South Africa v Sri Lanka - 2nd Test Preview

With Australia and India going head to head, South Africa are in danger of being overlooked in their Boxing Day clash with Sri Lanka, probably because many would assume that it’s now a done deal after their first test walkover.

That was an excellent response to a disappointing defeat against Australia with the series at their mercy and they should be looking to stamp their claims of being the second best test side in the world again – along with their unpcoming clash with England next summer.

As far as I’m concerned the result looks like a formality with Sri Lanka looking like a team in regression unable to build partnerships – their highest in the first Innings was just 54 and three out of the highest 5 match partnerships in the match (don’t forget that South Africa won by an Innings) were held by the Proteas.

 

Statisicians will be wary of the fact that the last time South Africa won a Test at Kingsmead was in 2008, against West Indies, but since then, they’ve lost to Australia, England and India, all of whom are superior to this Sri Lanka side.

Talisman Kumar Sangakarra seems to have lost his best touch over the past few months while the highest individual score was just 38 in the first innings – it was 32 in the second – which shows some serious issues at the heart of their batting.

In fact, in eight of their last 9 tests Sri Lanka have conceded a first innings lead – on no occasions did that lead drop below 112, which makes the line that Sportingbet offer well worth taking on the first innings lead handicap.

This can be exploited through Ladbrokes’ match betting handicaps, which see Graham Smith being asked to give eight runs and a beating to Tillakaratne Dilshan, who scored 6 in both innings at Centurion. Smith meanwhile, made 37, 101, 11 and 36 against Australia in the two match series and should be looking to make a half century at least again.

If Jacques Rudolph – who arrived at Kingsmead two days before the rest of the South Africa players to start early practice – can get his act together then one might fancy him enough to outperform Tharanga Paranavitana, but the in and out performances of the opener, who has scored 29,0,0,55,46,2,37,0,6,72,4,76,32 & 4 put me off as Rudolph has had a problem converting good starts. Since his recall to the Rudolph has scored 18, 14, 30, 24, and 44, which isn’t quite solid enough to make him a bet.

Hashim Amla has the same problem from a betting perspective. Two hundreds against Australia confirmed his status as one of the best in the game but those were accompanied by scores of 3 and 19 and he made just 18 in at Centurion. Sangakarra has lost his touch too (scores of just 1 and 2 on this tour) but could well bounce back and he has a great all round record, while not convincing on a recent basis.

Given the reliability of Mayhela Jayawardenene, I’ll spare asking Jacques Kallis to give 5 runs and a beating to the latter named, but AB De Villers, so unlucky not to get a century at Centurion, can add to his excellent record here – he averages just under 45 at the venue – which would see him give 10 runs and a beating to the solid but unspectacular looking Thilan Samaraweera, while Angelo Prince could also prove vulnerable based on his dodgy form of late, although neither constitutes a major bet.

Advice

3 pts South Africa -111.5 on First innings lead handicap (10/11 Sportingbet)

1 pt AB De Villers – 9.5 v Thilan Samaraweera (5/6 Labdrokes)

1 pt Graham Smith -7.5 v Tillakaratne Dilshan (5/6 Ladbrokes)

Australia v India - 1st Test preview

The Boxing Day showcase test has long been a victory parade for Australia, but they’ve fallen from those great heights since, or more simply, they’ve been pushed off the top spot by England, who condemned Australia to their lowest score against England in Australia for 122 years and then went onto win the Ashes 3-1.

They took top spot through beating India, and the race to be the main contenders to England’s dominance now gets a little more interesting with two of the biggest nations going head to head in what could literally be a coin toss.

Firstly, you have Australia, who were the first real victims of England’s dominance when wilting to the Ashes defeat, although things haven’t really gone their way since during the year long transition. A promising 1-0 series win against Sri Lanka doesn’t look as good now in light of that team’s limp showings and the only problem since has been a tendency for massively inconsistent showings.

A horrendous collapse against South Africa – the memorable 47 all out in “that” Wanderers test match – was followed by a nailbiting test win gained largely through the nerve and skill of Pat Cummings, who is sadly out for this series through injury.

Then comes what should be a stroll against New Zealand – a side that had won only 4 of their last 28 tests and came close to being beaten by Zimbabwe, with only Bangladesh below them in the Test rankings. They did win the first test easily but were humiliated in the second test when Dougie Bracewell finished with nine wickets for a measly 60 runs and demolished the Australian middle order in the second innings taking three wickets in nine balls to set up his team's victory.

What can be inferred from this is that while Australia are beginning to find their flaws, they still remain a year on. That said, they’ve got firepower in abundance when on their game if results are to be taken literally, and are beginning to build a side which can challenge England next year, albeit with a long way to go still.

That’s still more than can be said about India, who were exposed as a side in decline against England, and they’ve made less progress than Australia in finding new talents despite the arrival of Ravichandran Ashwin and Virat Kohli.

A 2-0 Test series win against the seventh ranked side in the world proves nothing in terms of improvement, and that same side could still be crippled by the same problems; An ageing batting line – up, lazy fielding, lack of a classy offspinner, an aversion to proper fast blowing, and lack of the same product in kind.

MS Dohni’s side were more convincing with the first test behind them but then looked in danger of losing the third test, before playing out a thrilling, albeit unconvincing draw, and it’s very debateable whether they’ve made improvement since. Their record on the road isn’t particularly brilliant – they have won just half of the series they’ve played on the road since 2005 – and this is a stiff test of their credentials.

As said when previewing India’s second test against the Windies, what must also be remembered is that India improve massively for their first test of a series.  Over the last decade, and excluding tours to Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, India have a 4-9 win-loss record in first Tests of away series, with the four wins coming in Pakistan, South Africa, New Zealand and West Indies. In second Tests, on the other hand, they've won six times and lost only four, which means their win-loss ratio in second Tests is almost three-and-a-half times times their first-Test ratio.

With wins in Kandy (2001), Port of Spain (2002), Adelaide (2003), Trent Bridge (2007), Galle (2008) and Durban (2010), India’s second test record far outstrips their first. Twice in the last three years, India have bounced back to win the second Test after losing the first - in Sri Lanka in 2008, and in South Africa last year.

With that in mind, Australia edge the vote to continue their fine run of form at home, and take a 1-0 lead in the series.

Advice

2 pts Australia (5/4 Ladbrokes) 

Australia v India - Series Preview

Following the comprehensive wins over Australia and India that made England the No 1 test side in the world, no team has yet to put up a credible challenge to their crown, which is part of the reason that this series between  two of the world's leading sides.

Since their Ashes defeat, inquires have been ordered, chances made, and most importantly, new talents found in the bowling department. This seems to be far more conclusive than India, who haven’t really made any significant improvement since – apart from finding the admittedly impressive Virat Kohli – and their one series against the West Indies was in India, which is a futile exercise given that a large part of their failings have come away from home against proper fast bowling.

India are by no means hopeless – Indeed, a best price of 3’s can be made to look very big if their middle and top order show up on their game – but more of their chance than is comfortable relies on the fitness of Zaheer Khan and their record in Australia (never won a test) or away in general, with defeats against England, Sri Lanka, and South Africa recently.

Australia may have serious problems of collapsing at any given moment – they slumped to a test against New Zealand because of said problem – but they’ve begun their rebuilding problem a lot faster than the visitors have, which is proven by these stats (remember, this is from a defeat to a side ranked only above Bangladesh in the ICC rankings) -  James Pattinson (14 wickets), Nathan Lyon (10 wickets), David Warner (153 runs) – while Pat Cummings, who won Australia their test in Johannesburg, is still to come back into the sides.

At the very least, Ed Cowan is among the runs, Ben Hilfenhaus has improved since his poor Ashes (and faces an easier task any way this time round), Michtell Starc bowled well against New Zealand and the rest of the squad includes established names like Michael Hussey, Brad Haddin, and Cpatain Michael Clarke.

India can call on a top class resume too – Dravid (319), VVX Laxman (298), Shewag (245), Tendulkar (218), Ghambir (195) and MS Dohni (165) – all scored well against the West Indies, but all apart from MS Dohni and Rahul Dravid struggled badly against proper quicks back in the summer and there are worries about the same happening here to a similar extent.

With that in mind, the 2-1 series correct score (in favour of the hosts) is an interesting bet. It’s been the final result in the last two home series for the Wallabies and with their quick bowling, along with their collapses of late, makes it an interesting option.

A best price of 13/10 for Australia to win the series is a little too short for my linking – you can get the same price on them winning an individual test on their own – and none of the other prices available really take interest either, with India just a tad too short at 3/1 to consider value.

India’s bowling looks light, unless you count Zaheer Khan. He’s the best fast bowler that India have and could be a class above, but he’s nowhere near fully fit – he’s bolwed only 15 overs on the tour – and he could take too much time to warm up to the task. With Praveen Kumar unavailable (injured rib) and Ishant Sharma no fitter than Khan, it’s a market best left (neither spinner convinces).

There’s more strength in depth to Australia’s bowling but James Pattinson, 15 wickets against New Zealand, might be worth a bet to outperform Peter Siddle and the rest of the Australian bowlers. He’s got no Pat Cummings to deal with and should be given more over than the 60.8 he was given in relation to Siddle’s 78, so probably shouldn’t be 2 points bigger with Victor Chandler. Nathan Lyon’s price of 5/1 with Stan James is beginning to look a bit big but the advantage may be with the quicks given Indian batsmen ability’s to play spin.

Indian battling was abysmal against England and while much improved against the West Indies, they face a tougher test here. If the top order struggle again then MS Dohni could be given a bigger crack at things – he barely gets a chance when India are dominant – and prices of 14/1 in places are an insult to his abilities. Ladbrokes are only 12/1 but they allow for 1/5^th the odds a place and that looks more than fair.

Australia’s charge may well be led by Michael Clarke, who has top scored on the last two tours and will be looking to make it a hat trick on this tour. India’s possible weakness in the quick bowling department should help him in this department and while there are several others capable of taking the top title, there’s an assured class about the batsmen which leads me to thinking that he’ll be the most reliable on this tour.

Advice

1 pt 2 – 1 Australia (11/2 general)

1 pt each/way MS Dohni top Indian runscorer (12/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Michael Clarke top Australian runscorer (4/1 Ladbrokes)

1 pt James Pattinson top Australian bowler (7/2 VC Bet) 

Heineken Cup - 17th December 2011

Aironi (6) v Ulster (1/7)

With qualification on the line, Ulster will be motivated for a big win here and can give up at 12 point handicap. Narrow defeats on the road against Glasgow and Leicester aren’t anything to be ashamed of and with a 22 point win over their Italian opponents at home to their name, a similar margin is possible today.

Advice: 2 pts Ulster -12 (10/11 general)

Leicester (8/15) v Clermont (15/8)

The home record of these teams – Leicester are unbeaten in 17 home games in Europe and Clermont have won only two of their 10 away days on the continent – is the main reason behind Leicester’s status as favourites. If that’s correct, the hosts can lead at half and full time.

Advice: 1 pt Leicester/Leicester (11/10 bwin)

London Irish (2/7) v Racing Metro (7/2)

London Irish had 20 points in hand when they played Racing Metro in France and at home, a 12 point handicap is a realistic aim. There’s lots of motivation for Irish, who should be able to count on good home support to get the result they need.

Advice: 2 pts London Irish -8 (evs Hills)

Gloucester (1/10) v Connaught (10)

Gloucester had only 4 points in hand when scraping away with a win in Galway, so handicaps of 16 points can’t really be seriously entertained – in their favour at least. While Coonaught could be blown out of the water, the suspicion, is that they’re going to be able to put up a good fight at the least there.  

Advice: 1 pt Connaught +16 (10/11 general)

Montpellier (4/9) v Glasgow (13/5)

Glasgow should put up a stiff resistance to Montpellier in a bid to any hope of overhauling defending champions Leinster at the top of the pool, but the return of captain Fulgence Ouedraogo, Georgian powerhouse Mamuka Gorgodze and  fly-half Francois Trinh-Duc could well be enough to swing things in the reverse direction.

Advice: 1 pt Montpellier to win by 1-12 (13/8 Stan James)

Leinster (1/10) v Bath (10)

Leinster were back to their typical selves last weekend when Ireland fly-half Jonathan Sexton kicked six penalties - three during a 15-minute spell in the second period – and they should be able to get much more points on the board this weekend. They are capable of covering a 15 point handicap but might also be able to score 30 or more points.

Advice:  1 pt Leinster to score 30 or more (5/6 general) 

Heineken Cup - 16th December 2011

Biarritz (1/7) v Treviso (7)

Enthusiasm about getting involved with the home side is massively tempered by the fact that just a week ago Biarritz were turned over in Italy, and the forecast tonight suggests gale force winds and heavy rain, which hardly lends itself to wide margin wins. A small margin home win could be the best choice but a handicap of 14 points should prove pretty hard to pass.

Advice: 2 pts Treviso +14 (10/11 general)

Edinbrugh (4/3) v Cardiff (4/5)

Edinbrugh, so much harder to beat at Murrayfield than anywhere else, will be massively boosted by their remarkable win against Racing Metro here. Cardiff have already gone to Racing Metro and won though, so a trip like this will hold no fears and they might be able to edge a tight effai.

Advice: 1 pt Cardiff to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Stan James)

Ospreys (4/6) v Saracens (13/8)

Home advantage seems to be deciding the prices here but that’s not surprising given that they’re unbeaten at home in the strong looking PRO12 this season. Ospreys definitely seem to be a second half side, so how about the Saracens/Ospreys double result at 7/1? It’s not impossible that the English Champions will go for the kill early – they can put one foot in the knockout rounds with a win tonight – and Ospreys looked down and out before grabbing a losing bonus point in London last weekend.  For cover, back Ospreys to make 12 or more points during the second half, as their strong showings this season suggest they will score more after the break.

Advice: 1 pt Saracens/Ospreys (7/1 Sportingbet), 2 pts Ospreys to score more than 12 second half points (11/10 Ladbrokes)