6 Nations 2012 - France (4/9) v England (13/5)

If France win this particular episode – the 96^th, to be exact - of Le Crunch then they can still win the 6 Nations if they can pull a shock off against Wales in Cardiff last week, but if current evidence things aren’t going to be that simple for Phillipe Saint Andre’s men.

You can get just 4/9 about the tournament shouts Les Bleus on Sunday with England at 11/4 but if performance is anything to go by then the gap should be much closer. They didn’t do much more than they had to against Italy in Week 1 but they could well have gone down to Scotland had it not been for some lacklustre defending and they were abysmal against the Irish despite clawing their way back into things with 11 unanswered second half points.

The changing of half backs Morgan Parra and François Trinh-Duc suggests that Saint Andre is going to try and control the early exchanges and make big territory but the same plans didn’t work against Ireland – the reason why the changes are being made – while their running from deep with the ball in hand has been unusually poor, which explains why they couldn’t get over the line despite having nearly 60% of the ball and only marginally less territory throughought the game last weekend.

England came in off two poor performances against Wales and made Gatland’s men battle as hard as they’ll ever have to for a win with a 9-6 lead at half time despite being pinned back in their own half for long periods of the game. The rush defence that Ireland employed here just a week ago stopped France in their tracks while providing opportunities through mistakes for their backline.

With France stuck between a rock and a hard place at the moment, England should be confident of trying to stop the French runners in midfield and making things as uncomfortable as they did for Wales at Twickenham,  which will make life very tough for the likes of Fofana (pictured), Rougerie, Clerc, Malzieu and Poitrenaud.

A kicking game will also suit the visitors just fine if Owen Farell can get the time and space he needs while Morgan Parra’s absence may be a negative given that his own kicking had been OK throughought the tournament, although the dropping of Trinh Duc is understandable.

His replacement Juilen Dupuy had his last Test start in 2009 which begs the question of why Dimitri Yachvilli (fit again and in great form when last seen for Biaaritz) did not get a call up from the national side.

England were poor in the first two games – Scotland will regret their loss to them in the Calcutta Cup for a long while, while Italy’s Tobias Botes cost them what looked like certain victory in Week 2 – but they came back off that to show some real spark both in defence and attack against Wales, and given a similar start here, they could easily be setting the pace by half time. They’ve been been winners on the main match handicap in eight of their last 13 encounters with France and do have a recent win at the Stade De France (2008) to their name, while they could have nicked a Grand Slam away from the French when going down 12-10 in the last game of the 2010 Championship. Having kept the French under 25 points since a one sided trashing in 2006, and every team they’ve played under 37 points since losing to Australia in Perth 2 years ago, they can cover an 8 point handicap given to them by Totesport and Betfred.

If that line comes down any more than the advice would be to look for under in the points market – Betting.Betfair tells us that 3 of the last 19 have resulted in fewer than 39.5 total match points – and that looks more solid than the odds against being offered by two firms on less than 4 tries, although both look solid options if the handicap line goes under 8. Having backed France for the tournament one would hope they’d win to set up a Championship decider with Wales but just 6/4 on them winning by 1-12 looks a little edgy and I’d rather let my money ride.

Advice

4 pts England +8 (10/11 Betfred, Totesport)