Ireland have won 11 of the last 15 meetings with Scotland in
the 6 Nations but in no way should Scotland be written off at Croke Park on Saturday
despite the fact they have won only 2 of 13 Six Nations games with Andy
Robinson in charge.
It’s a damning statistic on his side but one that gives no
real indication to how well the Scots have played over the past few months in Internationals.
A series of unlucky losses at the World Cup, especially heartbreaking losses to
both England and Argentina, have been followed by even better efforts in the
past three weeks, most notably their unfortunate 13-6 loss to England in week
one.
Scotland dominated that day, creating double and even triple
what Stuart Lancaster’s side could offer, but coming off second best thanks to
a moment of madness from Dan Parks along with several shoddy handling errors.
They didn’t lose through errors against France but were utterly dominant for
the opening 35 minutes when taking an 8-0 lead and could have been called
unlucky losers at the end of the game, with the French forced into playing on
the counter attack after excellent breakdown and multi-phase play (the same
areas of expertise as the Irish).
Both those performances came at the relative cauldron that
was Murrrayfield but they put up a brave resistance against Wales for -40 minutes
and scored two tries of their own despite two sin bins leading to Wales
touching down 3 times in 13 minutes – not too shabby considering the
circumstances.
The 16 linebreaks throughought this period only underline
their powerful midfield ability and another big performance may well be in the
offing.
Speaking of big performances, Ireland could well be going
for the Grand Slam had it not been for second half turnarounds. A last-minute
penalty from Wales fullback Leigh Halfpenny (presented by Stephen Ferris for
his moment of madness) gave an understrength Wales victory at the Aviva
Stadium, admittedly in a game where they were second best, although that was
not the case against France, where a superb display was let down with 11
unanswered second half points and a draw that will surely have felt like a
defeat.
The tactics used to shackle the French – who played some way
below their best during the whole match – were excellent deployed, with the
rush defence putting immense pressure on a much famed backline, but just as
crucial will be the deployment of the “choke tackle” (seen left) given Scotland’s army of
powerful midfield runners.
They’ll need to be wary of the Scottish lineout – they’ve
lost just one all tournament – while the loss of Paul O'Connell, Conor Murray
and flanker Sean O'Brien could hit the team very hard despite some strong
replacements ready to come on.
In 2010 Scotland arrived here having lost all 4 of their
matches but went onto claim a deserved victory. It’s not impossible to see a similar
scenario if they can break the grip that Ireland will surely look to put on
them early in midfield. Andy Robinson’s team get a start of 9 points in general
– a line which would have seen them win on the handicap 5 times since 2006 –
and that looks well worth taking, along with the cover bet on the home side to
get a win by 1-12 points.
Advice
2.5 pts Scotland +9 (10/11 general)
1 pt Ireland to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Betfred)
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