Saturday, 8 October 2011

Rugby World Cup 2011 - New Zealand v Argentina


Tournament favourites New Zealand have with all due respect, been handed the easiest task of any quarter finalists by facing an Argentina side that not many see as comparable to the 2007 side that gained third place.

While their efforts in getting through the pool must be admired, they’ve been flattered to get here. Many missed chances and tackles cost Scotland before they went through for a admittedly superb solo try, and that same team had a good chance to knock them out against England the following week.

While they won’t go the same way as they did 4 years ago, when moving away from their traditional game to try and run the ball wide against South Africa, who mauled them upfront and ran away with it thanks to Bryan Habana, and it’s not impossible the same thing could happen again. Their strong point of defence , having let in only 40 points all tournament, is admirable, but they will need more than that to consider an upset against the hot favourites.

Yes, their forward power is still as relentless as ever, but England were not at their best against them before pace came into it and Scotland threw their game away, having made more than enough opportunities to score. Argentina have scored just 10 tries at the World Cup, 8 of those coming against Romania and Georgia, and it’s likely they could be snuffed out against the hosts in Wellington.

New Zealand still seem to be obsessed with the tournament ending injury of Dan Carter, although Colin Slade – Who had won just five caps before the start of the tournament – seems a competent and pacey replacement who played well enough against Canada and even Piri Weepu has staked a claim.

New Zealand will have a battle onto win the tournament – It should be remembered that both South Africa and Australia stopped them with individual gameplans in the Tri – Nations – but home advantage has clearly settled them and they should be far too good before a heavy hitting semi – final against either South Africa or Australia. The handicap of 27 points is doable but not overly appealing and given that they’ve covered all of their first half handicaps, that’s the bet here giving up 12 points. For more interest a winning margin of 21-30 points also looks like a runner based on the All Blacks defeat of semi – finalists France, which came in at 20.

Advice

3 pts New Zealand -12 on half time handicap (5/6 Paddy Power)

1 pt New Zealand to win by 21-30 points (9/4 Skybet) 

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