They’re the highest ranked team in Europe, and two time
winners and holders Leinster are just 1/7 to make the semi-finals of the
Heineken Cup for the sixth time, with the out o form Cardiff Blues being
dismissed ahead of their visit to Dublin.
Joe Schmidt’s Leinster team have been fully deserving of
their number one ranking in Europe, suffering just 3 defeats in their last 15
games across all competitions, with a home defeat against second placed Ospreys
coming as a surprise despite the Welsh clubs recent resurgence towards second
in the Pro 12.
Joe Schmidt’s Leinster team have been fully deserving of
their number one ranking in Europe, suffering just 3 defeats in their last 15
games across all competitions, with a home defeat against second placed Ospreys
coming as a surprise despite the Welsh clubs recent resurgence towards second
in the Pro 12.
Only Montpellier have come close to stopping Leinster in his
year’s Heineken Cup and that was in France when they’d gone in at the break
13-6 down, but since then it’s been plain sailing in terms of results – at least
at home – with no side getting within 20 points of the Heineken Cup holders in
Dubin.
It’s a well-used piece of rhetoric but it’s well worth
repeating the fact that only 14 teams out of 60 have won a quarter final away
from home in the Heineken Cup and Leinster have won three quarter finals at
home, which contrasts with a record of three defeats at this stage for the
Blues themselves.
Cardiff themselves aren’t in the best of form, with just one
win from their last 5 games and that coming against Benneton Treviso , and they
got absolutely smashed by Glasgow despite having a strong side available for
call up, and they’ve since lost two of their to inside centre options – the one
place you do not want to be weak against Leinster with Brian O’Driscoll and
Gordon D’Arcy in the ranks.
One suspects that Gavin Henson won’t be missed after his
general talent wasting, but the absence of Jamie Roberts with a knee injury is
catastrophic for their chances even with replacement Casey Laulala Munster
bound.
They’ve got talent in the wings such as Alex Cuthbert and
Marytn Williamson is sure to be fired up on what could (should according to the
bookies) be his last appearance in the Heineken Cup but it’s impossible to see Cardiff
taking something from this trip even if they do take a siege mentality into
this game with Leinster’s form, class and home record in this competition.
The general handicap offered is something around about the -15
mark and that would have been passed in all of Leinster’s home wins this year
in the Heineken Cup, and their only Pro 12 meeting. They’re a prolific side
after the break though, with twice as many tries in the second half compared to
first in this seasons Pro12 (25 v 13) while Cardiff’s average in the League
this season in the second half is actually -3 points, which gives the second half
no draw handicap of -6.5 (Leinster must win by 7 or more for the bet to win) a
lot of appeal.
If one was to be expecting general dominance, then the 4/5
offered by Bet365 on Leinster winning both halves has to be considered
seriously. In all 3 ties played at the RDS this season – the Aviva will be even
more daunting – they’ve done so and that has proven to be the case on 10
occasions in the Aviva from 19 – and at the price it looks well worth a play.
Advice
2 pts Leinster to win both halves (4/5 Bet365)
1 pt Leinster -6.5 on 2nd half no draw H’cap (4/5
Betfred)
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