Following the comprehensive wins over Australia and India
that made England the No 1 test side in the world, no team has yet to put up a
credible challenge to their crown, which is part of the reason that this series
between two of the world's leading sides.
Since their Ashes defeat, inquires have been ordered,
chances made, and most importantly, new talents found in the bowling department.
This seems to be far more conclusive than India, who haven’t really made any significant
improvement since – apart from finding the admittedly impressive Virat Kohli –
and their one series against the West Indies was in India, which is a futile exercise
given that a large part of their failings have come away from home against
proper fast bowling.
India are by no means hopeless – Indeed, a best price of 3’s
can be made to look very big if their middle and top order show up on their
game – but more of their chance than is comfortable relies on the fitness of
Zaheer Khan and their record in Australia (never won a test) or away in
general, with defeats against England, Sri Lanka, and South Africa recently.
Australia may have serious problems of collapsing at any
given moment – they slumped to a test against New Zealand because of said
problem – but they’ve begun their rebuilding problem a lot faster than the
visitors have, which is proven by these stats (remember, this is from a defeat
to a side ranked only above Bangladesh in the ICC rankings) - James Pattinson (14 wickets), Nathan Lyon (10
wickets), David Warner (153 runs) – while Pat Cummings, who won Australia their
test in Johannesburg, is still to come back into the sides.
At the very least, Ed Cowan is among the runs, Ben
Hilfenhaus has improved since his poor Ashes (and faces an easier task any way
this time round), Michtell Starc bowled well against New Zealand and the rest
of the squad includes established names like Michael Hussey, Brad Haddin, and
Cpatain Michael Clarke.
India can call on a top class resume too – Dravid (319), VVX
Laxman (298), Shewag (245), Tendulkar (218), Ghambir (195) and MS Dohni (165) –
all scored well against the West Indies, but all apart from MS Dohni and Rahul
Dravid struggled badly against proper quicks back in the summer and there are
worries about the same happening here to a similar extent.
With that in mind, the 2-1 series correct score (in favour of
the hosts) is an interesting bet. It’s been the final result in the last two
home series for the Wallabies and with their quick bowling, along with their
collapses of late, makes it an interesting option.
A best price of 13/10 for Australia to win the series is a
little too short for my linking – you can get the same price on them winning an
individual test on their own – and none of the other prices available really
take interest either, with India just a tad too short at 3/1 to consider value.
India’s bowling looks light, unless you count Zaheer Khan.
He’s the best fast bowler that India have and could be a class above, but he’s
nowhere near fully fit – he’s bolwed only 15 overs on the tour – and he could
take too much time to warm up to the task. With Praveen Kumar unavailable
(injured rib) and Ishant Sharma no fitter than Khan, it’s a market best left
(neither spinner convinces).
There’s more strength in depth to Australia’s bowling but
James Pattinson, 15 wickets against New Zealand, might be worth a bet to
outperform Peter Siddle and the rest of the Australian bowlers. He’s got no Pat
Cummings to deal with and should be given more over than the 60.8 he was given
in relation to Siddle’s 78, so probably shouldn’t be 2 points bigger with
Victor Chandler. Nathan Lyon’s price of 5/1 with Stan James is beginning to
look a bit big but the advantage may be with the quicks given Indian batsmen ability’s
to play spin.
Indian battling was abysmal against England and while much
improved against the West Indies, they face a tougher test here. If the top
order struggle again then MS Dohni could be given a bigger crack at things – he
barely gets a chance when India are dominant – and prices of 14/1 in places are
an insult to his abilities. Ladbrokes are only 12/1 but they allow for 1/5th
the odds a place and that looks more than fair.
Australia’s charge may well be led by Michael Clarke, who
has top scored on the last two tours and will be looking to make it a hat trick
on this tour. India’s possible weakness in the quick bowling department should
help him in this department and while there are several others capable of
taking the top title, there’s an assured class about the batsmen which leads me
to thinking that he’ll be the most reliable on this tour.
Advice
1 pt 2 – 1 Australia (11/2 general)
1 pt each/way MS Dohni top Indian runscorer (12/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt Michael Clarke top Australian runscorer (4/1 Ladbrokes)
1 pt James Pattinson top Australian bowler (7/2 VC Bet)
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