Without doubt the most titanic quarter– final, between two
teams who harbour genuine ambitions of winning the tournament. Since struggling to a lucky 17-16 win over
Wales, in which their superior experience won them the game, South Africa have
improved as you would expect a team that hasn’t played that much rugby together
– Most of their second string were playing in the Tri Nations before they beat
New Zealand and went down narrowly to the Wallabies on home turf –for a while,
with the added caveat of age, would do throughout the World Cup.
Since that encounter with the Welsh, defence has come to the
fore – conceding just eight points in the remaining four games, beating Fiji
49-3, Namibia 87-0 and Samoa 13-5. The lack of points scored against Samoa was
worrying for some but shows their prowess in low scoring games, while it should
be remembered that now semi finalists Wales managed 17 against the Islanders,
who are a tough side to get past.
They’ve improved as a unit in that time though and it should
weigh on people’s minds that this side is better than the one that went down
39-20 and 9-14 to the Wallabies in the Tri – Nations; They’ve united in typical
style in a bid to retain their title.
The problems for South Africa stem from injuries. The loss
of Frans Steyn to a shoulder problem picked up against Samoa last Friday is a
colossal blow, as his monster boot could easily decide the game. Then you have the
loss of Bakkies Botha, the kind of man who is desperately needed to disrupt Australia’s
attempt at quick ball.
It’s also a big gamble to pick John Smit, who has not been
at his best for the past couple of months, over Bismarck Du Plessis who has
been impressive when seen, but that’s where the strength in depth of the side
comes in.
Fly Half Morne Steyn is the leading points scorer (53) so
far this tournament, while Fourie Du Preez is one of the best no 9’s in the
World; If those two can get enough of the ball it’s possible they can make this
a real kicking game, which suits the Springboks.
Henrich Brussow is a magnificent fetcher and the battle with
Pocock – More on him later - could the decide the tie in itself, so South
Africa have all the ingredients there to knock the Wallabies out If they manage
to impose themselves early on.
Australia are slight favourites for this, probably based around
the fact that they’ve beaten them on their last three meetings (two of those
when the South African team weren’t in the best shape) and single headedly with
the return of David Pocock.
For those who need to know why he is so effective need only
learn that their three worst defeats in the past couple of years, against
Scotland, Samoa and Ireland, have all come when Pocock is absent. Along with Kurtley
Bealte and Digby Iaone returning, there’s no doubting that Austria have their
first choice outfit and their backline does have it in them to run around the
boks.
That will be easier said than done against a side which has
become adept at arm wrestling teams over the past two months and keeping the
score down. It took Australia 40 minutes to get past Italy while Ireland’s
gameplan of stifling them in the end worked a treat; While the creative force
that is Pocock was missing there, South Africa are one of few teams that should
be able to make him struggle and this could be a real arm wrestle.
Our position on South Africa to win the tournament makes
this a tricky spot, as this tie isn’t really for calling – Whatever way you go,
1-12 points in the winning margin looks a huge runner. The one bet that makes
appeal here is the 5/6 about under 40 points, which should be a real runner If South
Africa can get their hands on the ball and keep things tight.
Advice
2 pts under 40 pts (5/6 Skybet)
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