Part of betting – and betting previews – is being proven
well and truly wrong, so with this I doff my cap towards England and Stuart
Lancaster, who went from fourth or fifth favourites for this tournament to one
of only two teams that can win it.
That all seems a long time away after their stunning win
against France last weekend, playing with a width and flair that many
complained they hadn’t seen for too long from an England side. Tom Croft, Ben
Morgan and Manu Tuilangi were all magnificent running from deep against the
French and the same’s expected today.
After seeing that it’s no surprise that the two teams are nearly inseparable in the betting market, with a best price of 8/11 England matched up against Hills’s offer of 21/20 for their rivals. Those who want to get with the home side should be looking only at the 1-12 winning margin – a straight line through France says that there’s 2 points between the side at best – while the 9/2 that a win is eeked out by 1-15 points should also be of interest.
While that’s tempting, there are some warning signs. Ireland
have won seven of the last eight clashes with England, scored more than double
England’s tries (although they’ve been lucky to do so thanks to an easy second
half against Italy), and have started quickly with a try in the 1st
half in each of the four games before dropping off slightly in the second half.
I don’t think they will – Wales look to have a cast iron
opportunity to beat France in any case, not forgetting the massive turnaround
that’s needed in points when they play Ireland at Twickenham today – but considering
where they were just 6 months ago it’s massive that they could essentially be
the second best side in Europe.
They could arguably have lost the first two games quite
easily – Scotland’s three linebreaks went wrong at the last stage while Italy
missed two very kickable penalties – but came roaring back against Wales,
making Gatland’s side work as hard as any team has during this whole championship
with a ferocious display to go down fighting 19-12, a game they could even have
drawn if they’d been given a last minute try (the Conversion for Toby Flood
wasn’t an easy one)
The strong tackling defence that has so often been a feature
of the greatest England sides has been brought right back into life by Stuart Lancaster
– put in as the stand in coach following Martin Johnston’s controversial exit
after over conservative tactics didn’t
work according to the experts who lambasted England following their loss
to France.
That all seems a long time away after their stunning win
against France last weekend, playing with a width and flair that many
complained they hadn’t seen for too long from an England side. Tom Croft, Ben
Morgan and Manu Tuilangi were all magnificent running from deep against the
French and the same’s expected today.
That may not even be the best thing about England’s new look
team. Owen Farrell was most famous for his Premiership winning exploits with Leicester
before this season but a magnificent record which sees him with only 3 kicks at
goal all tournament, along with several outstanding defensive tackles tracking
back, like his hit on Imanol Harindoquy last weekend when the French were
pushing for a late winner.
It’s that game which gives us the best link between England
and Ireland, with Declan Kidney’s side (being less than ten points away from a
Grand Slam attempt – how Stepehen Ferris must have felt after the opening
weekend) having led 17-6 before having their advantage clawed back late on.
After seeing that it’s no surprise that the two teams are nearly inseparable in the betting market, with a best price of 8/11 England matched up against Hills’s offer of 21/20 for their rivals. Those who want to get with the home side should be looking only at the 1-12 winning margin – a straight line through France says that there’s 2 points between the side at best – while the 9/2 that a win is eeked out by 1-15 points should also be of interest.
While that’s tempting, there are some warning signs. Ireland
have won seven of the last eight clashes with England, scored more than double
England’s tries (although they’ve been lucky to do so thanks to an easy second
half against Italy), and have started quickly with a try in the 1st
half in each of the four games before dropping off slightly in the second half.
They’re a hell of a hard side to get through though and an
interesting bet is under 39 points. That mark hasn’t been breached in two of
the last 3 games between the two and given how no team has come to Twickenham
and scored more than 20 points apart from South Africa and New Zealand since
2009, it might prove to be value, with both teams priding themselves on
defensive capability.
Advice
2 pts under 39 points (5/6 general)
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