Wales’s rise over the past two years has been meteoric and
they can gain revenge over France and their third Grand Slam in eight seasons
in the process today at the Millenium Stadium in style.
Wales’s bad record against France – they’ve won just two of
the last twelve meetings – manifested itself in the worst possible fashion when
they went down by a single point in last year’s World Cup semi-final but that
was a game that they should have won while playing with 14 men for 61 minutes
(often when Wales are seen at their weakest, as Betting.Betfair’s Geoffrey
Riddle’s stats zone shows us Wales have scored six points and conceded eight
when down to 14 men in their four matches this season) with many kickable
penalties going wide.
Head to head records have been ripped up this tournament –
France themselves had an excellent record and against Ireland and England on
their own patch before those two disappointing games – and Wales should have
won their World Cup encounter with ease.
Since then the two teams have gone in vastly different
directions. Gatland’s Wales may have lost to Australia twice but are unbeaten
since using a variety of different tactics to gain successes that looked very
unlikely at different times. They were down with less than 10 minutes to go against both
Ireland and England away but found a way to come through on both occasions, launching
excellent counter attacks which gave them tight wins. That’s testament to their
excellent fitness – a now noted feature of Gatland’s side – but don’t take
anything away from their excellent mental sprit or world class backline, which
can now boast 7 tries in this tournament.
That squad is now boosted massively by the return of Skipper
Sam Warburton, one of the best opensides in World Rugby, and everything looks
set fair for their third Grand Slam in eight years today, with the added bonus
of the fact that their two wins over France in 12 years both came in Grand Slam
seasons.
France have been the disappointments of the whole
championship. Tipped for the tournament by this very page in expectations of
home wins against Ireland and England, poor attacking, worse defending and
missed drop goal attempts from Lionel Beauxis/Francois Tinh Duc have taken the
life out of their challenge for the Championship and it’s hard to see them
doing any better here. It’s famously said that the enigmatic French can do anything
they want when they put their minds towards it – they went from a loss against Tonga
towards a 19-12 win against England at the World Cup – but they’ve not threatened
to do anything like that this time around and much more is needed in this situation,
with Wales possessing the defensive strength and attacking cohesion that England
and Ireland did except to a much greater level with the strength they’ve shown
so far.
Some will try for the upset and the carrot being dangled (11/4) would be big if France turned up on their game but that’s a cliché these days
and a start of just 4 points is beginning to be smashed, although the second
half handicap offers better cover – France wilted late on in the two Welsh
Grand Slam wins.
France may also be weaker than for the last two games thanks
to the 5 changes that Phillipe Saint Andre has made, presumably in the hope of
being able to suffocate the game and keep France on the march. However the same
tactics didn’t work against England and it’s hard to be totally confident about
the personnel used today.
An injury to Vincent Clerc leaves Les Bleus with Florian
Fritz (hardly the greatest replacement),Julien Mazieu hasn’t gone on from a
promising start against Italy but I’m not sure that Alexis Palisson is any
better, Wesley Fofana (the main threat and best thing about France during this
championship) has been pushed wide towards the wing, David Attoub replacing
Nicolas Mas isn’t a great indicator of any confidence in what has been a
misfiring French pack and Lionel Beauxis at ten seems to be an absolute mystery
ahead of Trinh – Duc after his awful performance against England and two missed
drop goal attempts against France.
The return of Dimitri Yachvilli is timely and if his
goal/box kicking should be a major help but one can’t help but think that
having Morgan Parra outside him would be a massive help and giving the Welsh
ball to run from midfield just seems like suicide based on their tries so far.
If they’re going to be on their game then they’ll need to do
it from the off – England, Ireland and Scotland all started with tries against
the French – and such a start would leave them reeling and upto 5 points down
against a side who have score d7 of their 9 tries after the break and let in
just two during the same period.
Advice
5 pts Wales -2.5 on second half handicap (8/11 Bet365)
2 pts Wales -4 (Blue Sq, 888 Sport)
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