With Australia and India going head to head, South Africa
are in danger of being overlooked in their Boxing Day clash with Sri Lanka,
probably because many would assume that it’s now a done deal after their first
test walkover.
That was an excellent response to a disappointing defeat
against Australia with the series at their mercy and they should be looking to
stamp their claims of being the second best test side in the world again –
along with their unpcoming clash with England next summer.
As far as I’m concerned the result looks like a formality
with Sri Lanka looking like a team in regression unable to build partnerships –
their highest in the first Innings was just 54 and three out of the highest 5
match partnerships in the match (don’t forget that South Africa won by an
Innings) were held by the Proteas.
Statisicians will be wary of the fact that the last time
South Africa won a Test at Kingsmead was in 2008, against West Indies, but
since then, they’ve lost to Australia, England and India, all of whom are
superior to this Sri Lanka side.
Talisman Kumar Sangakarra seems to have lost his best touch
over the past few months while the highest individual score was just 38 in the
first innings – it was 32 in the second – which shows some serious issues at
the heart of their batting.
In fact, in eight of their last 9 tests Sri Lanka have
conceded a first innings lead – on no occasions did that lead drop below 112,
which makes the line that Sportingbet offer well worth taking on the first
innings lead handicap.
This can be exploited through Ladbrokes’ match betting
handicaps, which see Graham Smith being asked to give eight runs and a beating
to Tillakaratne Dilshan, who scored 6 in both innings at Centurion. Smith
meanwhile, made 37, 101, 11 and 36 against Australia in the two match series
and should be looking to make a half century at least again.
If Jacques Rudolph – who arrived at Kingsmead two days before
the rest of the South Africa players to start early practice – can get his act
together then one might fancy him enough to outperform Tharanga Paranavitana,
but the in and out performances of the opener, who has scored
29,0,0,55,46,2,37,0,6,72,4,76,32 & 4 put me off as Rudolph has had a
problem converting good starts. Since his recall to the Rudolph has scored 18,
14, 30, 24, and 44, which isn’t quite solid enough to make him a bet.
Hashim Amla has the same problem from a betting perspective.
Two hundreds against Australia confirmed his status as one of the best in the
game but those were accompanied by scores of 3 and 19 and he made just 18 in at
Centurion. Sangakarra has lost his touch too (scores of just 1 and 2 on this
tour) but could well bounce back and he has a great all round record, while not
convincing on a recent basis.
Given the reliability of Mayhela Jayawardenene, I’ll spare
asking Jacques Kallis to give 5 runs and a beating to the latter named, but AB
De Villers, so unlucky not to get a century at Centurion, can add to his
excellent record here – he averages just under 45 at the venue – which would
see him give 10 runs and a beating to the solid but unspectacular looking Thilan
Samaraweera, while Angelo Prince could also prove vulnerable based on his dodgy
form of late, although neither constitutes a major bet.
Advice
3 pts South Africa -111.5 on First innings lead handicap
(10/11 Sportingbet)
1 pt AB De Villers – 9.5 v Thilan Samaraweera (5/6
Labdrokes)
1 pt Graham Smith -7.5 v Tillakaratne Dilshan (5/6
Ladbrokes)
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