Wales, a best priced 100/1 with Blue Square to win the
tournament and 4/1 to reach this stage beforehand, have probably been the
impost impressive team this tournament given that people expected Australia and
New Zealand to get to this stage with relative comfort (they did, but not
easily) – and that today’s opponents and ante – post picks France didn’t face
the same task against England that Wales did against Ireland.
Warren Gatland’s team are thriving at the moment off the
back of the confidence gained in an exemplary display against South Africa in
which they lost by a point but should have won by 6, following that up with
strong displays three impressive wins, turning on the style against Nambia and
Fiji, having edged Samoa in a tight physical game.
When Wales get on a roll they take some stopping – their two
Grand Slams were based on this sort of play – and the prospect of them winning
this whole World Cup, let alone the match tomorrow, Is very real and the country’s
confidence is justified.
By this logic the remaining 10/11 with Boylesports at the
time of writing is a cracking bet but I wouldn’t be steaming in for two
reasons: Our ante post position on France (10’s for the WC itself, and then 11/2
w/o New Zealand) and the fact that men in their last three meeting, six of
their last seven encounters and nine in their last eleven.
That’s no reason for opposing or backing either side
strongly – France overturned a stat which had them losing 4 of their last 5
meetings against England and 3 of their World Cup meetings – but it will give
them confidence tomorrow, which the French thrive on.
Some will argue that France didn’t have to do much against
England, who were admittedly insipid and lacked ideas in the first half – But the
same people had then down as 4/9 favourites and to go in 16-0 at half time was
an impressive achievement.
Things are going to be much tougher against a side that
should have much to give late on thanks to their fitness regime, and the
physical battle is a real worry – France got smashed against Tonga, although
they clearly had no intention of playing to their potential then.
Their forward pack isn’t for messing with - Imanol
Harinordoquy, Julien Bonnaire , Nicolas Mas and Willam Servat were all magnificent
against England and didn’t offer one kickable chance to them in the first half.
Their backs need no introduction with Vincent Clerc joint
top for tries scored on 6, along with the threat offered by Maxime Medard - his eight offloads so far in the World Cup has
only two players ahead of him in the rankings – although it’s likely to be the
French defence – The weakest defence left here, which leads to the two bets
given here.
World Cup semi-finals are meant to be tight cagey affairs if
the typical stereotypes are to be believed, but the free scoring nature of both
teams leads me to think that 36 points to be scored or more is a good bet. The
last ten meetings between the two teams read 28-9, 26-20, 21-16, 29-12, 34-7,
32-21, 21-16, 24-18, 29-22, 33-5, 37-33, 35-43 36-3 – All going well over the
mark, and with so much at Stake and France having the leakiest defence in the
tournament left, this could be a high scoring game, and the 3.5 try line (4 or
more tires to be scored) could also be worth taking on big style, with both of
these team’s quarter finals having gone to 4 tries.
Advice
2 pts over 3.5 tries (6/4 general)
2 pts over 36 points scored (5/6 general)
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