6 Nations 2012 - Wales (1/33) v Italy (25)

Following their hard fought Triple Crown victory against England, Wales are within touching distance of the Grand Slam with only Italy standing in their way before France come towards the Millennium Stadium.

After the 17-17 draw between Les Bleus and the Irish, Gatland’s men are the only team in the running for a Grand Slam, and it’s not hard to see why they’re just 1/2 to beat both Italy and Ireland given the huge advantage that playing at the Mllienium Stadium brings with them.

Finding value in them to beat Italy (they’re just 1/25 to do so) is harder but you can get 5/6 with Sportingbet that they put 32 or more points on the board, which looks like fair value given the form of the two sides.

Italy will feel aggrieved not to have beaten England but shipped 72 points between them when facing Ireland and France on the road and Jacques Brunel’s more expansive style of play – while admirable – is going to take a long time to implement and the same second half problems against fitter and more superior teams are still very prevalent, with both France and Ireland coming back from slow starts to run out comfortable winners.

Wales’s fitness is well documented and it’s proven crucial so far in the tournament, with Gatland’s outfit at their best after the break - Scoring 18 points in the second half against Ireland, 24 in the second half against Scotland, and then scoring 13 against England in the second half to turnaround a 9-6 deficit into a 19-12 win.

It’s debateable whether Italy can offer even half the resistance of those teams when things get tough and with that in mind, a second half handicap deficit of 11 appeals much more than the general line of 20. I wouldn’t be wanting to put anybody off that though, with Ireland covering that start with ease and France only failing on the score of being too comfortable in the latter stages.

The recovery of Mirco Begamasco from injury on the left wing should give a boost and it’s a relief to see Kris Burton come back and replace the misfiring Tobias Botes, but the whole outfit seems inferior to Wales, who boast considerable strength in depth even with the promising Justin Tipuric coming in for Sam Warburton - is out with a knee injury, although it’s hoped that he will return for their final game of the tournament against France - and Matthew Rees filling in at Hooker for Ken Owens, but it should make no different to Wales, who seem professional enough not to have one eye on next week, despite the fact that they should be winning and winning well whatever’s on their mind.

Advice

3.5 pts Wales to score 32 or more points (5/6 Sportingbet)

1.5 pts Wales -11 on 2^nd half handicap (10/11 Betfred)