Malaysian Grand Prix Preview 2012

The phrase “It’s better late than never” comes to mind for a lot of things on the Vic Page but it’s not too late to join in the F1 party, starting with the Malaysian Grand Prix.

This year’s racing looks as competitive as ever – something which hopefully I’ll come to in a later post with more depth – but the results of Melbourne have already given us some fairly clear trends. McLaren seem to be the fastest cars overall, blitzing the qualifying sessions with two front row lockouts, and also gaining a 1-3 in the race, while Red Bull seem to be second best, coming from fifth and sixth for third and fourth respectively, although much kinder on their tyres and also much better over the longer haul than for qualifying.

Mercedes, who looked so good in pre-season testing, are as quick as anyone on the field but seemed to struggle seriously from tyre wear in the latter stages of Melbourne, while Lotus/Renault are also able to lay up with the best of the field.

Lewis Hamilton’s second pole of the season means the best you’ll get about him is 5/4 with Skybet but team mate Jenson Button is just one place away and looks as aswell placed as anyone to strike, much like he did in Melbourne after a superb first lap and at 2/1 he offers much more value than his team mate.

It’s often been said that Hamilton is the faster of the two over a straight lap but that Button on occasions has been the better race driver with his excellent strategy and tyre maintenance. It’s true that he might have been a little lucky with how the race unfolded from the front – Hamilton making his pit stop one lap later than Button meant that he came out behind Perez, meaning that it took 4 laps for him to pass Perez, while Button extended his lead to 10 seconds in the extending period. But that was also down to superior strategy and race speed, and with possible rain forecast as well for the race, the conditions seem to be perfect for Jenson to make it 2-2.

Michael Schumacher did well in qualifying and seemed sure of second before Button flew late, so it’s surprising to see him as big at 16/1 with Bet Victor, although the reason for that – a struggle to cope with tyre degradation throughought the race – is a worry for those who are backing him, although a podium price of 9/4 is very tempting.

The Red Bulls of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel were a touch slower than anyone expected based on the dominance of last year, but they were as good as anybody in race conditions and the durability of their tyres over long stints – combined with obvious driver skills and the raw pace they still retain – makes them a potential value option from relatively decent grid positions. Mark Webber made up tons of ground after a poor first lap in Australia but the grid demotion of Kimi Rakkionen means Sebastian Vettel moves up a spot and it’s not hard to see him make a big challenge today with the long sweeping corners here likely to help him make a sustained challenge, along with the fact that he starts with hard tyres. The Red Bull’s already shown itself to be kind on tyres and that, combined with a long stint strategy, should see him make a big challenge for the podium, with the 11/8 on offer from Bet Victor that he wins their Group A also worth taking – to do this he has to beat Michael Schumacher, Nico Rosberg, and team mate Mark Webber, and he looks capable of making the jump above his team mate and fellow German – it offers better value than the odds against given for a podium.

 

The above strategy suggested that those who can go for long stints on tyre friendly cars will be rewarded, much like Pastor Maldonado was in Melbourne before a cruel late mistake caused him to crash on the last lap. He was gunning for sixth and pushing Alonso hard at the time and my suspicion is that if he had settled he’d have earned Williams more points there than they had during the whole of last season. He looked set to go to Q3 again but running well wide on turn 11 screwed up his challenge for the race and even then he was still unlucky not to get through, with the pace of both Mercedes taking him out late on with flying laps. The 11/10 for him to get into the points seems on the generous side based on that, while you can get 6/11 on him beating Nico Hulkenberg and Bruno Senna with Bwin – the double makes for 2.4 with Bwin, which is also worth taking, as is the 11/8 on him beating Perez and Massa.

Keep an eye out for the Lotus pair of Romain Grosjean and Kimi Raikkonen, especially the latter who should have come fifth instead tenth given the penalty he incurred for a gearbox change, but there’s no value from a betting perspective in either driver tomorrow despite their obvious pace.

Advice

3 pts Jenson Button (2/1 general)

2 pts Sebastian Vettel to win Bet Victor’s Group A (11/8 Bet Victor)

7.5 pts Pastor Maldonado points finish (11/10 general)

3 pts Pastor Maldonaldo to win Bet365’s Group C (11/8 Bet365)

2 pts Pastor Maldonado to beat Burno Senna & Nick Hulkenberg (2.4 Bwin) 

6 Nations 2012 - England (8/11) v Ireland (29/20)

Part of betting – and betting previews – is being proven well and truly wrong, so with this I doff my cap towards England and Stuart Lancaster, who went from fourth or fifth favourites for this tournament to one of only two teams that can win it.

I don’t think they will – Wales look to have a cast iron opportunity to beat France in any case, not forgetting the massive turnaround that’s needed in points when they play Ireland at Twickenham today – but considering where they were just 6 months ago it’s massive that they could essentially be the second best side in Europe.

They could arguably have lost the first two games quite easily – Scotland’s three linebreaks went wrong at the last stage while Italy missed two very kickable penalties – but came roaring back against Wales, making Gatland’s side work as hard as any team has during this whole championship with a ferocious display to go down fighting 19-12, a game they could even have drawn if they’d been given a last minute try (the Conversion for Toby Flood wasn’t an easy one)

The strong tackling defence that has so often been a feature of the greatest England sides has been brought right back into life by Stuart Lancaster – put in as the stand in coach following Martin Johnston’s controversial exit after over conservative tactics didn’t  work according to the experts who lambasted England following their loss to France.

That all seems a long time away after their stunning win against France last weekend, playing with a width and flair that many complained they hadn’t seen for too long from an England side. Tom Croft, Ben Morgan and Manu Tuilangi were all magnificent running from deep against the French and the same’s expected today.

 

That may not even be the best thing about England’s new look team. Owen Farrell was most famous for his Premiership winning exploits with Leicester before this season but a magnificent record which sees him with only 3 kicks at goal all tournament, along with several outstanding defensive tackles tracking back, like his hit on Imanol Harindoquy last weekend when the French were pushing for a late winner.

It’s that game which gives us the best link between England and Ireland, with Declan Kidney’s side (being less than ten points away from a Grand Slam attempt – how Stepehen Ferris must have felt after the opening weekend) having led 17-6 before having their advantage clawed back late on.

After seeing that it’s no surprise that the two teams are nearly inseparable in the betting market, with a best price of 8/11 England matched up against Hills’s offer of 21/20 for their rivals. Those who want to get with the home side should be looking only at the 1-12 winning margin – a straight line through France says that there’s 2 points between the side at best – while the 9/2 that a win is eeked out by 1-15 points should also be of interest.

While that’s tempting, there are some warning signs. Ireland have won seven of the last eight clashes with England, scored more than double England’s tries (although they’ve been lucky to do so thanks to an easy second half against Italy), and have started quickly with a try in the 1^st half in each of the four games before dropping off slightly in the second half.

They’re a hell of a hard side to get through though and an interesting bet is under 39 points. That mark hasn’t been breached in two of the last 3 games between the two and given how no team has come to Twickenham and scored more than 20 points apart from South Africa and New Zealand since 2009, it might prove to be value, with both teams priding themselves on defensive capability.

Advice

2 pts under 39 points (5/6 general)

6 Nations - Wales (2/5) v France (11/4)

Wales’s rise over the past two years has been meteoric and they can gain revenge over France and their third Grand Slam in eight seasons in the process today at the Millenium Stadium in style.

Wales’s bad record against France – they’ve won just two of the last twelve meetings – manifested itself in the worst possible fashion when they went down by a single point in last year’s World Cup semi-final but that was a game that they should have won while playing with 14 men for 61 minutes (often when Wales are seen at their weakest, as Betting.Betfair’s Geoffrey Riddle’s stats zone shows us Wales have scored six points and conceded eight when down to 14 men in their four matches this season) with many kickable penalties going wide.

Head to head records have been ripped up this tournament – France themselves had an excellent record and against Ireland and England on their own patch before those two disappointing games – and Wales should have won their World Cup encounter with ease.

Since then the two teams have gone in vastly different directions. Gatland’s Wales may have lost to Australia twice but are unbeaten since using a variety of different tactics to gain successes that looked very unlikely at different times. They were down with less than 10 minutes to go against both Ireland and England away but found a way to come through on both occasions, launching excellent counter attacks which gave them tight wins. That’s testament to their excellent fitness – a now noted feature of Gatland’s side – but don’t take anything away from their excellent mental sprit or world class backline, which can now boast 7 tries in this tournament.

That squad is now boosted massively by the return of Skipper Sam Warburton, one of the best opensides in World Rugby, and everything looks set fair for their third Grand Slam in eight years today, with the added bonus of the fact that their two wins over France in 12 years both came in Grand Slam seasons.

France have been the disappointments of the whole championship. Tipped for the tournament by this very page in expectations of home wins against Ireland and England, poor attacking, worse defending and missed drop goal attempts from Lionel Beauxis/Francois Tinh Duc have taken the life out of their challenge for the Championship and it’s hard to see them doing any better here. It’s famously said that the enigmatic French can do anything they want when they put their minds towards it – they went from a loss against Tonga towards a 19-12 win against England at the World Cup – but they’ve not threatened to do anything like that this time around and much more is needed in this situation, with Wales possessing the defensive strength and attacking cohesion that England and Ireland did except to a much greater level with the strength they’ve shown so far.

Some will try for the upset and the carrot being dangled (11/4) would be big if France turned up on their game but that’s a cliché these days and a start of just 4 points is beginning to be smashed, although the second half handicap offers better cover – France wilted late on in the two Welsh Grand Slam wins.

France may also be weaker than for the last two games thanks to the 5 changes that Phillipe Saint Andre has made, presumably in the hope of being able to suffocate the game and keep France on the march. However the same tactics didn’t work against England and it’s hard to be totally confident about the personnel used today.

An injury to Vincent Clerc leaves Les Bleus with Florian Fritz (hardly the greatest replacement),Julien Mazieu hasn’t gone on from a promising start against Italy but I’m not sure that Alexis Palisson is any better, Wesley Fofana (the main threat and best thing about France during this championship) has been pushed wide towards the wing, David Attoub replacing Nicolas Mas isn’t a great indicator of any confidence in what has been a misfiring French pack and Lionel Beauxis at ten seems to be an absolute mystery ahead of Trinh – Duc after his awful performance against England and two missed drop goal attempts against France.

The return of Dimitri Yachvilli is timely and if his goal/box kicking should be a major help but one can’t help but think that having Morgan Parra outside him would be a massive help and giving the Welsh ball to run from midfield just seems like suicide based on their tries so far.

If they’re going to be on their game then they’ll need to do it from the off – England, Ireland and Scotland all started with tries against the French – and such a start would leave them reeling and upto 5 points down against a side who have score d7 of their 9 tries after the break and let in just two during the same period.

Advice

5 pts Wales -2.5 on second half handicap (8/11 Bet365)

2 pts Wales -4 (Blue Sq, 888 Sport)

6 Nations - Italy (6/4) v Scotland (8/11)

This always seems to be the Wooden Spoon decider – Italy and Scotland have battled to avoid the Wooden Spoon seven times in the past 12 seasons  -and the choice between either team isn’t very appealing today.

Despite a new coach in Jacques Brunel – a surprising change given the general improvement made over several years by coach Nick Malett – Italy seem to have gone backwards in terms of performance with four straight losses, being unable to find the fluency wanted in their backline despite retaining the considerable grunt upfront that they’ve always been based on.

However second half trashings against France, Ireland and Wales seem to have put them right back in their place at the bottom of the table, with only 3 tries to their name all tournament and just 40 points. Even taking into account they’ve had a terrible fixture list- they’ve played Ireland, Wales and France away from home – they let England back in after leading 12-6 at the interval and had chances to win the game that they blew out late on thanks to Tobias Botes’s two missed kicks at goal.

In any case, it’s desperately hard to argue that Scotland haven’t played the better rugby. Despite being on their worst run of form for eight years few could argue that the level of performance shown by Robinson’s side has risen vastly on last year, with the trio of John Barclay, David Denton and Ross Rennie proving to be an impressive midfield of ball carriers while Stuart Hogg’s try against France may have been the start of a promising carrer for the full back.

The Edinbrugh half back pairing of Greig Laidlaw and Mike Blair have dictated play well enough when allowed the ball if a kicking game ensues they might not be at the total disadvantage that many expect thanks to Italian pack power.

However, they’ve nearly always conspired to lose somehow, messing up two golden chances against England before Charlie Hodgson’s chargedown saw them lose at Murrayfield against England for the first time since 2006, while they will feel aggrieved to have lost against France too given the nature of the two tries they conceded.

Wales looked an impossible task but even then they were better than the defeat and it can’t be impressed enough how badly the two sin binnings cost them – Wales did all their work in the 13 minute gap which saw them down to 14 and then 13 – while they had a try disallowed in that time period. They came out flying in the first 30 minutes against Ireland and were closer than many expected them to be following Richie Gray’s try but toothlessness before the break in defence – which has cost them this championship - put the game out of their reach and the lacklustre performance in the second half has to be a big worry.

It’s negated by the fact that Italy themselves have scored just 9 points in the second half of games, but Scotland were at their worst after the break against the Irish, Welsh and English, which means the game is really best left from an outright perspective. The last two matches between these sides and 3 overall have all come under the 38 points line however, and with Italy having scored just 40 themselves (Scotland only 50) that might offer the best value in a tight game.

Advice

3 pts under 38 points (5/6 general)

6 Nations 2012 - France (4/9) v England (13/5)

If France win this particular episode – the 96^th, to be exact - of Le Crunch then they can still win the 6 Nations if they can pull a shock off against Wales in Cardiff last week, but if current evidence things aren’t going to be that simple for Phillipe Saint Andre’s men.

You can get just 4/9 about the tournament shouts Les Bleus on Sunday with England at 11/4 but if performance is anything to go by then the gap should be much closer. They didn’t do much more than they had to against Italy in Week 1 but they could well have gone down to Scotland had it not been for some lacklustre defending and they were abysmal against the Irish despite clawing their way back into things with 11 unanswered second half points.

The changing of half backs Morgan Parra and François Trinh-Duc suggests that Saint Andre is going to try and control the early exchanges and make big territory but the same plans didn’t work against Ireland – the reason why the changes are being made – while their running from deep with the ball in hand has been unusually poor, which explains why they couldn’t get over the line despite having nearly 60% of the ball and only marginally less territory throughought the game last weekend.

England came in off two poor performances against Wales and made Gatland’s men battle as hard as they’ll ever have to for a win with a 9-6 lead at half time despite being pinned back in their own half for long periods of the game. The rush defence that Ireland employed here just a week ago stopped France in their tracks while providing opportunities through mistakes for their backline.

With France stuck between a rock and a hard place at the moment, England should be confident of trying to stop the French runners in midfield and making things as uncomfortable as they did for Wales at Twickenham,  which will make life very tough for the likes of Fofana (pictured), Rougerie, Clerc, Malzieu and Poitrenaud.

A kicking game will also suit the visitors just fine if Owen Farell can get the time and space he needs while Morgan Parra’s absence may be a negative given that his own kicking had been OK throughought the tournament, although the dropping of Trinh Duc is understandable.

His replacement Juilen Dupuy had his last Test start in 2009 which begs the question of why Dimitri Yachvilli (fit again and in great form when last seen for Biaaritz) did not get a call up from the national side.

England were poor in the first two games – Scotland will regret their loss to them in the Calcutta Cup for a long while, while Italy’s Tobias Botes cost them what looked like certain victory in Week 2 – but they came back off that to show some real spark both in defence and attack against Wales, and given a similar start here, they could easily be setting the pace by half time. They’ve been been winners on the main match handicap in eight of their last 13 encounters with France and do have a recent win at the Stade De France (2008) to their name, while they could have nicked a Grand Slam away from the French when going down 12-10 in the last game of the 2010 Championship. Having kept the French under 25 points since a one sided trashing in 2006, and every team they’ve played under 37 points since losing to Australia in Perth 2 years ago, they can cover an 8 point handicap given to them by Totesport and Betfred.

If that line comes down any more than the advice would be to look for under in the points market – Betting.Betfair tells us that 3 of the last 19 have resulted in fewer than 39.5 total match points – and that looks more solid than the odds against being offered by two firms on less than 4 tries, although both look solid options if the handicap line goes under 8. Having backed France for the tournament one would hope they’d win to set up a Championship decider with Wales but just 6/4 on them winning by 1-12 looks a little edgy and I’d rather let my money ride.

Advice

4 pts England +8 (10/11 Betfred, Totesport) 

Super 15 - Week 3

Brumbies (2/5) v Cheetahs (11/4)

The Cheetas were woeful when getting tonked 51 – 17 by the Bulls last Saturday so it’s hard to get enthusiastic about their prospects at just 11/4 considering that the Brumbies have won two of the last three meetings, and the hosts should get a few points on the board despite being distinctly unimpressive when only just squeezing by the Western Force.

Advice: 1 pt Brumbies to score 28 or more points (5/6 Ladbrokes)

Highlanders (3/4) v Waratahs (6/4)

The Highlanders have started brilliantly with wins over the Chiefs in Hamilton and then when getting the better of the Crusaders here last week, impressing with their pace and speed on both occasions, as well as their proficiency at the breakdown. The Waratahs will feel unlucky not to have won both their opening games but they’re facing one hell of a challenge here and may be edged out of the game.

Advice: 3 pts Highlanders (3/4 Bet365), 1 pt Highlanders to win by 1-12 (37-19 Bwin)

Reds (1/7) v Rebels (8)

After sneaking past their local rivals in Week 1, the Reds were far more convincing against the Western Force last week and they were never really in danger of losing the game – after all they were away from home – and they should be well upto to smashing the Rebels, who were soundly beaten at home last weekend  by the Waratahs last weekend.

Advice: 2 pts Reds to score 34 or more points (5/6 general)

Sharks (1/4) v Lions (9/2)

After wrestling defeat from the jaws of victory the last thing the Lions need is a trip to Durban, where they last won in 2000. The stats speak in favour if the handicap (all 7 of their defeats in Durban have been by more than 10 points) although this could be an attritional, forward dominated game.

Advice: 1 pt Sharks by 1-12 (2/1 Hills)

Bulls (8/15) v Blues (9/4)

Confidence is sure to be high in the Bulls camp following an absolute demolition of the Cheetahs last week and there couldn’t be a starker contrast with the Blues, who have lost twice this year, snatching defeat from the Jaws of victory against the Crusaders before then following that up with a shambles against the Chiefs. There’s the potential for a great performance to come out of the side but they’ve not won in Pretoria since 2003 and could be heading for defeat again.

Advice: 1 pt Bulls by 1-12 (19/10 Bwin) 

6 Nations 2012 - Ireland (3/10) v Scotland (10/3)

Ireland have won 11 of the last 15 meetings with Scotland in the 6 Nations but in no way should Scotland be written off at Croke Park on Saturday despite the fact they have won only 2 of 13 Six Nations games with Andy Robinson in charge.

It’s a damning statistic on his side but one that gives no real indication to how well the Scots have played over the past few months in Internationals. A series of unlucky losses at the World Cup, especially heartbreaking losses to both England and Argentina, have been followed by even better efforts in the past three weeks, most notably their unfortunate 13-6 loss to England in week one.

Scotland dominated that day, creating double and even triple what Stuart Lancaster’s side could offer, but coming off second best thanks to a moment of madness from Dan Parks along with several shoddy handling errors. They didn’t lose through errors against France but were utterly dominant for the opening 35 minutes when taking an 8-0 lead and could have been called unlucky losers at the end of the game, with the French forced into playing on the counter attack after excellent breakdown and multi-phase play (the same areas of expertise as the Irish).

Both those performances came at the relative cauldron that was Murrrayfield but they put up a brave resistance against Wales for -40 minutes and scored two tries of their own despite two sin bins leading to Wales touching down 3 times in 13 minutes – not too shabby considering the circumstances.

The 16 linebreaks throughought this period only underline their powerful midfield ability and another big performance may well be in the offing.

Speaking of big performances, Ireland could well be going for the Grand Slam had it not been for second half turnarounds. A last-minute penalty from Wales fullback Leigh Halfpenny (presented by Stephen Ferris for his moment of madness) gave an understrength Wales victory at the Aviva Stadium, admittedly in a game where they were second best, although that was not the case against France, where a superb display was let down with 11 unanswered second half points and a draw that will surely have felt like a defeat.

The tactics used to shackle the French – who played some way below their best during the whole match – were excellent deployed, with the rush defence putting immense pressure on a much famed backline, but just as crucial will be the deployment of the “choke tackle” (seen left) given Scotland’s army of powerful midfield runners.

They’ll need to be wary of the Scottish lineout – they’ve lost just one all tournament – while the loss of Paul O'Connell, Conor Murray and flanker Sean O'Brien could hit the team very hard despite some strong replacements ready to come on.

In 2010 Scotland arrived here having lost all 4 of their matches but went onto claim a deserved victory. It’s not impossible to see a similar scenario if they can break the grip that Ireland will surely look to put on them early in midfield. Andy Robinson’s team get a start of 9 points in general – a line which would have seen them win on the handicap 5 times since 2006 – and that looks well worth taking, along with the cover bet on the home side to get a win by 1-12 points.

Advice

2.5 pts Scotland +9 (10/11 general)

1 pt Ireland to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Betfred) 

6 Nations 2012 - Wales (1/33) v Italy (25)

Following their hard fought Triple Crown victory against England, Wales are within touching distance of the Grand Slam with only Italy standing in their way before France come towards the Millennium Stadium.

After the 17-17 draw between Les Bleus and the Irish, Gatland’s men are the only team in the running for a Grand Slam, and it’s not hard to see why they’re just 1/2 to beat both Italy and Ireland given the huge advantage that playing at the Mllienium Stadium brings with them.

Finding value in them to beat Italy (they’re just 1/25 to do so) is harder but you can get 5/6 with Sportingbet that they put 32 or more points on the board, which looks like fair value given the form of the two sides.

Italy will feel aggrieved not to have beaten England but shipped 72 points between them when facing Ireland and France on the road and Jacques Brunel’s more expansive style of play – while admirable – is going to take a long time to implement and the same second half problems against fitter and more superior teams are still very prevalent, with both France and Ireland coming back from slow starts to run out comfortable winners.

Wales’s fitness is well documented and it’s proven crucial so far in the tournament, with Gatland’s outfit at their best after the break - Scoring 18 points in the second half against Ireland, 24 in the second half against Scotland, and then scoring 13 against England in the second half to turnaround a 9-6 deficit into a 19-12 win.

It’s debateable whether Italy can offer even half the resistance of those teams when things get tough and with that in mind, a second half handicap deficit of 11 appeals much more than the general line of 20. I wouldn’t be wanting to put anybody off that though, with Ireland covering that start with ease and France only failing on the score of being too comfortable in the latter stages.

The recovery of Mirco Begamasco from injury on the left wing should give a boost and it’s a relief to see Kris Burton come back and replace the misfiring Tobias Botes, but the whole outfit seems inferior to Wales, who boast considerable strength in depth even with the promising Justin Tipuric coming in for Sam Warburton - is out with a knee injury, although it’s hoped that he will return for their final game of the tournament against France - and Matthew Rees filling in at Hooker for Ken Owens, but it should make no different to Wales, who seem professional enough not to have one eye on next week, despite the fact that they should be winning and winning well whatever’s on their mind.

Advice

3.5 pts Wales to score 32 or more points (5/6 Sportingbet)

1.5 pts Wales -11 on 2^nd half handicap (10/11 Betfred)

6 Nations 2012 - France (4/11) v Ireland (3)

How things change in International Rugby. Just over three weeks ago, when this was meant to be the second game in the championship for both sides, France were generally considered to be one of the two teams going for a Grand Slam along with Wales. Another week on and that’s still the status quo, but it’s fair to say that things are going to get a more difficult for Phliipe Saint Andre from now on.

Wins over the two teams generally considered to be the tournament’s weakest – Italy and Scotland – have set Les Bleus up nicely for a Grand Slam charge but things are sure to get more difficult with 3 games in three weeks against Ireland, England and Wales.

Les Bleus did little to dispel the tag of tournament favourites against Italy in week 1, giving up 60% of the ball and 66% of territory but still making the most of the chances they had, running in four tries from their best four breaks and winning by a comfortable 18 points.

It was exactly the same story against Scotland, but with far more risk involved. One can’t fail to commend the way they bounced back from 10-0 down against the Scottish at Murayfield, but they could have conceded at least double the two tries that Scotland scored, with Ross Ford and Mike Blair both isolated after excellent line breaks.

Like most of the team, Morgan Parra (seen left) and Francois Trinh Duc struggled with their kicking against Scotland while hooker Dimitri Szarzewski tackled poorly, and in areas where Ireland excel – Their win against Australia was little more than a few months ago – all three will need to sharpen up.

It should be remembered that all France had to do is win and win they did but this will be a significant test for the French and one they must face without the match winning Tryscorer on Sunday, Maxime Medard, ruled out for 6-9 months after tearing his cruciate ankle ligaments.

Clement Poitrenaud has long been seen as 6 of one and half a dozen of the other – when things got tough against England (his last test appearance) he crumbled under the high ball, but a similar performance to the one he put in against Italy in 2010 when man of the match would be gratefully appreciated by Saint Andre, especially up against Rob Kearney, who was so impressive against Italy last week . Lionel Beauxis seemed to be in good touch when brought on against

In both matches they’ve given up the majority of possession – something which suggests that counter attack rugby suits Andre’s side more than most – and it will be interesting to see how much possession they’re willing to give up against an Ireland side with the tactical nous and options available to them.

Declan Kidney’s side put 10 more points on the board than France did against Italy on home turf (although they took far more possession and looked in trouble for the opening half hour) so while France’s exceptional home record understandably sees them as short as 2/7 for this, this looks to more even than the bookmakers suggest.

That would lend the selection to Ireland on the handicap, but it would be foolish to assume that France can’t up their game with two matches on their back and they just get the vote to edge out Ireland and keep their Grand Slam hopes alive, although it’s hard to forsee this being by a margin of more than 1-12.

Advice

3 pts France to win by 1-12 points (6/4 Stan James)