paddy
Power, who will go each/way for the first six places at Augusta.
Back to the more fancied contenders, and Justin Rose – who has
never finished worse than 40th in his previous six starts at the
Masters and comes here with not only an impressive US record of 4 wins in the
USA coming in the last two and a half seasons, but a record around here which
sees him having a lowest finish of 40th – and he was 11th
last year, which bodes well for a big show on what’s now his 7th
visit. 30/1 pays well for each/way proposes but the 5/6 about him finishing in
the top 20 is screaming to be backed – it would have paid out on 3 of his last
4 visits to the course. Also interesting
is the 22/1 about him leading after the first round –As Steven Rawlings explains, in six of his
Masters efforts he’s led the field after day 1 on three occasions – and you can
get 5 places about him leading after day
1 at a ¼ the odds, which seems generous based on purely stats, while he should
have the short game to beat Bubba Watson, the experience to beat Keegan
Bradley, and the outright class to beat Steve Stricker; The treble seems a
decent piece of business.
Other
1 pt each/way Justin Rose Round 1 Leader (22/1 Sportingbet)
Rory McIlroy entered the final round here 12 months ago with
a four-shot lead and then proceeded to shoot a shocking round of 80 after some
terrible early mistakes. Given the serious need for course form at Augusta it
would be easy to throw him out of calculations completely but that would be
foolish in the extreme; He clearly blew away whatever mental block he was
having when winning the US Open in sensational style at Congressional, doing
what had looked likely for several days at Augusta last year.
He has the talent to romp home in this event with his eyes
closed if he turns up on his game but a price of just 9/1 – it’s as short as
11/2 in places – is unbackable for such an event. Woods for me has the same
issue; Price.
The whole reason behind him being favourite would be that he’s
“back” following his easy win – his first in 30 months – at Bay Hill last time
out. We know he’s go the tournament record here – he own four green jackets –
and the talent – but this event has so many pitfalls that it’s impossible to
recommend him properly, with the added factor that his closest rival at Bay
Hill was Graeme McDowell, himself a good player but a reflection on how much
deeper this field will be. The best you can get about him is 11/2 and in an
event such as this, that’s really just best left.
In any case, Woods was thrashed in relative terms by Phil
Mickelson (left) at Pebble Beach, where Mickelson gave his old rival a two-shot lead
at the start and beat him by nine shots with a spectacular round of 64. At a general
12/1, along with evens for a top 10 finish, he represents top value once again
despite his blowout last year, having romped home at Redstone before flopping
into 24th last year after a slow opening round – he missed more than
a few good opportunities during his 2 under par 70 and could never claw his way
back into things after an erratic second round.
Forgetting that, he has won three of the last eight
tournaments and would have been a lot closer had it not been for several bogeys
last year which kept him to -2 under before dropping away. His new putter seems
to be proving a great help towards his game on the greens (which is usually
perfect here) and his quiet performances without playing badly this year
suggest a big charge for the title this year; His trashing of Woods in the last
round was arguably the performance of the year.
Mickelson would be my best bet amongst the top rated players
but there’s no questioning that there’s value to be found – four of the last 5
winners came into the week in three figures – and there seems to be a quietly
strong case available for backing Bo Van Pelt (pictured) each/way at 80/1 with Paddy
Power, who will go each/way for the first six places at Augusta.
Further reading suggests that the 36 year old has often
struggled to realise his full potential but two eagles late on saw him go
eighth last year on just his second Masters start and his last four strokeplay
starts have all brought top tens, making it 16 in the last two years and his
big driving distance – he’s ranked 23rd on the PGA tour this season –
is a big comfort given the test of driving that Augusta provides.
Even if he’s not upto the test of winning, you can back him
for a top 10 finish at 6’s, and a top 20 finish at 2/1, both of which could end
upto be very advantageous positions if he makes a better start than he did last
year. Also tempting is the 4/5 on him to beat Ian Poulter, but even better is
the evens on him to beat Jim Furyk, who is miles behind on driving capability.
Back to the more fancied contenders, and Justin Rose – who has
never finished worse than 40th in his previous six starts at the
Masters and comes here with not only an impressive US record of 4 wins in the
USA coming in the last two and a half seasons, but a record around here which
sees him having a lowest finish of 40th – and he was 11th
last year, which bodes well for a big show on what’s now his 7th
visit. 30/1 pays well for each/way proposes but the 5/6 about him finishing in
the top 20 is screaming to be backed – it would have paid out on 3 of his last
4 visits to the course. Also interesting
is the 22/1 about him leading after the first round –As Steven Rawlings explains, in six of his
Masters efforts he’s led the field after day 1 on three occasions – and you can
get 5 places about him leading after day
1 at a ¼ the odds, which seems generous based on purely stats, while he should
have the short game to beat Bubba Watson, the experience to beat Keegan
Bradley, and the outright class to beat Steve Stricker; The treble seems a
decent piece of business.
The incredible thing is that none
of the players discussed in detail are actually even the world No.1 – an honour
currently bestowed upon Luke Donald, who comes here as the best player in the
world thanks to 5 wins in the last 14 months, including an impressive show of
class when winning the Transitions Championship to take back the World No.1
ranking that he’d lost briefly to Rory McIlroy.
His course form (read most recent
as left) - 4/mc/38/mc/10 –doesn’t look that inspiring but there’s something promising
about his recent form (he now has his first WGC title and victory in the
European Tour's flagship event) coming into the back of this, and his fourth
last year was made even more impressive by the fact that he dropped his tee shot
into the water at 12. He’s placed twice in his 5 tries and although he’s sometimes
hindered by a lack of power according to further reading, he ranked first in
putting average last year and might be reaching his peak in terms of mental preparation
for a tilt at his first green jacket.
KJ Choi is another one of the consistent
and classy course specialists – his last 5 appearances read 8/4/mc/41/27 – who looks
big value if things drop right for him overall, although the best bet if for
him to beat Webb Simpson over 72 holes; Simpson may be the most improved player
on the tour but the appalling record of Masters debutants means he’s dying to
be taken on with a player of such class, and while Choi’s not been in the best
of form this year, he’s clearly building for a charge at the Green Jacket.; The
6/4 about him being the Top Asian’s also good value.
Of the others on the shortlist,
Hunter Mahan has been in exceptional form but I just feel that there’s more solidity
with Mickelson and the English Challenge of Donald & Rose can boast form
that’s at least as good, Schawrtzel will
have his challenge but I’m just more excited about others at the moment;
McDowell and Kaymer are there out of respect but they’ve missed 7 cuts in eight
attempts, while Zach Johnson’s best effort since winning in 2007 in 20th
place and he’s missed the cut twice too. I’ve got plenty of time for many
others but the portfolio’s full enough as it is!
Good luck with everything over
the next four days and if you have any feedback you want to give then contact
@KeejayOV
Advice
Good luck with everything over
the next four days and if you have any feedback you want to give then contact @KeejayOV
Advice - Outright
3.5 pts each/way Phil Mickleson
(11/1 Paddy Power)
2 pts each/way Bo Van Pelt (70/1
Boylesports)
1 pt each/way Justin Rose (30/1 Boylesports)
1 pt each/way Luke Donald (14/1
Boylesports)
Place Finishes
10 pts Phil Mickleson top 10
finish (evs Paddy Power)
5 pts Justin Rose top 20 (5/6
Coral)
2 pts Bo Van Pelt top 10 finish
(6/1 Betfred)
7 pts Bo Van Pelt top 20 finish (7/4
Skybet)
Match Bets
9 pts Bo Van Pelt to beat Jim
Furyk over 72 holes (4/5 Bet365)
3 pts Justin Rose to beat Bubba
Watson, Keegan Bradley, and Steve Stricker (6.09 general)
2 pts KJ Choi to beat Webb
Simpson (10/11 Ladbrokes)
Group Betting
1 pt Bo Van Pelt to win Bet365’s
Group E (16/5 Bet365)
Top categories
4 pts KJ Choi top Asian (6/4
general)
Other
1 pt each/way Justin Rose Round 1 Leader (22/1 Sportingbet)
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