The Boxing Day showcase test has long been a victory parade
for Australia, but they’ve fallen from those great heights since, or more
simply, they’ve been pushed off the top spot by England, who condemned Australia
to their lowest score against England in Australia for 122 years and then went
onto win the Ashes 3-1.
They took top spot through beating India, and the race to be
the main contenders to England’s dominance now gets a little more interesting
with two of the biggest nations going head to head in what could literally be a
coin toss.
Firstly, you have Australia, who were the first real victims
of England’s dominance when wilting to the Ashes defeat, although things
haven’t really gone their way since during the year long transition. A
promising 1-0 series win against Sri Lanka doesn’t look as good now in light of
that team’s limp showings and the only problem since has been a tendency for
massively inconsistent showings.
A horrendous collapse against South Africa – the memorable
47 all out in “that” Wanderers test match – was followed by a nailbiting test
win gained largely through the nerve and skill of Pat Cummings, who is sadly
out for this series through injury.
Then comes what should be a stroll against New Zealand – a
side that had won only 4 of their last 28 tests and came close to being beaten
by Zimbabwe, with only Bangladesh below them in the Test rankings. They did win
the first test easily but were humiliated in the second test when Dougie
Bracewell finished with nine wickets for a measly 60 runs and demolished the
Australian middle order in the second innings taking three wickets in nine
balls to set up his team's victory.
What can be inferred from this is that while Australia are
beginning to find their flaws, they still remain a year on. That said, they’ve
got firepower in abundance when on their game if results are to be taken
literally, and are beginning to build a side which can challenge England next
year, albeit with a long way to go still.
That’s still more than can be said about India, who were
exposed as a side in decline against England, and they’ve made less progress
than Australia in finding new talents despite the arrival of Ravichandran Ashwin
and Virat Kohli.
A 2-0 Test series win against the seventh ranked side in the
world proves nothing in terms of improvement, and that same side could still be
crippled by the same problems; An ageing batting line – up, lazy fielding, lack
of a classy offspinner, an aversion to proper fast blowing, and lack of the
same product in kind.
MS Dohni’s side were more convincing with the first test
behind them but then looked in danger of losing the third test, before playing
out a thrilling, albeit unconvincing draw, and it’s very debateable whether
they’ve made improvement since. Their record on the road isn’t particularly
brilliant – they have won just half of the series they’ve played on the road
since 2005 – and this is a stiff test of their credentials.
As said when previewing India’s second test against the
Windies, what must also be remembered is that India improve massively for their
first test of a series. Over the last
decade, and excluding tours to Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, India have a 4-9
win-loss record in first Tests of away series, with the four wins coming in
Pakistan, South Africa, New Zealand and West Indies. In second Tests, on the
other hand, they've won six times and lost only four, which means their
win-loss ratio in second Tests is almost three-and-a-half times times their
first-Test ratio.
With wins in Kandy (2001), Port of Spain (2002), Adelaide
(2003), Trent Bridge (2007), Galle (2008) and Durban (2010), India’s second
test record far outstrips their first. Twice in the last three years, India
have bounced back to win the second Test after losing the first - in Sri Lanka
in 2008, and in South Africa last year.
With that in mind, Australia edge the vote to continue their
fine run of form at home, and take a 1-0 lead in the series.
Advice
2 pts Australia (5/4 Ladbrokes)
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