With finalists France probably underserving of the place,
fans of World Cup favourites New Zealand and Tri-Nations champions Australia
can almost taste the Webb Ellis trophy if performances are to be believed.
Going by that same logic, the All Blacks will make it to
their first final since 1995 if performances are to be believed. When they knocked out South Africa the
Springboks had 76% of territory, had more than 11 minutes in their 22, and had
to make only 53 tackles all game.
The whole reason that Australia won was because in response
to that, they made an astonishing 147 tackles to protect their fragile lead,
gained through a rare South African mistakes when trying to run the ball from
their own 22. How they will try and stop New Zealand is a question that requires
a serious response but the All Blacks are not an infallible team, as was shown
by their two defeats when going for the Tri – Nations, the first when stopped
by a physical South African team and the second when ripped apart by the
Australian backline, going in 20-3 down at half time.
Those same players - Adam
Ashley-Cooper; James O'Connor, Anthony Faingaa, Pat McCabe, Digby Ioane; Quade
Cooper and Will Genia – haven’t quite arrived at the part this season but they
get one massive last chance to do so here, although Australia will need to get
hands on the ball far more than they have done and then get past a resolute defence
which has let no more than 17 points in one game all tournament.
New Zealand were made to struggle by Argentina for long
periods but drew away late on, thanks to the calm awareness and goalkicking
accuracy of Piri Weepu, who’s importance cannot be underestimated given the injury
to Dan Carter – so important in games between these two – and his understudy
Colin Slade, which leaves the massive pressure on the young shoulders of Aaron
Cruden, who makes only his second start in Test rugby.
Twice they have been eliminated at the semi-final stage by
Australia, in 1991 and 2003, but the crucial difference is that the crowd was
very much neutral and the intimating venue that is Eden Park may well swing it
in favour of the hosts.
The Aussies haven’t won in New Zealand for 12 test matches
and while they get a chance at what some would call a weakened All Black’s
side, the loss of Kurtley Beale is a massive one to their chances and Quade
Cooper cannot afford to be as poor as he was against South Africa and Ireland.
It all has the makings of a very tight game but the firm
verdict is behind New Zeland to get home by 1-12 points – The Wallabies should
put up a stiff resistance in defence and will have their backers at the prices,
but New Zealand offer more than South Africa in terms of running backs and
should break through once or twice.
Advice
3 pts New Zealand to win by 1-12 points (13/8 general)
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