Pakistan v Sri Lanka - 2nd Test Preview

A 6 hour defiance which involved 2 centuries, one of them a double from Kumar Sangakarra, earned Sri Lanka a most unlikely looking draw in the first test between the two, a match that the hosts would surely have won if not for a host of fielding errors and the run out of Pakistani opener Taufeeq Umar, who having amassed a colossal 236 in the opening test match, looking utterly unmovable at the crease for over 170 overs before being run out.

 

This still represents another steady improvement for Pakistan, who have not lost a test match in eight games since an awful tour of England a couple of summers ago. Sri Lanka can still put on a big total, but their bowling attack’s inability to take 20 wickets in a match is stopping them from winning a game, and Australia kept them scoreless at home before this series.

With that in mind runs should be at the forefront of our thinking – The last test between these two saw South Africa and Pakistan score 300 in their last innings – and with a flat pitch again possible, the draw is the odds on favourite.

With both attacks struggling to get wickets that seems fair enough – Sri Lanka drew twice against Australia and only lost 1-0 to England despite being up against it for much of the series – and it might prove difficult for Pakistan to down a resilient, if not a particularly sharp side.

Sri Lanka gave up the highest opening partnership to the opposing team twice against Australia and also against Pakistan in the first test, which makes the 10/11 on Pakistan’s openers lasting longest tempting again.

This could see Kumar Sangakarra starring again, after his stunning 211 in the second Innings of Abu Dhabi. He has the propensity to throw in a bit of a stinker sometimes but his previous scores were 79, 60, and 48, which makes a 36 run line fair gain and he’s given a vote of confidence to make 37 or more.

Advice

2 pts Draw (evs Betfred)

1 pt Pakistan highest opening partnership (10/11 Hills)

1 pt Kumar Sangakarra to make 38 or more runs (5/6 Ladbrokes) 

India v England - 5th ODI Preview

Having comprehensively beaten England on all 4 tour matches so far, India will look to complete a series whitewash when they take on England in the fifth ODI at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata on Tuesday, going some way (in their minds at least) to wiping out the memories of their 8-0 loss combined in all forms of the game on the reverse tour.

The slow turning pitches have seen the hosts dominate in an arena where they’re traditionally strong – As said when the series began, the home side haven’t been beaten by any team other than Australia – Near the peak of their powers at the time – in 13 series of ODI Cricket, and England have been hammered 5-0 and 5-1 on their last two visits in series here.

The visitors have struggled to score big totals on flat pitches where runs are crucial – and their bowlers have lacked the control to stop India’s bastmen from knocking up massive totals. Stuart Finn has been the standout on this tour but the four games still lead to the conclusion that England's one-day game is lagging behind that of the Southern Hemisphere.

As far as tomorrow is concerned, the world famous Eden Gardens is usually a good surface for batting with an average first innings score of 270, four sides having 300 or more in that time. India have gotten to that mark twice already in this series and on the other occasions, they have not been required to do so.

This makes Victor Chandler’s offer of 8/11 that they post the highest innings score at home yet again very tempting, and it’s taken.

Two cornerstones of India’s success so far this series are Virat Kohli, who has scored 37, 112, 35, and 86 so far this series – Making a match target of 30 more than worth taking on that basis, backed up by the fact that a previous appearance saw him score 107 off 114 balls here against Sri Lanka.

Gutham Ghambir has thrived where the grass is greener for him – India, where he can smash the ball all day without and fear of variation and swing to help opposition bowlers – and his series totals of 32, 84 and 58 before just 1 have seen him back to his best this time around. He can be backed to make 29 and go some way to propelling India to the highest opening partnership too.

Advice

3 pts India to have highest Innings total (8/11 VCBet)

2 pts Virat Kohli to make 31 or more runs (5/6 Ladbrokes)

2 pts India to have Highest Opening Partnership (10/11 Blue Sq)

2 pts Gutham Ghambir to make 29 or more runs (5/6 Ladbrokes) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Final

It’s been 24 long years since New Zealand won the inaugural World Cup but only fate it seems would lie between them and the Webb Ellis trophy once again, according to their best price of 1/9 to win the final on Sunday.

Put out by their Australian enemies in 1991 and 2003, then outfought in extra time by South Africa in 1995, the All Blacks have twice been put out of the World Cup by France. Cristophe Dominici’s sheer brilliance taking his side to a 34-21 win before Bernard Laporte’s men came from well behind to condemn Henry’s All Blacks to their worst ever finish at a World Cup.

While followers of this blog will already be happy with the French performance, having backed them each/way for the World Cup and also without New Zealand, they’ve not impressed in any real game apart from when running straight through England in the first half of their quarter final, although what resistance they offered was questionable.

Last weekend's semi-final win over a 14-man Wales was gained through sheer nerve and luck – the Welsh missed plenty of chances to win the game – with the only real positive being how France held on from the multi phase assault that Wales launched late on.

Morgan Parra, Vincent Clerc, Thierry Dusatoir and Imanol Harinordquy have all stepped up to the plate big style in the latter stages but that doesn’t take away from the fact that they’ll need the game of their lives to give France a chance of winning the World Cup.

The French campaign has been fraught with problems, many of them coming from the coach himself, Marc Livremont. After a struggling win over Japan, Lievremont laid the blame at the feet of some of his experienced charges, with Dimitri Yachvili, Imanol Harinordoquy and Francois Trinh-Duc all coming under the spotlight for performances which he deemed to be "lackadaisical".

More poor performances followed throughout the pool stages before the improvement that saw them get to the final, but there’s still a feeling that they need to improve by a large margin to give the All Blacks a proper game. That’s not impossible – The French were one of the only teams to have New Zealand in trouble when they battered them for 10 first half minutes – and their defence did hold out well against Wales, but that was against a 14 man side and it looks like they’ll be losing finalists again.

New Zealand’s route to the final has been relatively simple – An easy pool stage was followed with a convincing win against Argentina, but only after struggling for a while in the first half – but the real plaudits were achieved with the 20-6 win over Australia, where the early try from Ma Nonu saw them on their way to one of the most impressive wins of the tournament.

That performance again will win and see them cover the handicap, but a New Zealand try to be the first scoring play looks value at 7/2. The French could defend for their lives and make this a cagey final but an early score would do wonders for Graham Henry’s side and it’s not impossible to imagine them starting with a flyer.  This would also make the 5/6 about the first try coming before 20 minutes – Something that has happened in 5 of the 6 matches that New Zealand have played in.

The two to do this could well be Cory Jane and Israel Dagg, who have both excelled of late and may have the path cleared for them by their forward pack, who were so brilliant in pushing back Australia. At around 2/1 to score a try, the pair look interesting, but the first tryscorer odds make even more appeal with Bet365 going 4 and ¼ places.  

A handicap of 15 points should also not stand in their way is stats are to be believed but the second half handicap probably offers more value, with France having been at their weakest late on in this tournament.

To add to that, a drop goal being scored also looks like a stat to have on your side – New Zealand won’t be averse to trying if they need and scoring a try looks beyond France if they play as badly as they did against Wales – so the 5/6 about that eventuality looks like it could be well worth taking.

Advice

1 pt First try before and inc 21 minutes (10/11 Paddy Power)

1 pt New Zealand Try first scoring play (7/2 general)

1 pt Drop Goal in match (5/6 Betfred)

1 pt New Zealand -7.5 on second half handicap (4/5 Betfred)

1 pt each/way Cory Jane first tryscorer (8/1 Bet365)

 1 pt each/way Israel Dagg first tryscorer (9/1 Bet365)


Man Of The Match 

If New Zealand win the World Cup Final – They’re a 1/9 shot to do so – then they’ll almost certainly get the man of the match award and who better than Richie McCaw to get it? With Dan Carter out the Rugby fanatics of New Zealand have turned to the talismanic Captain to carry their hopes and he responded in fantastic style with his dismantling of David Pocock at the breakdown in the semi – final. It’s impossible to see him having as much pressure here on his shoulders and the 13/2 that he’s called Man Of The Match in what might be his last World Cup game is too big to ignore.

If he doesn’t though, the scrum half of Piri Weepu who brought New Zealand through their Quarter – final in one piece, may well be a big runner, with possible kicking duties in a game that could be made tight if France are to turn up. Aaaron Cruden’s young shoulders coped admirably when he had to carry the 10 jersey in the absence of Colin Slade but the game might not be decided by just a few kicks and it wouldn’t surprise if he got a few shots at goal too.

Advice – Man Of The Match

1 pt Richie McCaw (13/2 Betfred)

1 pt Piri Weepu (9/1 Paddy Power) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Third Place Play - Off

A magnificent Rugby World Cup sadly comes a step closer to ending as Wales take on Australia in the much maligned third place play – off on Friday morning.  Both sides have expressed interest in the game – something we both know isn’t strictly true –but the Welsh may come into this in better shape than many expect.

Australia’s campaign has been hit hard by injury, having missed the returning Kurtley Beale badly at full back against New Zealand, while Wycliff Palu and Drew Mitchell sustained tournament-ending injuries in the Pool Stages, amongst a plethora of other players to pick up serious knocks.

The Wallabies’ injuries have cleared up a bit more but they’ve had their fallible moments at this World Cup – A pool defeat to Ireland sticks in the mind, they shouldn’t have beaten South Africa, and while New Zealand were brilliant in all areas against the Wallabies, they weren’t at their Tri – Nations winning level and they face a tough test, even taking into account that neither side will really want to be turning up for this match.

While David Pocock has been simply sensational all tournament, ending South Africa’s hopes single handedly before being the only player to offer a massive amount of resistance against New Zealand, Quade Cooper has been the largest let down.

The Super 15 winning fly half, so impressive when defeating the Crusaders in the Super 15 final, has been poor all tournament, gaining a reputation as a bit of a flat track bully. New Zealand got to him at Eden Park in the semi – final and without protection from the superior tight 5, he was taken out of the game completely.

Wales have been one of the standout teams so far this tournament, having improved ever since their opening game against South Africa, when they were tragically unlucky not to win, the Welsh defence and fitness has drawn adulation from all levels, especially when they blew away an Irish side tipped for the final by many seasoned observers after their win over Australia.

They should have won their semi – final too – Sam Warbuton’s red card a controversial red card for captain Sam Warburton and an injury to prop Adam Jones derailed their charge, but they still had good kickable chances – and it’s probably a measure of how well they’ve done at this World Cup that New Zealand fans are happier with France than Wales in the final despite their record of World Cup upsets against the hosts.

Gatland has made a point of Wales going home  from New Zealand as one of the top three teams in the world after naming a strong side - prop Gethin Jenkins has been made captain in the absence of his Cardiff Blues team-mate Sam Warburton, with Faleatau making his 7^th start of the tournament at openside flanker.

Their pack will suffer for the loss of Alyn Wyn Jones, but Wales look value to send home Australia in fourth place. Southern Hemisphere teams hold no fear for them following a strong tournament showing and the Wallabies have looked fallible at times this year, so a win by 1-12 points at 9/4 seems good value.

Advice

2 pts Wales to win by 1-12 points (9/4 Ladbrokes)

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Australia v New Zealand

With finalists France probably underserving of the place, fans of World Cup favourites New Zealand and Tri-Nations champions Australia can almost taste the Webb Ellis trophy if performances are to be believed.

Going by that same logic, the All Blacks will make it to their first final since 1995 if performances are to be believed.  When they knocked out South Africa the Springboks had 76% of territory, had more than 11 minutes in their 22, and had to make only 53 tackles all game.

The whole reason that Australia won was because in response to that, they made an astonishing 147 tackles to protect their fragile lead, gained through a rare South African mistakes when trying to run the ball from their own 22. How they will try and stop New Zealand is a question that requires a serious response but the All Blacks are not an infallible team, as was shown by their two defeats when going for the Tri – Nations, the first when stopped by a physical South African team and the second when ripped apart by the Australian backline, going in 20-3 down at half time.

Those same players -  Adam Ashley-Cooper; James O'Connor, Anthony Faingaa, Pat McCabe, Digby Ioane; Quade Cooper and Will Genia – haven’t quite arrived at the part this season but they get one massive last chance to do so here, although Australia will need to get hands on the ball far more than they have done and then get past a resolute defence which has let no more than 17 points in one game all tournament.

New Zealand were made to struggle by Argentina for long periods but drew away late on, thanks to the calm awareness and goalkicking accuracy of Piri Weepu, who’s importance cannot be underestimated given the injury to Dan Carter – so important in games between these two – and his understudy Colin Slade, which leaves the massive pressure on the young shoulders of Aaron Cruden, who makes only his second start in Test rugby.

Twice they have been eliminated at the semi-final stage by Australia, in 1991 and 2003, but the crucial difference is that the crowd was very much neutral and the intimating venue that is Eden Park may well swing it in favour of the hosts.

The Aussies haven’t won in New Zealand for 12 test matches and while they get a chance at what some would call a weakened All Black’s side, the loss of Kurtley Beale is a massive one to their chances and Quade Cooper cannot afford to be as poor as he was against South Africa and Ireland.

It all has the makings of a very tight game but the firm verdict is behind New Zeland to get home by 1-12 points – The Wallabies should put up a stiff resistance in defence and will have their backers at the prices, but New Zealand offer more than South Africa in terms of running backs and should break through once or twice.

Advice

3 pts New Zealand to win by 1-12 points (13/8 general) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Wales v France

Wales, a best priced 100/1 with Blue Square to win the tournament and 4/1 to reach this stage beforehand, have probably been the impost impressive team this tournament given that people expected Australia and New Zealand to get to this stage with relative comfort (they did, but not easily) – and that today’s opponents and ante – post picks France didn’t face the same task against England that Wales did against Ireland.

Warren Gatland’s team are thriving at the moment off the back of the confidence gained in an exemplary display against South Africa in which they lost by a point but should have won by 6, following that up with strong displays three impressive wins, turning on the style against Nambia and Fiji, having edged Samoa in a tight physical game.

When Wales get on a roll they take some stopping – their two Grand Slams were based on this sort of play – and the prospect of them winning this whole World Cup, let alone the match tomorrow, Is very real and the country’s confidence is justified.  

By this logic the remaining 10/11 with Boylesports at the time of writing is a cracking bet but I wouldn’t be steaming in for two reasons: Our ante post position on France (10’s for the WC itself, and then 11/2 w/o New Zealand) and the fact that men in their last three meeting, six of their last seven encounters and nine in their last eleven.

That’s no reason for opposing or backing either side strongly – France overturned a stat which had them losing 4 of their last 5 meetings against England and 3 of their World Cup meetings – but it will give them confidence tomorrow, which the French thrive on.

Some will argue that France didn’t have to do much against England, who were admittedly insipid and lacked ideas in the first half – But the same people had then down as 4/9 favourites and to go in 16-0 at half time was an impressive achievement.

Things are going to be much tougher against a side that should have much to give late on thanks to their fitness regime, and the physical battle is a real worry – France got smashed against Tonga, although they clearly had no intention of playing to their potential then.

Their forward pack isn’t for messing with - Imanol Harinordoquy, Julien Bonnaire , Nicolas Mas and Willam Servat were all magnificent against England and didn’t offer one kickable chance to them in the first half.

Their backs need no introduction with Vincent Clerc joint top for tries scored on 6, along with the threat offered by Maxime Medard -  his eight offloads so far in the World Cup has only two players ahead of him in the rankings – although it’s likely to be the French defence – The weakest defence left here, which leads to the two bets given here.

World Cup semi-finals are meant to be tight cagey affairs if the typical stereotypes are to be believed, but the free scoring nature of both teams leads me to think that 36 points to be scored or more is a good bet. The last ten meetings between the two teams read 28-9, 26-20, 21-16, 29-12, 34-7, 32-21, 21-16, 24-18, 29-22, 33-5, 37-33, 35-43 36-3 – All going well over the mark, and with so much at Stake and France having the leakiest defence in the tournament left, this could be a high scoring game, and the 3.5 try line (4 or more tires to be scored) could also be worth taking on big style, with both of these team’s quarter finals having gone to 4 tries.

Advice

2 pts over 3.5 tries (6/4 general)

2 pts over 36 points scored (5/6 general) 

South Africa v Australia - 1st T20 Preview

South Africa were cruelly denied a World Cup semi – final place by Australia in Rugby Union but the roles can be reversed when they meet at the beginning of Australia’s month-long tour of South Africa.

There’s a concern for some that this will be South Africa's first international in any format since March 25 but home advantage still makes this a close game which may be decided by home advantage.

Despite that gap between matches, plenty says South Africa can win. Australia have won only one of their previous eight Twenty20 internationals, while South Africa have won six of their previous seven, including two defeats to Sri Lanka. Before another World Cup choke the South Africans took two matches off India and they boast a high strike rate in this format.

Australia are still finding their best new team – Three uncapped men include Matthew Wade (wicketkeeper), a situation further explained by the fact that five members of the Twenty20 squad will fly home ahead of the ODIs.

The absence of Brett Lee due to his bout of appendicitis is a massive blow while At 18, Patrick Cummins (described by Shane Watson as "as impressive as I've seen for any young guy coming through for the past ten years") will become Australia's second-youngest debutant in any format.

There should be plenty of motivation for both sides and while having not played a game in 6  months could harm their chances, it’s hard to believe that much fitness work wouldn’t have been done ahead of this match.

Despite having a relatively poor record against Australia Hashim Amla averages 39.05 against the Wallabies and that makes a run mark of 23 look very achievable if he can lead from the front with big runs, so take the 5/6 with Ladbrokes that he does.

Advice

1 pt South Africa (10/11)

2 pts Hashim Amla to make 23 or more runs (5/6 Ladbrokes) 

India v England - 1st ODI Preview

India are popular choices to use home advantage to get their first win in 7 matches when taking on England, who have many strong stats against them as they aim to rise up the ODI Rankings as well as cementing their No.1 test spot, gained by their 4-0 romp over India .

That was followed by a 3-0 ODI win (as well as a T20 victory) but it was a series of finer margins than that indicated and the gap should be closer here thanks to the flat, hard pitches that require massive batting efforts.

It’s funny that the market seemingly doubts England’s ability to do this – The core of their runscoring talent form the test and ODI series remains with Ian Bell, Alistair Cook and Jonathan Trott. Cook might not be a natural fit for ODI’s but Bell made 245 runs in the World Cup (69 of them against India in that tied game, which is discussed below) while Trott had 422 in total.

More doubts arise over Kevin Pietersen, who has struggled for form in this sphere - in the last three years he has managed just 911 runs at 26.79 in 37 one-day internationals, while Eoin Morgan is a big miss for England's batting in terms of quickfire runs.

This is a fascinating opportunity for Chris Woakes, Jade Dernbach and Steven Finn to come to the fore although this is a fierce test for some players that could be green on the International stage and it’s vital that they follow in the footsteps of , Jonny Bairstow and Scott Borthwick, who shone in the final warm-up match before the ODIs begin on Friday.

Over the past 12 months won 18 of their 30 one-dayers and at home over the past two years, they have won 19 of their 28 ODI’s, which does make the 4.5 on a home win look fair value given the tonkings England got when coming here last time.

It should be remembered that their last encounter here was a tie with India having been in control though, and this team is worth leaving alone for one game to show that they’re back to form before then going in on them, and a far more solid bet would be to back their opening partnerships to make more than 26 runs, which seems very fair given that they passed that mark 4 out of 5 times during the series in England.

Advice

3 pts Indian Opening Partnership to make 26 or more runs (5/6 Paddy Power) 

India v England - ODI Series Preview

It says a lot about the reputation of Indian Cricket that the hosts are no better than 8/11 to win a series against a team who have kept them winless in 9 games, but that’s the situation ahead of their first game with England in Hyderabad.

The home side haven’t been beaten by any team other than Australia – Near the peak of their powers at the time – in 13 series of ODI Cricket, and England have been hammered 5-0 and 5-1 on their last two visits in series here. Much has changed in that time though, as the visitors hold the ranking of No.1 test side in the World following a 4-0 destruction of the Indian side.

The three Lions are ahead in the ODI rankings too, leading fifth placed India by just a ratings point going into the series, and given the state of the Indian team, this resembles their best ever chance of a series win in India.

At no point during the ODI series did India ever look like winning – They were 10 balls away from Lord’s but that was a 50/50 with wickets in hand for England, while they weren’t at all far away from the target – and while home conditions will bring about improvement, it’s sorely needed.

India are still missing Sachin Tendulkar, Zaheer Khan, Virender Sehwag and Yuvraj Singh are all while Rahul Dravid has retired and Ashish Nehra has been dropped. It’s lucky for them they can still call on Virat Kohli, Gutham Ghambir, talismanic Captain MS Dohni and Praveen Kumar, although their inexperienced middle order reduces appeal despite England being in the same postion.

Six of the 17-man England squad are on their first tour and it will be fascinating to see what flat wickets and high temperatures do to Jade Dernbach, Steven Finn, and Chris Woakes. This isn’t to criticise them, but many bowlers have been neutralized by Indian pitches and they wouldn’t be the first.

This makes Grahame Swann and Tim Bresnan crucial point of attack for England and with an ankle problem not doing him too much harm judged by his buggy driving antics earlier this week, Swann gets the pick for top series bowler. His ability in India is shown by his 12 World Cup wickets (three more than Bresnan) and this tour should give him a top chance of the title if the emphasis is turned to spin.

England’s batsmen struggled in the practice game against Hyderabad XI but that should have helped them acclimatise to conditions here. Jonathan Trott is no stranger to this climate while Craig Kieswetter’s burgeoning confidence will be aided by a strong showing in the Champions League with Somerset, adding to Alistair Cook and Ian Bell’s experience should prove something reliable to fall back on. It’s unlikely that Ravi Bopara will end up being a gamechanger but the higher his confidence, the better his chance of making a real impact. None of them make that much betting appeal, although Trott is a really solid option for those who want to play in the market.

Should India come roaring back to life in this series, two men that are likely to be on the forefront of their challenge – MS Dohni and Praveen Kumar.  When all were falling in the Test Series, these were the only two who could be seen anywhere, and back in their homeland they should be be capable to topping the wicket taking charts for obvious reasons.

The inexperience of the England team in parts should allow for good opportunities and there’s no way in my mind that Dohni is inferior on a game by game basis to Ghambir, Kohli, Rahane, Raina and Patel, and he certaintly shouldn’t be 7/1. Get on win and each/way with Ladbrokes.

As for Kumar, he doesn’t seem to have much in the way of opposition apart from namesake Virat Kohli and he seems to be the best alternative to the injured Zaheer Khan, so the 3’s about him taking most wickets seems very fair.

Neither sieges price makes that much appeal – Both teams have plenty of players out and India aren’t in the form that suggests a win is a formality – so that’s left alone.

Advice

2 pts Graeme Swann top England Bowler (11/4 Stan James)

1 pt win, 2 pts each/way MS Dohni top India Batsman (7/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Praveen Kumar to be Top Series Bowler (3/1 general) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - New Zealand v Argentina

Tournament favourites New Zealand have with all due respect, been handed the easiest task of any quarter finalists by facing an Argentina side that not many see as comparable to the 2007 side that gained third place.

While their efforts in getting through the pool must be admired, they’ve been flattered to get here. Many missed chances and tackles cost Scotland before they went through for a admittedly superb solo try, and that same team had a good chance to knock them out against England the following week.

While they won’t go the same way as they did 4 years ago, when moving away from their traditional game to try and run the ball wide against South Africa, who mauled them upfront and ran away with it thanks to Bryan Habana, and it’s not impossible the same thing could happen again. Their strong point of defence , having let in only 40 points all tournament, is admirable, but they will need more than that to consider an upset against the hot favourites.

Yes, their forward power is still as relentless as ever, but England were not at their best against them before pace came into it and Scotland threw their game away, having made more than enough opportunities to score. Argentina have scored just 10 tries at the World Cup, 8 of those coming against Romania and Georgia, and it’s likely they could be snuffed out against the hosts in Wellington.

New Zealand still seem to be obsessed with the tournament ending injury of Dan Carter, although Colin Slade – Who had won just five caps before the start of the tournament – seems a competent and pacey replacement who played well enough against Canada and even Piri Weepu has staked a claim.

New Zealand will have a battle onto win the tournament – It should be remembered that both South Africa and Australia stopped them with individual gameplans in the Tri – Nations – but home advantage has clearly settled them and they should be far too good before a heavy hitting semi – final against either South Africa or Australia. The handicap of 27 points is doable but not overly appealing and given that they’ve covered all of their first half handicaps, that’s the bet here giving up 12 points. For more interest a winning margin of 21-30 points also looks like a runner based on the All Blacks defeat of semi – finalists France, which came in at 20.

Advice

3 pts New Zealand -12 on half time handicap (5/6 Paddy Power)

1 pt New Zealand to win by 21-30 points (9/4 Skybet) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Australia v South Africa

Without doubt the most titanic quarter– final, between two teams who harbour genuine ambitions of winning the tournament.  Since struggling to a lucky 17-16 win over Wales, in which their superior experience won them the game, South Africa have improved as you would expect a team that hasn’t played that much rugby together – Most of their second string were playing in the Tri Nations before they beat New Zealand and went down narrowly to the Wallabies on home turf –for a while, with the added caveat of age, would do throughout the World Cup.

Since that encounter with the Welsh, defence has come to the fore – conceding just eight points in the remaining four games, beating Fiji 49-3, Namibia 87-0 and Samoa 13-5. The lack of points scored against Samoa was worrying for some but shows their prowess in low scoring games, while it should be remembered that now semi finalists Wales managed 17 against the Islanders, who are a tough side to get past.

They’ve improved as a unit in that time though and it should weigh on people’s minds that this side is better than the one that went down 39-20 and 9-14 to the Wallabies in the Tri – Nations; They’ve united in typical style in a bid to retain their title.

The problems for South Africa stem from injuries. The loss of Frans Steyn to a shoulder problem picked up against Samoa last Friday is a colossal blow, as his monster boot could easily decide the game. Then you have the loss of Bakkies Botha, the kind of man who is desperately needed to disrupt Australia’s attempt at quick ball.

It’s also a big gamble to pick John Smit, who has not been at his best for the past couple of months, over Bismarck Du Plessis who has been impressive when seen, but that’s where the strength in depth of the side comes in.

Fly Half Morne Steyn is the leading points scorer (53) so far this tournament, while Fourie Du Preez is one of the best no 9’s in the World; If those two can get enough of the ball it’s possible they can make this a real kicking game, which suits the Springboks.

Henrich Brussow is a magnificent fetcher and the battle with Pocock – More on him later - could the decide the tie in itself, so South Africa have all the ingredients there to knock the Wallabies out If they manage to impose themselves early on.

Australia are slight favourites for this, probably based around the fact that they’ve beaten them on their last three meetings (two of those when the South African team weren’t in the best shape) and single headedly with the return of David Pocock.

For those who need to know why he is so effective need only learn that their three worst defeats in the past couple of years, against Scotland, Samoa and Ireland, have all come when Pocock is absent. Along with Kurtley Bealte and Digby Iaone returning, there’s no doubting that Austria have their first choice outfit and their backline does have it in them to run around the boks.

That will be easier said than done against a side which has become adept at arm wrestling teams over the past two months and keeping the score down. It took Australia 40 minutes to get past Italy while Ireland’s gameplan of stifling them in the end worked a treat; While the creative force that is Pocock was missing there, South Africa are one of few teams that should be able to make him struggle and this could be a real arm wrestle.

Our position on South Africa to win the tournament makes this a tricky spot, as this tie isn’t really for calling – Whatever way you go, 1-12 points in the winning margin looks a huge runner. The one bet that makes appeal here is the 5/6 about under 40 points, which should be a real runner If South Africa can get their hands on the ball and keep things tight.

Advice

2 pts under 40 pts (5/6 Skybet) 

Rugby World Cup 2011 - Ireland v Wales

Single handily, the defeat of Australia by Ireland has set up four mouth-watering quarter finals, and the first of four Quarter finals that few would have through would happen before the tournament, although it goes to show just why you shouldn’t underestimate any side in the tournament.

The whole situation we have now was set up by Ireland’s win over Australia, a performance probably still to be bettered this tournament. That was built on the foundations of a strong defence - they’ve let in only three tries, all of them in a non-event against Russia, conceding only 34 points in the process - , unmoveable scrum, and clinical attack, which was even more evident against Italy when a second half burst of 27 unanswered points turned almost as many heads as their win against Australia.

The availability and form of Ronan O’Gara combined with Johnny Sexton means their goal kicking can be relied upon to pull a game out of the fire but 5 tries from Keith Earls shows attacking prowess – While Tommy Bowe, desperately unlucky not to score against Australia, being denied a legitimate touchdown disallowed and being refused a penalty try in the final throw of the game.

With the likes of Gordan D'Arcy, Paul O’Connell and Conor Murray Ireland have genuine quality flowing through from 1-15 and can see off the threat of a Wales side playing as well as they’ve done since their Grand slam wins of 2005/8.

A desperately unlucky opening game defeat to South Africa has been followed up with three impressive wins, turning on the style against Nambia and Fiji, having edged Samoa in a tight physical game.

All of their results since suggest their superiority against South Africa is not in doubt and their low total of points conceded suggest they will make things hard for Ireland – They did beat them in the 6 Nations, although many will question a dubious Mike Phillips try that settled it after Matheew Rees’s wrongly placed lineout. It should be a close and titanic battle, but Ireland look worth a chance to go to their first semi – final in this tournament, with the winning margin markets offering good value given how tight games between these two are. 

Advice: 2 pts Ireland to win by 1-12 points (6/4 general)

Rugby World Cup 2011 - England v France

Despite a hideous pool stage, which was surely their worst in World Cup History, I just can’t safely write off tournament tips France. They’re too mercurial to purely put out of the reckoning, despite their poor defeat against Tonga which nearly put them out – Had Vincent Clerc not kept his cool they’d be in Paris already – when they went for a scrum instead of a penalty.

Much of the problem with France lies with attitude, and this is why so much rests on Marc Livremont. His tinkering through the group stages hasn’t worked but that’s been nowhere near the main problem; His unnerving criticism of player performances has led the squad to near revolt and his awful 9-10 defensive combination has been brutally exposed in the last two matches.

It should be as safe as houses for England based on that evidence but there’s reason to think things can change. The relationship between Livremont and the players has improved of late – According to the coach they’ve met and had a team meeting to talk about issues, as shown below.

Circa BBC Sport;

“On Sunday they held a "no holds barred' bonding session and a hard-tackling training session the following day designed to let off the steam that has been building since the scrappy opening win over Japan.”

Lievremont scheduled a meeting to enable players to speak honestly, something several members of the squad felt had been missing throughout the tournament.

"Everyone wanted to say 'I got it wrong'," said Nallet. "Since we've arrived in New Zealand we haven't had the mentality to conquer anything whatsoever. "Everyone wanted to take their share of the blame and tell the others they will be ready this weekend."

France's defence coach Dave Ellis played down the extent of the internal problems, both within his own squad and those experienced by England, saying: "I think certain things that have been mentioned in the press have been taken out of context. "We had a meeting on Sunday and since then it's all been good, it's been good the whole time really.”

That’s not a cast iron picture of happy squad but it provides a hint that the team may be uniting, and the two changes that Livremont has made may be critical; Nicolas Mas will replace Luc Ducalcon at tighthead prop, while number eight Imanol Harinordoquy starts ahead of Raphael Lakafia.

That physicality is badly needed against a side who turned over France at the breakdown on numerous occasions in their last meeting at Twickenham, but all of this could be in vain if Livremont refuses to take Parra away from Scrum half; Reports suggest he won’t.

France have the capability to pull out massive performances; New Zealand need no reminding of their 18-20 win, while they went and beat the All Blacks again at Eden Park before then going down only 14-10. If that kind of France turns up, there’s trouble about, however unlikely it seems. England will come into this game confident and seeking blood; A winning streak of 5 games against a team seemingly in disarray. Their record against the French in all completions’ including the World Cup is immaculate, despite the fact that errors have sorted the two on more than one occasion.

The 8/5 about an England win by 1-12 points seems worthy of a strong bet, as does the -.1.5 second half now draw handicap, but those would be contradictory and with the risks of France turning up given that England have had slow patches this tournament, neither gets the vote here. 

The most interesting price on offer at the time of writing is Sportingbet’s offer of Below 34 points at 8/5; Since August 2007 7 games have been played and 4 have gone under that mark, with two of the three that went over doing so by 10, 3, and 4 points, making unders look a good option, so that gets topped up with under 39 points at 5/6 with most firms.

Advice: 2 pts Under 39 points (5/6 general), 1 pt under 34 points (8/5 Sportingbet)