Rugby World Cup 2011 - Final

It’s been 24 long years since New Zealand won the inaugural World Cup but only fate it seems would lie between them and the Webb Ellis trophy once again, according to their best price of 1/9 to win the final on Sunday.

Put out by their Australian enemies in 1991 and 2003, then outfought in extra time by South Africa in 1995, the All Blacks have twice been put out of the World Cup by France. Cristophe Dominici’s sheer brilliance taking his side to a 34-21 win before Bernard Laporte’s men came from well behind to condemn Henry’s All Blacks to their worst ever finish at a World Cup.

While followers of this blog will already be happy with the French performance, having backed them each/way for the World Cup and also without New Zealand, they’ve not impressed in any real game apart from when running straight through England in the first half of their quarter final, although what resistance they offered was questionable.

Last weekend's semi-final win over a 14-man Wales was gained through sheer nerve and luck – the Welsh missed plenty of chances to win the game – with the only real positive being how France held on from the multi phase assault that Wales launched late on.

Morgan Parra, Vincent Clerc, Thierry Dusatoir and Imanol Harinordquy have all stepped up to the plate big style in the latter stages but that doesn’t take away from the fact that they’ll need the game of their lives to give France a chance of winning the World Cup.

The French campaign has been fraught with problems, many of them coming from the coach himself, Marc Livremont. After a struggling win over Japan, Lievremont laid the blame at the feet of some of his experienced charges, with Dimitri Yachvili, Imanol Harinordoquy and Francois Trinh-Duc all coming under the spotlight for performances which he deemed to be "lackadaisical".

More poor performances followed throughout the pool stages before the improvement that saw them get to the final, but there’s still a feeling that they need to improve by a large margin to give the All Blacks a proper game. That’s not impossible – The French were one of the only teams to have New Zealand in trouble when they battered them for 10 first half minutes – and their defence did hold out well against Wales, but that was against a 14 man side and it looks like they’ll be losing finalists again.

New Zealand’s route to the final has been relatively simple – An easy pool stage was followed with a convincing win against Argentina, but only after struggling for a while in the first half – but the real plaudits were achieved with the 20-6 win over Australia, where the early try from Ma Nonu saw them on their way to one of the most impressive wins of the tournament.

That performance again will win and see them cover the handicap, but a New Zealand try to be the first scoring play looks value at 7/2. The French could defend for their lives and make this a cagey final but an early score would do wonders for Graham Henry’s side and it’s not impossible to imagine them starting with a flyer.  This would also make the 5/6 about the first try coming before 20 minutes – Something that has happened in 5 of the 6 matches that New Zealand have played in.

The two to do this could well be Cory Jane and Israel Dagg, who have both excelled of late and may have the path cleared for them by their forward pack, who were so brilliant in pushing back Australia. At around 2/1 to score a try, the pair look interesting, but the first tryscorer odds make even more appeal with Bet365 going 4 and ¼ places.  

A handicap of 15 points should also not stand in their way is stats are to be believed but the second half handicap probably offers more value, with France having been at their weakest late on in this tournament.

To add to that, a drop goal being scored also looks like a stat to have on your side – New Zealand won’t be averse to trying if they need and scoring a try looks beyond France if they play as badly as they did against Wales – so the 5/6 about that eventuality looks like it could be well worth taking.

Advice

1 pt First try before and inc 21 minutes (10/11 Paddy Power)

1 pt New Zealand Try first scoring play (7/2 general)

1 pt Drop Goal in match (5/6 Betfred)

1 pt New Zealand -7.5 on second half handicap (4/5 Betfred)

1 pt each/way Cory Jane first tryscorer (8/1 Bet365)

 1 pt each/way Israel Dagg first tryscorer (9/1 Bet365)


Man Of The Match 

If New Zealand win the World Cup Final – They’re a 1/9 shot to do so – then they’ll almost certainly get the man of the match award and who better than Richie McCaw to get it? With Dan Carter out the Rugby fanatics of New Zealand have turned to the talismanic Captain to carry their hopes and he responded in fantastic style with his dismantling of David Pocock at the breakdown in the semi – final. It’s impossible to see him having as much pressure here on his shoulders and the 13/2 that he’s called Man Of The Match in what might be his last World Cup game is too big to ignore.

If he doesn’t though, the scrum half of Piri Weepu who brought New Zealand through their Quarter – final in one piece, may well be a big runner, with possible kicking duties in a game that could be made tight if France are to turn up. Aaaron Cruden’s young shoulders coped admirably when he had to carry the 10 jersey in the absence of Colin Slade but the game might not be decided by just a few kicks and it wouldn’t surprise if he got a few shots at goal too.

Advice – Man Of The Match

1 pt Richie McCaw (13/2 Betfred)

1 pt Piri Weepu (9/1 Paddy Power)