Let me throw a quick hypothetical your way. Two teams (let’s
say any given sport) are facing each-other in a European semi – final. Both
have top quality players in both attack and defence. Both come here top (one
joint) of their domestic leagues and were deeply impressive winners of their quarter
finals. But consider this; The home side are unbeaten in 42 matches on their
own turf in an affair where both sides are offered at even money.
That’s the situation regarding
today’s semi-final between Clermont and Leinster, and the home side look close
to maximum bet value based not only on the home record that they can boast of
but also the impression they left when destroying Saracens at Vicarage Road in
the quarter finals, which underlined the depth of their squad to such an extent
that many of the UK’s top Rugby journalists immediately questioned the effect
that the salary cap was having on the Aviva Premiership.
Leinster lead 4-1 on head to head match stats but the points
total between the two in those 5 games reads 101-85 & 8-7 in tries, while
fly half Brock James – so impressive when Clermont destroyed Saracens – missed several
excellent drop goal and penalty attempts before Leinster snuck through 29-28. The last team to beat Leinster in this
competition, Clermont had earned an unfair reputation as bottlers in their domestic
league after several defeats in the Top 14 final but after their 2010 success nobody
doubts them now and they look ready to make the step up to the Heineken Cup
final glory.
Clermont have been beaten just once in all competitions
since the beginning of December last year, which was a one point loss at
Biarritz – once looking like relegation fodder before a comeback run which has
seen them make it to the Challenge Cup final – their only slip up.
Facing champions Leinster is as tough a task as they could
have asked for here but the head to head record shows that there’s little
between the teams and in that situation, the home advantage could prove crucial
as it always does when two major European names meet. This season Clermont lost
only 2 pool games – both defeats coming at Ulster (16-11) and Leicester (23-19)
– but won those reverse fixtures 30-12 and 19-15.
Their star studded back division of Aurelien Rougerie – who’s
bounced back from an appalling 6 Nations in fine style over the past 2/3 weeks
- Morgan Parra, Wesley Fofana and Julien Malzieu - along with Welsh star Lee
Byrne and All Black Sitiveni Sivivatu, is one of few that can pose a real threat to
Leinster’s defence – the tightest in the Pro 12 going by points conceded, while
it was impossible not to be impressed by the way they repelled wave after wave
of Saracens attacks – it should be remembered that the England team who
finished second in the 6 Nations had the bulk of their talent given by Saracens
– and those skills are likely to be at a premium today against Leinster’s
powerful centres and backline.
The defending Champions and Runaway Pro 12 winners were
hugely impressive when wiping aside Cardiff in the quarters but the Blues were
in no shape to play Leinster after being thrashed by Cardiff (with Gavin Henson’s
infamous departure coming on the same flight after). They still deserve the
utmost respect having beaten finalists Ulster at Ravenhill last week (a feat
that’s as good as any in European Rugby) but today the only team I want to be
with is Clermont. With the two teams so evenly matched, the 1-5 point winning
margin also looks like good value while covering the stakes for a draw/Clermont
result could pay off.
Advice
5 pts Clermont Auvergne to make final (4/5 Paddy Power)
2 pts Clermont to win by 1-5 points (5/1 Blue Sq, 888Sport)
1 pt Draw (18/1 general)
1 pt Draw/Clermont (22/1 general)
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