The phrase “It’s better late than never” comes to mind for a
lot of things on the Vic Page but it’s not too late to join in the F1 party,
starting with the Malaysian Grand Prix.
This year’s racing looks as competitive as ever – something which
hopefully I’ll come to in a later post with more depth – but the results of Melbourne
have already given us some fairly clear trends. McLaren seem to be the fastest
cars overall, blitzing the qualifying sessions with two front row lockouts, and
also gaining a 1-3 in the race, while Red Bull seem to be second best, coming
from fifth and sixth for third and fourth respectively, although much kinder on
their tyres and also much better over the longer haul than for qualifying.
Mercedes, who looked so good in pre-season testing, are as
quick as anyone on the field but seemed to struggle seriously from tyre wear in
the latter stages of Melbourne, while Lotus/Renault are also able to lay up
with the best of the field.
Lewis Hamilton’s second pole of the season means the best
you’ll get about him is 5/4 with Skybet but team mate Jenson Button is just one
place away and looks as aswell placed as anyone to strike, much like he did in
Melbourne after a superb first lap and at 2/1 he offers much more value than
his team mate.
It’s often been said that Hamilton is the faster of the two
over a straight lap but that Button on occasions has been the better race
driver with his excellent strategy and tyre maintenance. It’s true that he
might have been a little lucky with how the race unfolded from the front –
Hamilton making his pit stop one lap later than Button meant that he came out
behind Perez, meaning that it took 4 laps for him to pass Perez, while Button
extended his lead to 10 seconds in the extending period. But that was also down
to superior strategy and race speed, and with possible rain forecast as well
for the race, the conditions seem to be perfect for Jenson to make it 2-2.
Michael Schumacher did well in qualifying and seemed sure of
second before Button flew late, so it’s surprising to see him as big at 16/1
with Bet Victor, although the reason for that – a struggle to cope with tyre degradation
throughought the race – is a worry for those who are backing him, although a
podium price of 9/4 is very tempting.
The Red Bulls of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel were a
touch slower than anyone expected based on the dominance of last year, but they
were as good as anybody in race conditions and the durability of their tyres
over long stints – combined with obvious driver skills and the raw pace they
still retain – makes them a potential value option from relatively decent grid positions.
Mark Webber made up tons of ground after a poor first lap in Australia but the
grid demotion of Kimi Rakkionen means Sebastian Vettel moves up a spot and it’s
not hard to see him make a big challenge today with the long sweeping corners
here likely to help him make a sustained challenge, along with the fact that he
starts with hard tyres. The Red Bull’s already shown itself to be kind on tyres
and that, combined with a long stint strategy, should see him make a big
challenge for the podium, with the 11/8 on offer from Bet Victor that he wins
their Group A also worth taking – to do this he has to beat Michael Schumacher,
Nico Rosberg, and team mate Mark Webber, and he looks capable of making the
jump above his team mate and fellow German – it offers better value than the
odds against given for a podium.
The above strategy suggested that those who can go for long
stints on tyre friendly cars will be rewarded, much like Pastor Maldonado was
in Melbourne before a cruel late mistake caused him to crash on the last lap.
He was gunning for sixth and pushing Alonso hard at the time and my suspicion is
that if he had settled he’d have earned Williams more points there than they
had during the whole of last season. He looked set to go to Q3 again but
running well wide on turn 11 screwed up his challenge for the race and even
then he was still unlucky not to get through, with the pace of both Mercedes
taking him out late on with flying laps. The 11/10 for him to get into the
points seems on the generous side based on that, while you can get 6/11 on him
beating Nico Hulkenberg and Bruno Senna with Bwin – the double makes for 2.4
with Bwin, which is also worth taking, as is the 11/8 on him beating Perez and
Massa.
Keep an eye out for the Lotus pair of Romain Grosjean and
Kimi Raikkonen, especially the latter who should have come fifth instead tenth
given the penalty he incurred for a gearbox change, but there’s no value from a
betting perspective in either driver tomorrow despite their obvious pace.
Advice
3 pts Jenson Button (2/1 general)
2 pts Sebastian Vettel to win Bet Victor’s Group A (11/8 Bet
Victor)
7.5 pts Pastor Maldonado points finish (11/10 general)
3 pts Pastor Maldonaldo to win Bet365’s Group C (11/8 Bet365)
2 pts Pastor Maldonado to beat Burno Senna & Nick
Hulkenberg (2.4 Bwin)
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