This always seems to be the Wooden Spoon decider – Italy and
Scotland have battled to avoid the Wooden Spoon seven times in the past 12
seasons -and the choice between either
team isn’t very appealing today.
Despite a new coach in Jacques Brunel – a surprising change
given the general improvement made over several years by coach Nick Malett –
Italy seem to have gone backwards in terms of performance with four straight
losses, being unable to find the fluency wanted in their backline despite
retaining the considerable grunt upfront that they’ve always been based on.
However second half trashings against France, Ireland and
Wales seem to have put them right back in their place at the bottom of the
table, with only 3 tries to their name all tournament and just 40 points. Even taking into account they’ve had a terrible fixture
list- they’ve played Ireland, Wales and France away from home – they let
England back in after leading 12-6 at the interval and had chances to win the
game that they blew out late on thanks to Tobias Botes’s two missed kicks at
goal.
In any case, it’s desperately hard to argue that Scotland
haven’t played the better rugby. Despite being on their worst run of form for
eight years few could argue that the level of performance shown by Robinson’s
side has risen vastly on last year, with the trio of John Barclay, David Denton
and Ross Rennie proving to be an impressive midfield of ball carriers while
Stuart Hogg’s try against France may have been the start of a promising carrer
for the full back.
The Edinbrugh half back pairing of Greig Laidlaw and Mike
Blair have dictated play well enough when allowed the ball if a kicking game
ensues they might not be at the total disadvantage that many expect thanks to
Italian pack power.
However, they’ve nearly always conspired to lose somehow,
messing up two golden chances against England before Charlie Hodgson’s
chargedown saw them lose at Murrayfield against England for the first time
since 2006, while they will feel aggrieved to have lost against France too
given the nature of the two tries they conceded.
Wales looked an impossible task but even then they were
better than the defeat and it can’t be impressed enough how badly the two sin
binnings cost them – Wales did all their work in the 13 minute gap which saw
them down to 14 and then 13 – while they had a try disallowed in that time
period. They came out flying in the first 30 minutes against Ireland
and were closer than many expected them to be following Richie Gray’s try but
toothlessness before the break in defence – which has cost them this
championship - put the game out of their reach and the lacklustre performance
in the second half has to be a big worry.
It’s negated by the fact that Italy themselves have scored
just 9 points in the second half of games, but Scotland were at their worst
after the break against the Irish, Welsh and English, which means the game is
really best left from an outright perspective. The last two matches between these sides and 3 overall have
all come under the 38 points line however, and with Italy having scored just 40
themselves (Scotland only 50) that might offer the best value in a tight game.
Advice
3 pts under 38 points (5/6 general)
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